Dataset Information

Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

The optimal long-term vaccination strategies to provide population-level protection against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenA) are unknown. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of MenA transmission, colonization, and disease in the African meningitis belt, and used this model to explore the impact of various vaccination strategies.

Methods

The model stratifies the simulated population into groups based on age, infection status, and MenA antibody levels. We defined the model parameters (such as birth and death rates, age-specific incidence rates, and age-specific duration of protection) using published data and maximum likelihood estimation. We assessed the validity of the model by comparing simulated incidence of invasive MenA and prevalence of MenA carriage to observed incidence and carriage data.

Results

The model fit well to observed age- and season-specific prevalence of carriage (mean pseudo-R2 0.84) and incidence of invasive disease (mean R2 0.89). The model is able to reproduce the observed dynamics of MenA epidemics in the African meningitis belt, including seasonal increases in incidence, with large epidemics occurring every eight to twelve years. Following a mass vaccination campaign of all persons 1-29 years of age, the most effective modeled vaccination strategy is to conduct mass vaccination campaigns every 5 years for children 1-5 years of age. Less frequent campaigns covering broader age groups would also be effective, although somewhat less so. Introducing conjugate MenA vaccine into the EPI vaccination schedule at 9 months of age results in higher predicted incidence than periodic mass campaigns.

Discussion

We have developed the first mathematical model of MenA in Africa to incorporate age structures and progressively waning protection over time. Our model accurately reproduces key features of MenA epidemiology in the African meningitis belt. This model can help policy makers consider vaccine program effectiveness when determining the feasibility and benefits of MenA vaccination strategies.

SUBMITTER: Tartof S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3650081 | biostudies-literature | 2013

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt.

Tartof Sara S Cohn Amanda A Tarbangdo Félix F Djingarey Mamoudou H MH Messonnier Nancy N Clark Thomas A TA Kambou Jean Ludovic JL Novak Ryan R Diomandé Fabien V K FV Medah Isaïe I Jackson Michael L ML

PloS one 20130509 5

<h4>Objective</h4>The optimal long-term vaccination strategies to provide population-level protection against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenA) are unknown. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of MenA transmission, colonization, and disease in the African meningitis belt, and used this model to explore the impact of various vaccination strategies.<h4>Methods</h4>The model stratifies the simulated population into groups based on age, infection status, and MenA antibody level ...[more]

PMID: 23671685

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Project description:In the African "meningitis belt," outbreaks of meningococcal meningitis occur in cycles, representing a model for the role of host-pathogen interactions in epidemic processes. The periodicity of the epidemics is not well understood, nor is it currently possible to predict them. In our longitudinal colonization and disease surveys, we have observed waves of clonal replacement with the same serogroup, suggesting that immunity to noncapsular antigens plays a significant role in natural herd immunity. Here, through comparative genomic analysis of 100 meningococcal isolates, we provide a high-resolution view of the evolutionary changes that occurred during clonal replacement of a hypervirulent meningococcal clone (ST-7) by a descendant clone (ST-2859). We show that the majority of genetic changes are due to homologous recombination of laterally acquired DNA, with more than 20% of these events involving acquisition of DNA from other species. Signals of adaptation to evade herd immunity were indicated by genomic hot spots of recombination. Most striking is the high frequency of changes involving the pgl locus, which determines the glycosylation patterns of major protein antigens. High-frequency changes were also observed for genes involved in the regulation of pilus expression and the synthesis of Maf3 adhesins, highlighting the importance of these surface features in host-pathogen interaction and immune evasion. Importance: While established meningococcal capsule polysaccharide vaccines are protective through the induction of anticapsular antibodies, findings of our longitudinal studies in the African meningitis belt have indicated that immunity to noncapsular antigens plays a significant role in natural herd immunity. Our results show that meningococci evade herd immunity through the rapid homologous replacement of just a few key genomic loci that affect noncapsular cell surface components. Identification of recombination hot spots thus represents an eminent approach to gain insight into targets of protective natural immune responses. Moreover, our results highlight the role of the dynamics of the protein glycosylation repertoire in immune evasion by Neisseria meningitidis. These results have major implications for the design of next-generation protein-based subunit vaccines.

Project description:For over 100 years, large epidemics of meningococcal meningitis have occurred every few years in areas of the African Sahel and sub-Sahel known as the African meningitis belt. Until recently, the main approach to the control of these epidemics has been reactive vaccination with a polysaccharide vaccine after an outbreak has reached a defined threshold and provision of easy access to effective treatment but this approach has not prevented the occurrence of new epidemics. Meningococcal conjugate vaccines, which can prevent meningococcal carriage and thus interrupt transmission, may be more effective than polysaccharide vaccines at preventing epidemics. Because the majority of African epidemics have been caused by serogroup A meningococci, a serogroup A polysaccharide/tetanus toxoid protein conjugate vaccine (PsA-TT) has recently been developed. Results from an initial evaluation of the impact of this vaccine on meningococcal disease and meningococcal carriage in Burkina Faso have been encouraging. To review how the research agenda for meningococcal disease in Africa has been changed by the advent of PsA-TT and to define a new set of research priorities for study of meningococcal infection in Africa, a meeting of 41 scientists was held in Dakar, Senegal on April 24th and 25th 2012. The research recommendations developed during the course of this meeting are presented in this paper. The need for enhanced surveillance for meningitis in defined populations with good diagnostic facilities in African countries at risk of epidemics was identified as the highest priority. This is needed to determine the duration of protection against serogroup A meningococcal disease provided by PsA-TT and to determine the risk of disease and carriage caused by meningococci of other serogroups. Other research areas given high priority included identification and validation of serological correlates of protection against meningococcal disease and carriage, development of improved methods for detecting carriage and epidemiological studies aimed at determining the reasons underlying the peculiar epidemiology of meningococcal disease in the African meningitis belt. Minutes and working papers from the meeting are provided in supplementary tables and some of the presentations made at the meeting are available on the MenAfriCar consortium website (www.menafricar.org) and on the web site of the Centers for Disease Control (www.cdc.gov).

Dataset Information

Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt.

Objective

Methods

Results

Discussion

Publications

Identifying optimal vaccination strategies for serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis conjugate vaccine in the African meningitis belt.

Similar Datasets

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