Dataset Information

Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, we develop a model of the contagious spread of information in a global-scale, publicly-articulated social network and show that a simple method can yield not just early detection, but advance warning of contagious outbreaks. In this method, we randomly choose a small fraction of nodes in the network and then we randomly choose a friend of each node to include in a group for local monitoring. Using six months of data from most of the full Twittersphere, we show that this friend group is more central in the network and it helps us to detect viral outbreaks of the use of novel hashtags about 7 days earlier than we could with an equal-sized randomly chosen group. Moreover, the method actually works better than expected due to network structure alone because highly central actors are both more active and exhibit increased diversity in the information they transmit to others. These results suggest that local monitoring is not just more efficient, but also more effective, and it may be applied to monitor contagious processes in global-scale networks.

SUBMITTER: Garcia-Herranz M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3981694 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

Garcia-Herranz Manuel M Moro Esteban E Cebrian Manuel M Christakis Nicholas A NA Fowler James H JH

PloS one 20140409 4

Recent research has focused on the monitoring of global-scale online data for improved detection of epidemics, mood patterns, movements in the stock market political revolutions, box-office revenues, consumer behaviour and many other important phenomena. However, privacy considerations and the sheer scale of data available online are quickly making global monitoring infeasible, and existing methods do not take full advantage of local network structure to identify key nodes for monitoring. Here, ...[more]

PMID: 24718030

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Project description:AimThis study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of emerging airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks worldwide.Subject and methodsWe conducted a systematic literature review on outbreaks of emerging airborne viral infectious diseases and calculated outbreak number and intensity at the country level. Fisher's exact test was used to compare the viral infectious diseases outbreaks in different income-level regions. To identify the major airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks, we ranked and extracted the leading viral infectious diseases in outbreak number and intensity in each country by year.ResultsA total of 2505 outbreaks were reported from 1873 to 2021 across 2010 studies. There were 47 countries (47/130, 36.15%) with more frequent emerging airborne viral infectious disease outbreaks (more than nine outbreaks), and these countries mainly distributed in high-income regions (22/47 countries, 46.81%, p < 0.05), especially in Western Europe (14/47 countries, 29.79%, p < 0.05). The number of overall outbreaks was more in the United States and China than in other countries in different years. Outbreaks of measles and influenza are always frequent and intense. Highly pathogenic human coronaviruses infection caused short-term pandemics during which their outbreak number and intensity exceeded other viruses. Rift valley fever outbreaks in the human population are spreading outside of Africa through the flow of goods and travelers.ConclusionCountries in high-income regions reported more emerging airborne viral infectious diseases outbreaks, especially in the Western European region, the United States, and China. It is urgent to strengthen collaborative surveillance of emerging airborne viruses, cross-border flow of goods and travelers, and ecological environment to avoid the spread of viral infectious diseases outbreaks worldwide.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-023-01850-3.

Project description:Genomic epidemiology of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) could transform outbreak investigations, but its clinical introduction is hampered by the lack of automated data analysis tools to rapidly and accurately define transmission based on sequence relatedness. We aimed to evaluate a fully automated bioinformatics system for MRSA genome analysis versus a bespoke researcher-led manual informatics pipeline. We analyzed 781 MRSA genomes from 777 consecutive patients identified over a 9-month period in a clinical microbiology laboratory in the United Kingdom. Outputs were bacterial species identification, detection of mec genes, assignment to sequence types (STs), identification of pairwise relatedness using a definition of ≤25 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) apart, and use of genetic relatedness to identify clusters. There was full concordance between the two analysis methods for species identification, detection of mec genes, and ST assignment. A total of 3,311 isolate pairs ≤25 SNPs apart were identified by at least one method. These had a median (range) SNP difference between the two methods of 1.2 SNPs (0 to 22 SNPs), with most isolate pairs (87%) varying by ≤2 SNPs. This similarity increased when the research pipeline was modified to use a clonal-complex-specific reference (median 0 SNP difference, 91% varying by ≤2 SNPs). Both pipelines clustered 338 isolates/334 patients into 66 unique clusters based on genetic relatedness. We conclude that the automated transmission detection tool worked at least as well as a researcher-led manual analysis and indicates how such tools could support the rapid use of MRSA genomic epidemiology in infection control practice. IMPORTANCE It has been clearly established that genome sequencing of MRSA improves the accuracy of health care-associated outbreak investigations, including the confirmation and exclusion of outbreaks and identification of patients involved. This could lead to more targeted infection control actions but its use in clinical practice is prevented by several barriers, one of which is the availability of genome analysis tools that do not depend on specialist knowledge to analyze or interpret the results. We evaluated a prototype of a fully automated bioinformatics system for MRSA genome analysis versus a bespoke researcher-led manual informatics pipeline, using genomes from 777 patients over a period of 9 months. The performance was at least equivalent to the researcher-led manual genomic analysis. This indicates the feasibility of automated analysis and represents one more step toward the routine use of pathogen sequencing in infection prevention and control practice.

Dataset Information

Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

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Using friends as sensors to detect global-scale contagious outbreaks.

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