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Risk of thyroid cancer based on thyroid ultrasound imaging characteristics: results of a population-based study.

ABSTRACT: There is wide variation in the management of thyroid nodules identified on ultrasound imaging.To quantify the risk of thyroid cancer associated with thyroid nodules based on ultrasound imaging characteristics.Retrospective case-control study of patients who underwent thyroid ultrasound imaging from January 1, 2000, through March 30, 2005. Thyroid cancers were identified through linkage with the California Cancer Registry.A total of 8806 patients underwent 11,618 thyroid ultrasound examinations during the study period, including 105 subsequently diagnosed as having thyroid cancer. Thyroid nodules were common in patients diagnosed as having cancer (96.9%) and patients not diagnosed as having thyroid cancer (56.4%). Three ultrasound nodule characteristics--microcalcifications (odds ratio [OR], 8.1; 95% CI, 3.8-17.3), size greater than 2 cm (OR, 3.6; 95% CI, 1.7-7.6), and an entirely solid composition (OR, 4.0; 95% CI, 1.7-9.2)--were the only findings associated with the risk of thyroid cancer. If 1 characteristic is used as an indication for biopsy, most cases of thyroid cancer would be detected (sensitivity, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.80-0.94), with a high false-positive rate (0.44; 95% CI, 0.43-0.45) and a low positive likelihood ratio (2.0; 95% CI, 1.8-2.2), and 56 biopsies will be performed per cancer diagnosed. If 2 characteristics were required for biopsy, the sensitivity and false-positive rates would be lower (sensitivity, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.42-0.62; false-positive rate, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.07-0.08), the positive likelihood ratio would be higher (7.1; 95% CI, 6.2-8.2), and only 16 biopsies will be performed per cancer diagnosed. Compared with performing biopsy of all thyroid nodules larger than 5 mm, adoption of this more stringent rule requiring 2 abnormal nodule characteristics to prompt biopsy would reduce unnecessary biopsies by 90% while maintaining a low risk of cancer (5 per 1000 patients for whom biopsy is deferred).Thyroid ultrasound imaging could be used to identify patients who have a low risk of cancer for whom biopsy could be deferred. On the basis of these results, these findings should be validated in a large prospective cohort.

SUBMITTER: Smith-Bindman R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3936789 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk of thyroid cancer based on thyroid ultrasound imaging characteristics: results of a population-based study.

Smith-Bindman Rebecca R Lebda Paulette P Feldstein Vickie A VA Sellami Dorra D Goldstein Ruth B RB Brasic Natasha N Jin Chengshi C Kornak John J

JAMA internal medicine 20131001 19

<h4>Importance</h4>There is wide variation in the management of thyroid nodules identified on ultrasound imaging.<h4>Objective</h4>To quantify the risk of thyroid cancer associated with thyroid nodules based on ultrasound imaging characteristics.<h4>Methods</h4>Retrospective case-control study of patients who underwent thyroid ultrasound imaging from January 1, 2000, through March 30, 2005. Thyroid cancers were identified through linkage with the California Cancer Registry.<h4>Results</h4>A tota ...[more]

PMID: 23978950

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Project description:BackgroundIncidence rates of thyroid cancer in Ontario have increased more rapidly than those of any other cancer, whereas mortality rates have remained relatively stable. We evaluated the extent to which incidental detection of differentiated thyroid cancer during unrelated prediagnostic imaging procedures contributed to Ontario's incidence rates.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study involving Ontarians who received a diagnosis of differentiated thyroid cancer from 1998 to 2017 using linked health care administrative databases. We classified cases as incidentally detected if a nonthyroid diagnostic imaging test (e.g., computed tomography [CT]) preceded an index event (e.g., prediagnostic fine-needle aspiration biopsy); all other cases were nonincidentally detected cases. We used Joinpoint and negative binomial regressions to characterize sex-specific rates of differentiated thyroid cancer by incidentally detected status and to quantify potential age, diagnosis period and birth cohort effects.ResultsThe study included 36 531 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer, of which 78.7% were female. Incidentally detected cases increased from 7.0% to 11.0% of female patients and from 13.5% to 18.2% of male patients over the study period. Age-standardized incidence rates increased more rapidly for incidentally detected cases (4.2-fold for female and 3.7-fold for male patients) than for nonincidentally detected cases (2.6-fold for female and 3.0-fold for male patients; p < 0.001). Diagnosis period was the primary factor associated with increased incidence rates of differentiated thyroid cancer, adjusting for other factors. Within each period, incidentally detected rates increased faster than nonincidentally detected rates, adjusting for age. Our results showed that CT was the most common imaging procedure preceding incidentally detected diagnoses.InterpretationIncidentally detected cases represent a large and increasing component of the observed increases in differentiated thyroid cancer in Ontario over the past 20 years, and CT scans are primarily associated with these cases despite the modality having similar, increasing rates of use compared with magnetic resonance imaging (1993-2004). Recent increases in rates of differentiated thyroid cancer among males and incidentally detected cases among females in Ontario appear to be unrelated to birth cohort effects.

Dataset Information

Risk of thyroid cancer based on thyroid ultrasound imaging characteristics: results of a population-based study.

Publications

Risk of thyroid cancer based on thyroid ultrasound imaging characteristics: results of a population-based study.

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