Dataset Information

Pluvials, droughts, the Mongol Empire, and modern Mongolia.

ABSTRACT: Although many studies have associated the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate, few have investigated the connection between an ameliorating environment, surplus resources, energy, and the rise of empires. The 13th-century Mongol Empire was the largest contiguous land empire in world history. Although drought has been proposed as one factor that spurred these conquests, no high-resolution moisture data are available during the rapid development of the Mongol Empire. Here we present a 1,112-y tree-ring reconstruction of warm-season water balance derived from Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) trees in central Mongolia. Our reconstruction accounts for 56% of the variability in the regional water balance and is significantly correlated with steppe productivity across central Mongolia. In combination with a gridded temperature reconstruction, our results indicate that the regional climate during the conquests of Chinggis Khan's (Genghis Khan's) 13th-century Mongol Empire was warm and persistently wet. This period, characterized by 15 consecutive years of above-average moisture in central Mongolia and coinciding with the rise of Chinggis Khan, is unprecedented over the last 1,112 y. We propose that these climate conditions promoted high grassland productivity and favored the formation of Mongol political and military power. Tree-ring and meteorological data also suggest that the early 21st-century drought in central Mongolia was the hottest drought in the last 1,112 y, consistent with projections of warming over Inner Asia. Future warming may overwhelm increases in precipitation leading to similar heat droughts, with potentially severe consequences for modern Mongolia.

SUBMITTER: Pederson N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3970536 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pluvials, droughts, the Mongol Empire, and modern Mongolia.

Pederson Neil N Hessl Amy E AE Baatarbileg Nachin N Anchukaitis Kevin J KJ Di Cosmo Nicola N

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20140310 12

Although many studies have associated the demise of complex societies with deteriorating climate, few have investigated the connection between an ameliorating environment, surplus resources, energy, and the rise of empires. The 13th-century Mongol Empire was the largest contiguous land empire in world history. Although drought has been proposed as one factor that spurred these conquests, no high-resolution moisture data are available during the rapid development of the Mongol Empire. Here we pre ...[more]

PMID: 24616521

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Project description:Mongolia is located in a strategic position at the eastern edge of the Eurasian Steppe. Nomadic populations moved across this wide area for millennia before developing more sedentary communities, extended empires, and complex trading networks, which connected western Eurasia and eastern Asia until the late Medieval period. We provided a fine-grained portrait of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation observed in present-day Mongolians and capable of revealing gene flows and other demographic processes that took place in Inner Asia, as well as in western Eurasia. The analyses of a novel dataset (N = 2,420) of mtDNAs highlighted a clear matrilineal differentiation within the country due to a mixture of haplotypes with eastern Asian (EAs) and western Eurasian (WEu) origins, which were differentially lost and preserved. In a wider genetic context, the prevalent EAs contribution, larger in eastern and central Mongolian regions, revealed continuous connections with neighboring Asian populations until recent times, as attested by the geographically restricted haplotype-sharing likely facilitated by the Genghis Khan's so-called Pax Mongolica. The genetic history beyond the WEu haplogroups, notably detectable on both sides of Mongolia, was more difficult to explain. For this reason, we moved to the analysis of entire mitogenomes (N = 147). Although it was not completely possible to identify specific lineages that evolved in situ, two major changes in the effective (female) population size were reconstructed. The more recent one, which began during the late Pleistocene glacial period and became steeper in the early Holocene, was probably the outcome of demographic events connected to western Eurasia. The Neolithic growth could be easily explained by the diffusion of dairy pastoralism, as already proposed, while the late glacial increase indicates, for the first time, a genetic connection with western Eurasian refuges, as supported by the unusual high frequency and internal sub-structure in Mongolia of haplogroup H1, a well-known post-glacial marker in Europe. Bronze Age events, without a significant demographic impact, might explain the age of some mtDNA haplogroups. Finally, a diachronic comparison with available ancient mtDNAs made it possible to link six mitochondrial lineages of present-day Mongolians to the timeframe and geographic path of the Silk Route.

Project description:Extreme droughts have been recurrent in the Amazon over the past decades, causing socio-economic and environmental impacts. Here, we investigate the vulnerability of Amazonian forests, both undisturbed and human-modified, to repeated droughts. We defined vulnerability as a measure of (i) exposure, which is the degree to which these ecosystems were exposed to droughts, and (ii) its sensitivity, measured as the degree to which the drought has affected remote sensing-derived forest greenness. The exposure was calculated by assessing the meteorological drought, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the maximum cumulative water deficit (MCWD), which is related to vegetation water stress, from 1981 to 2016. The sensitivity was assessed based on the enhanced vegetation index anomalies (AEVI), derived from the newly available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction algorithm (MAIAC) product, from 2003 to 2016, which is indicative of forest's photosynthetic capacity. We estimated that 46% of the Brazilian Amazon biome was under severe to extreme drought in 2015/2016 as measured by the SPI, compared with 16% and 8% for the 2009/2010 and 2004/2005 droughts, respectively. The most recent drought (2015/2016) affected the largest area since the drought of 1981. Droughts tend to increase the variance of the photosynthetic capacity of Amazonian forests as based on the minimum and maximum AEVI analysis. However, the area showing a reduction in photosynthetic capacity prevails in the signal, reaching more than 400 000 km2 of forests, four orders of magnitude larger than areas with AEVI enhancement. Moreover, the intensity of the negative AEVI steadily increased from 2005 to 2016. These results indicate that during the analysed period drought impacts were being exacerbated through time. Forests in the twenty-first century are becoming more vulnerable to droughts, with larger areas intensively and negatively responding to water shortage in the region.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Dataset Information

Pluvials, droughts, the Mongol Empire, and modern Mongolia.

Publications

Pluvials, droughts, the Mongol Empire, and modern Mongolia.

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