Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Madsen MS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5784406 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Inflated Uncertainty in Multimodel-Based Regional Climate Projections.
Madsen Marianne Sloth MS Langen Peter L PL Boberg Fredrik F Christensen Jens Hesselbjerg JH
Geophysical research letters 20171123 22
Multimodel ensembles are widely analyzed to estimate the range of future regional climate change projections. For an ensemble of climate models, the result is often portrayed by showing maps of the geographical distribution of the multimodel mean results and associated uncertainties represented by model spread at the grid point scale. Here we use a set of CMIP5 models to show that presenting statistics this way results in an overestimation of the projected range leading to physically implausible ...[more]
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