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Priorities for research on meningococcal disease and the impact of serogroup A vaccination in the African meningitis belt.

ABSTRACT: For over 100 years, large epidemics of meningococcal meningitis have occurred every few years in areas of the African Sahel and sub-Sahel known as the African meningitis belt. Until recently, the main approach to the control of these epidemics has been reactive vaccination with a polysaccharide vaccine after an outbreak has reached a defined threshold and provision of easy access to effective treatment but this approach has not prevented the occurrence of new epidemics. Meningococcal conjugate vaccines, which can prevent meningococcal carriage and thus interrupt transmission, may be more effective than polysaccharide vaccines at preventing epidemics. Because the majority of African epidemics have been caused by serogroup A meningococci, a serogroup A polysaccharide/tetanus toxoid protein conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT) has recently been developed. Results from an initial evaluation of the impact of this vaccine on meningococcal disease and meningococcal carriage in Burkina Faso have been encouraging. To review how the research agenda for meningococcal disease in Africa has been changed by the advent of PsA-TT and to define a new set of research priorities for study of meningococcal infection in Africa, a meeting of 41 scientists was held in Dakar, Senegal on April 24th and 25th 2012. The research recommendations developed during the course of this meeting are presented in this paper. The need for enhanced surveillance for meningitis in defined populations with good diagnostic facilities in African countries at risk of epidemics was identified as the highest priority. This is needed to determine the duration of protection against serogroup A meningococcal disease provided by PsA-TT and to determine the risk of disease and carriage caused by meningococci of other serogroups. Other research areas given high priority included identification and validation of serological correlates of protection against meningococcal disease and carriage, development of improved methods for detecting carriage and epidemiological studies aimed at determining the reasons underlying the peculiar epidemiology of meningococcal disease in the African meningitis belt. Minutes and working papers from the meeting are provided in supplementary tables and some of the presentations made at the meeting are available on the MenAfriCar consortium website (www.menafricar.org) and on the web site of the Centers for Disease Control (www.cdc.gov).

SUBMITTER: Dakar discussion group on priorities for research on epidemic meningococcal disease in Africa

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3988351 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Priorities for research on meningococcal disease and the impact of serogroup A vaccination in the African meningitis belt.

Altmann Danny D Aseffa Abraham A Bash Margaret M Basta Nicole N Borrow Ray R Broome Claire C Caugant Dominique D Clark Tom T Collard Jean-Marc JM Djingarey Mamoudou M Goldblatt David D Greenwood Brian B Griffiths Ulla U Hajjeh Rana R Hassan-King Musa M Hugonnet Stephane S Kimball Ann Marie AM LaForce Marc M MacLennan Calman C Maiden Martin C J MC Manigart Olivier O Mayer Leonard L Messonnier Nancy N Moisi Jennifer J Moore Katie K Moto Daugla Doumagoum DD Mueller Judith J Nascimento Maria M Obaro Stephen S Ouedraogo Rasmata R Page Anne-Laure AL Perea Willima W Pluschke Gerd G Preziosi Mari-Pierre MP Sow Samba S Stephens David D Stuart James J Thomson Madeleiene M Tiendrebeogo Sylvestre S Trape Jean-Francois JF Vernet Guy G

Vaccine 20121227 11

For over 100 years, large epidemics of meningococcal meningitis have occurred every few years in areas of the African Sahel and sub-Sahel known as the African meningitis belt. Until recently, the main approach to the control of these epidemics has been reactive vaccination with a polysaccharide vaccine after an outbreak has reached a defined threshold and provision of easy access to effective treatment but this approach has not prevented the occurrence of new epidemics. Meningococcal conjugate v ...[more]

PMID: 23273967

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Project description:ObjectiveThe optimal long-term vaccination strategies to provide population-level protection against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenA) are unknown. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of MenA transmission, colonization, and disease in the African meningitis belt, and used this model to explore the impact of various vaccination strategies.MethodsThe model stratifies the simulated population into groups based on age, infection status, and MenA antibody levels. We defined the model parameters (such as birth and death rates, age-specific incidence rates, and age-specific duration of protection) using published data and maximum likelihood estimation. We assessed the validity of the model by comparing simulated incidence of invasive MenA and prevalence of MenA carriage to observed incidence and carriage data.ResultsThe model fit well to observed age- and season-specific prevalence of carriage (mean pseudo-R2 0.84) and incidence of invasive disease (mean R2 0.89). The model is able to reproduce the observed dynamics of MenA epidemics in the African meningitis belt, including seasonal increases in incidence, with large epidemics occurring every eight to twelve years. Following a mass vaccination campaign of all persons 1-29 years of age, the most effective modeled vaccination strategy is to conduct mass vaccination campaigns every 5 years for children 1-5 years of age. Less frequent campaigns covering broader age groups would also be effective, although somewhat less so. Introducing conjugate MenA vaccine into the EPI vaccination schedule at 9 months of age results in higher predicted incidence than periodic mass campaigns.DiscussionWe have developed the first mathematical model of MenA in Africa to incorporate age structures and progressively waning protection over time. Our model accurately reproduces key features of MenA epidemiology in the African meningitis belt. This model can help policy makers consider vaccine program effectiveness when determining the feasibility and benefits of MenA vaccination strategies.

Project description:BackgroundTo facilitate the interpretation of meningococcal meningitis epidemiology in the "African meningitis belt", we aimed at obtaining serogroup-specific pooled estimates of incidence, carriage and case-carrier ratios for meningococcal meningitis in the African meningitis belt and describe their variations across the endemic, hyperendemic and epidemic context.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies reporting serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis monthly incidence and carriage in the same population and time period. Epidemiological contexts were defined as endemic (wet season, no epidemic), hyperendemic (dry season, no epidemic), and epidemic (dry season, epidemic).FindingsEight studies reporting a total of eighty pairs of serogroup-specific meningococcal meningitis incidence and carriage estimates were included in this review. For serogroup A, changes associated with the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence and from hyperendemic to epidemic incidence were 15-fold and 120-fold respectively. Changes in carriage prevalence associated with both transitions were 1-fold and 30-fold respectively.  For serogroup W and X, the transition from endemic to hyperendemic incidence involved a 4-fold and 1•1-fold increase respectively. Increases in carriage prevalence for the later transition were 7-fold and 1•7-fold respectively. No data were available for the hyperendemic-epidemic transition for these serogroups. Our findings suggested that the regular seasonal variation in serogroup A meningococcal meningitis incidence between the rainy and the dry season could be mainly driven by seasonal change in the ratio of clinical cases to subclinical infections. In contrast appearance of epidemic incidences is related to a substantial increase in transmission and colonisation and to lesser extent with changes in the case-carrier ratio.ConclusionSeasonal change in the rate of progression to disease given carriage together with variations in frequency of carriage transmission should be considered in models attempting to capture the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis and mainly to predict meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt.

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Priorities for research on meningococcal disease and the impact of serogroup A vaccination in the African meningitis belt.

Publications

Priorities for research on meningococcal disease and the impact of serogroup A vaccination in the African meningitis belt.

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