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Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model.

ABSTRACT: To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS).We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged > or =14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emílio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of the lungs and others organs were determined. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent predictors of LPHS. A prospective validation cohort of 97 subjects with severe form of leptospirosis admitted at the same hospital between 2004 and 2006 was used to independently evaluate the predictive value of the model.The overall mortality rate was 7.9%. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that five factors were independently associated with the development of LPHS: serum potassium (mmol/L) (OR = 2.6; 95% CI = 1.1-5.9); serum creatinine (micromol/L) (OR = 1.2; 95% CI = 1.1-1.4); respiratory rate (breaths/min) (OR = 1.1; 95% CI = 1.1-1.2); presenting shock (OR = 69.9; 95% CI = 20.1-236.4), and Glasgow Coma Scale Score (GCS) < 15 (OR = 7.7; 95% CI = 1.3-23.0). We used these findings to calculate the risk of LPHS by the use of a spreadsheet. In the validation cohort, the equation classified correctly 92% of patients (Kappa statistic = 0.80).We developed and validated a multivariate model for predicting LPHS. This tool should prove useful in identifying LPHS patients, allowing earlier management and thereby reducing mortality.

SUBMITTER: Marotto PC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3921886 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model.

Marotto Paulo C F PC Ko Albert I AI Murta-Nascimento Cristiane C Seguro Antonio C AC Prado Rogerio R RR Barbosa Marcia C MC Cleto Sergio A SA Eluf-Neto José J

The Journal of infection 20091221 3

<h4>Objective</h4>To identify prediction factors for the development of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome (LPHS).<h4>Methods</h4>We conducted a prospective cohort study. The study comprised of 203 patients, aged > or =14 years, admitted with complications of the severe form of leptospirosis at the Emílio Ribas Institute of Infectology (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1998 and 2004. Laboratory and demographic data were obtained and the severity of illness score and involvement of ...[more]

PMID: 20026189

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Project description:BackgroundDogs with leptospirosis show similar organ manifestations and disease course as human patients, including acute kidney injury and pulmonary hemorrhage, making this naturally-occurring infection a good animal model for human leptospirosis. Expression patterns of cytokines and enzymes have been correlated with disease manifestations and clinical outcome in humans and animals. The aim of this study was to describe mRNA expression of pro- and anti-inflammatory mediators in canine leptospirosis and to compare it with other renal diseases to identify patterns characterizing the disease and especially its pulmonary form.Methodology and principal findingsThe mRNA abundance of cytokines (IL-1α, IL-1β, IL-8, IL-10, TNF-α, TGF-β) and enzymes (5-LO, iNOS) was measured prospectively in blood leukocytes from 34 dogs with severe leptospirosis and acute kidney injury, including 22 dogs with leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhages. Dogs with leptospirosis were compared to 14 dogs with acute kidney injury of other origin than leptospirosis, 8 dogs with chronic kidney disease, and 10 healthy control dogs. Canine leptospirosis was characterized by high 5-LO and low TNF-α expression compared to other causes of acute kidney injury, although the decreased TNF-α expression was also seen in chronic kidney disease. Leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage was not characterized by a specific pattern, with only mild changes noted, including increased IL-10 and decreased 5-LO expression on some days in affected dogs. Fatal outcome from pulmonary hemorrhages was associated with low TNF-α, high IL-1β, and high iNOS expression, a pattern possibly expressed also in dogs with other forms of acute kidney injury.ConclusionThe patterns of cytokine and enzyme expression observed in the present study indicate a complex pro- and anti-inflammatory response to the infection with leptospires. The recognition of these signatures may be of diagnostic and prognostic relevance for affected individuals and they may indicate options for newer therapies targeting the identified pathways.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy is the leading cause of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in children and young adults. Our objective was to develop and validate a SCD risk prediction model in pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to guide SCD prevention strategies. METHODS:In an international multicenter observational cohort study, phenotype-positive patients with isolated hypertrophic cardiomyopathy <18 years of age at diagnosis were eligible. The primary outcome variable was the time from diagnosis to a composite of SCD events at 5-year follow-up: SCD, resuscitated sudden cardiac arrest, and aborted SCD, that is, appropriate shock following primary prevention implantable cardioverter defibrillators. Competing risk models with cause-specific hazard regression were used to identify and quantify clinical and genetic factors associated with SCD. The cause-specific regression model was implemented using boosting, and tuned with 10 repeated 4-fold cross-validations. The final model was fitted using all data with the tuned hyperparameter value that maximizes the c-statistic, and its performance was characterized by using the c-statistic for competing risk models. The final model was validated in an independent external cohort (SHaRe [Sarcomeric Human Cardiomyopathy Registry], n=285). RESULTS:Overall, 572 patients met eligibility criteria with 2855 patient-years of follow-up. The 5-year cumulative proportion of SCD events was 9.1% (14 SCD, 25 resuscitated sudden cardiac arrests, and 14 aborted SCD). Risk predictors included age at diagnosis, documented nonsustained ventricular tachycardia, unexplained syncope, septal diameter z-score, left ventricular posterior wall diameter z score, left atrial diameter z score, peak left ventricular outflow tract gradient, and presence of a pathogenic variant. Unlike in adults, left ventricular outflow tract gradient had an inverse association, and family history of SCD had no association with SCD. Clinical and clinical/genetic models were developed to predict 5-year freedom from SCD. Both models adequately discriminated between patients with and without SCD events with a c-statistic of 0.75 and 0.76, respectively, and demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed events in the primary and validation cohorts (validation c-statistic 0.71 and 0.72, respectively). CONCLUSION:Our study provides a validated SCD risk prediction model with >70% prediction accuracy and incorporates risk factors that are unique to pediatric hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. An individualized risk prediction model has the potential to improve the application of clinical practice guidelines and shared decision making for implantable cardioverter defibrillator insertion. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT0403679.

Dataset Information

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model.

Publications

Early identification of leptospirosis-associated pulmonary hemorrhage syndrome by use of a validated prediction model.

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