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Improving genetic risk prediction by leveraging pleiotropy.

ABSTRACT: An important task of human genetics studies is to predict accurately disease risks in individuals based on genetic markers, which allows for identifying individuals at high disease risks, and facilitating their disease treatment and prevention. Although hundreds of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have been conducted on many complex human traits in recent years, there has been only limited success in translating these GWAS data into clinically useful risk prediction models. The predictive capability of GWAS data is largely bottlenecked by the available training sample size due to the presence of numerous variants carrying only small to modest effects. Recent studies have shown that different human traits may share common genetic bases. Therefore, an attractive strategy to increase the training sample size and hence improve the prediction accuracy is to integrate data from genetically correlated phenotypes. Yet, the utility of genetic correlation in risk prediction has not been explored in the literature. In this paper, we analyzed GWAS data for bipolar and related disorders and schizophrenia with a bivariate ridge regression method, and found that jointly predicting the two phenotypes could substantially increase prediction accuracy as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We also found similar prediction accuracy improvements when we jointly analyzed GWAS data for Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. The empirical observations were substantiated through our comprehensive simulation studies, suggesting that a gain in prediction accuracy can be obtained by combining phenotypes with relatively high genetic correlations. Through both real data and simulation studies, we demonstrated pleiotropy can be leveraged as a valuable asset that opens up a new opportunity to improve genetic risk prediction in the future.

SUBMITTER: Li C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3988249 | biostudies-literature | 2014 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAccurately quantifying the risk of osteoporotic fracture is important for directing appropriate clinical interventions. While skeletal measures such as heel quantitative speed of sound (SOS) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mineral density are able to predict the risk of osteoporotic fracture, the utility of such measurements is subject to the availability of equipment and human resources. Using data from 341,449 individuals of white British ancestry, we previously developed a genome-wide polygenic risk score (PRS), called gSOS, that captured 25.0% of the total variance in SOS. Here, we test whether gSOS can improve fracture risk prediction.MethodsWe examined the predictive power of gSOS in five genome-wide genotyped cohorts, including 90,172 individuals of European ancestry and 25,034 individuals of Asian ancestry. We calculated gSOS for each individual and tested for the association between gSOS and incident major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture. We tested whether adding gSOS to the risk prediction models had added value over models using other commonly used clinical risk factors.ResultsA standard deviation decrease in gSOS was associated with an increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in populations of European ancestry, with odds ratios ranging from 1.35 to 1.46 in four cohorts. It was also associated with a 1.26-fold (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-1.41) increased odds of incident major osteoporotic fracture in the Asian population. We demonstrated that gSOS was more predictive of incident major osteoporotic fracture (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) = 0.734; 95% CI 0.727-0.740) and incident hip fracture (AUROC = 0.798; 95% CI 0.791-0.805) than most traditional clinical risk factors, including prior fracture, use of corticosteroids, rheumatoid arthritis, and smoking. We also showed that adding gSOS to the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) could refine the risk prediction with a positive net reclassification index ranging from 0.024 to 0.072.ConclusionsWe generated and validated a PRS for SOS which was associated with the risk of fracture. This score was more strongly associated with the risk of fracture than many clinical risk factors and provided an improvement in risk prediction. gSOS should be explored as a tool to improve risk stratification to identify individuals at high risk of fracture.

Project description:Genetic association studies of many heritable traits resulting from physiological testing often have modest sample sizes due to the cost and burden of the required phenotyping. This reduces statistical power and limits discovery of multiple genetic associations. We present a strategy to leverage pleiotropy between traits to both discover new loci and to provide mechanistic hypotheses of the underlying pathophysiology. Specifically, we combine a colocalization test with a locus-level test of pleiotropy. In simulations, we show that this approach is highly selective for identifying true pleiotropy driven by the same causative variant, thereby improves the chance to replicate the associations in underpowered validation cohorts and leads to higher interpretability. Here, as an exemplar, we use Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA), a common disorder diagnosed using overnight multi-channel physiological testing. We leverage pleiotropy with relevant cellular and cardio-metabolic phenotypes and gene expression traits to map new risk loci in an underpowered OSA GWAS. We identify several pleiotropic loci harboring suggestive associations to OSA and genome-wide significant associations to other traits, and show that their OSA association replicates in independent cohorts of diverse ancestries. By investigating pleiotropic loci, our strategy allows proposing new hypotheses about OSA pathobiology across many physiological layers. For example, we identify and replicate the pleiotropy across the plateletcrit, OSA and an eQTL of DNA primase subunit 1 (PRIM1) in immune cells. We find suggestive links between OSA, a measure of lung function (FEV1/FVC), and an eQTL of matrix metallopeptidase 15 (MMP15) in lung tissue. We also link a previously known genome-wide significant peak for OSA in the hexokinase 1 (HK1) locus to hematocrit and other red blood cell related traits. Thus, the analysis of pleiotropic associations has the potential to assemble diverse phenotypes into a chain of mechanistic hypotheses that provide insight into the pathogenesis of complex human diseases.

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Improving genetic risk prediction by leveraging pleiotropy.

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