Model-based investigations of different vector-related intervention strategies to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Stauch A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC3998939 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BACKGROUND:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a disease caused by two known vector-borne parasite species (Leishmania donovani, L. infantum), transmitted to man by phlebotomine sand flies (species: Phlebotomus and Lutzomyia), resulting in ?50,000 human fatalities annually, ?67% occurring on the Indian subcontinent. Indoor residual spraying is the current method of sand fly control in India, but alternative means of vector control, such as the treatment of livestock with systemic insecticide-based drugs, are being evaluated. We describe an individual-based, stochastic, life-stage-structured model that represents a sand fly vector population within a village in India and simulates the effects of vector control via fipronil-based drugs orally administered to cattle, which target both blood-feeding adults and larvae that feed on host feces. PRINCIPLE FINDINGS:Simulation results indicated efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes in reducing sand fly abundance depended on timing of drug applications relative to seasonality of the sand fly life cycle. Taking into account cost-effectiveness and logistical feasibility, two of the most efficacious treatment schemes reduced population peaks occurring from April through August by ?90% (applications 3 times per year at 2-month intervals initiated in March) and >95% (applications 6 times per year at 2-month intervals initiated in January) relative to no control, with the cumulative number of sand fly days occurring April-August reduced by ?83% and ?97%, respectively, and more specifically during the summer months of peak human exposure (June-August) by ?85% and ?97%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS:Our model should prove useful in a priori evaluation of the efficacy of fipronil-based drugs in controlling leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent and beyond.
| S-EPMC4990243 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the Indian subcontinent, about 200 million people are at risk of developing visceral leishmaniasis (VL). In 2005, the governments of India, Nepal and Bangladesh started the first regional VL elimination program with the aim to reduce the annual incidence to less than 1 per 10,000 by 2015. A mathematical model was developed to support this elimination program with basic quantifications of transmission, disease and intervention parameters. This model was used to predict the effects of different intervention strategies.Parameters on the natural history of Leishmania infection were estimated based on a literature review and expert opinion or drawn from a community intervention trial (the KALANET project). The transmission dynamic of Leishmania donovani is rather slow, mainly due to its long incubation period and the potentially long persistence of parasites in infected humans. Cellular immunity as measured by the Leishmanin skin test (LST) lasts on average for roughly one year, and re-infection occurs in intervals of about two years, with variation not specified. The model suggests that transmission of L. donovani is predominantly maintained by asymptomatically infected hosts. Only patients with symptomatic disease were eligible for treatment; thus, in contrast to vector control, the treatment of cases had almost no effect on the overall intensity of transmission.Treatment of Kala-azar is necessary on the level of the individual patient but may have little effect on transmission of parasites. In contrast, vector control or exposure prophylaxis has the potential to efficiently reduce transmission of parasites. Based on these findings, control of VL should pay more attention to vector-related interventions. Cases of PKDL may appear after years and may initiate a new outbreak of disease; interventions should therefore be long enough, combined with an active case detection and include effective treatment.
| S-EPMC3226461 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Leishmania donovani causes visceral leishmaniasis (VL), the second most deadly vector-borne parasitic disease. A recent epidemic in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) caused up to 80% of global VL and over 30,000 deaths per year. Resistance against antimonial drugs has probably been a contributing factor in the persistence of this epidemic. Here we use whole genome sequences from 204 clinical isolates to track the evolution and epidemiology of L. donovani from the ISC. We identify independent radiations that have emerged since a bottleneck coincident with 1960s DDT spraying campaigns. A genetically distinct population frequently resistant to antimonials has a two base-pair insertion in the aquaglyceroporin gene LdAQP1 that prevents the transport of trivalent antimonials. We find evidence of genetic exchange between ISC populations, and show that the mutation in LdAQP1 has spread by recombination. Our results reveal the complexity of L. donovani evolution in the ISC in response to drug treatment.
| S-EPMC4811772 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Visceral leishmaniasis is a systemic parasitic disease that is fatal unless treated. We assessed the cost and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent. In particular we examined whether combination therapies are a cost-effective alternative compared to monotherapies.We assessed the cost-effectiveness of all possible mono- and combination therapies for the treatment of visceral leishmaniasis in the Indian subcontinent (India, Nepal and Bangladesh) from a societal perspective using a decision analytical model based on a decision tree. Primary data collected in each country was combined with data from the literature and an expert poll (Delphi method). The cost per patient treated and average and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios expressed as cost per death averted were calculated. Extensive sensitivity analysis was done to evaluate the robustness of our estimations and conclusions. With a cost of US$92 per death averted, the combination miltefosine-paromomycin was the most cost-effective treatment strategy. The next best alternative was a combination of liposomal amphotericin B with paromomycin with an incremental cost-effectiveness of $652 per death averted. All other strategies were dominated with the exception of a single dose of 10mg per kg of liposomal amphotericin B. While strategies based on liposomal amphotericin B (AmBisome) were found to be the most effective, its current drug cost of US$20 per vial resulted in a higher average cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analysis showed the conclusion to be robust to variations in the input parameters over their plausible range.Combination treatments are a cost-effective alternative to current monotherapy for VL. Given their expected impact on the emergence of drug resistance, a switch to combination therapy should be considered once final results from clinical trials are available.
| S-EPMC2935395 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAs Bangladesh, India and Nepal progress towards visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination, it is important to understand the role of asymptomatic Leishmania infection (ALI), VL treatment relapse and post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) in transmission.Methodology/ principal findingWe reviewed evidence systematically on ALI, relapse and PKDL. We searched multiple databases to include studies on burden, risk factors, biomarkers, natural history, and infectiveness of ALI, PKDL and relapse. After screening 292 papers, 98 were included covering the years 1942 through 2016. ALI, PKDL and relapse studies lacked a reference standard and appropriate biomarker. The prevalence of ALI was 4-17-fold that of VL. The risk of ALI was higher in VL case contacts. Most infections remained asymptomatic or resolved spontaneously. The proportion of ALI that progressed to VL disease within a year was 1.5-23%, and was higher amongst those with high antibody titres. The natural history of PKDL showed variability; 3.8-28.6% had no past history of VL treatment. The infectiveness of PKDL was 32-53%. The risk of VL relapse was higher with HIV co-infection. Modelling studies predicted a range of scenarios. One model predicted VL elimination was unlikely in the long term with early diagnosis. Another model estimated that ALI contributed to 82% of the overall transmission, VL to 10% and PKDL to 8%. Another model predicted that VL cases were the main driver for transmission. Different models predicted VL elimination if the sandfly density was reduced by 67% by killing the sandfly or by 79% by reducing their breeding sites, or with 4-6y of optimal IRS or 10y of sub-optimal IRS and only in low endemic setting.Conclusion/ significanceThere is a need for xenodiagnostic and longitudinal studies to understand the potential of ALI and PKDL as reservoirs of infection.
| S-EPMC4973965 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundControl of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) on the Indian subcontinent relies on prompt detection and treatment of symptomatic cases. Detection efforts influence the observed VL incidence and how well it reflects the underlying true incidence. As control targets are defined in terms of observed cases, there is an urgent need to understand how changes in detection delay and population coverage of improved detection affect VL control.MethodsUsing a mathematical model for transmission and control of VL, we predict the impact of reduced detection delays and/or increased population coverage of the detection programs on observed and true VL incidence and mortality.ResultsImproved case detection, either by higher coverage or reduced detection delay, causes an initial rise in observed VL incidence before a reduction. Relaxation of improved detection may lead to an apparent temporary (1 year) reduction in VL incidence, but comes with a high risk of resurging infection levels. Duration of symptoms in detected cases shows an unequivocal association with detection effort.ConclusionsVL incidence on its own is not a reliable indicator of the performance of case detection programs. Duration of symptoms in detected cases can be used as an additional marker of the performance of case detection programs.
| S-EPMC7289545 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background:Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and 5 countries in the Indian subcontinent for elimination as a public health problem. To achieve this target, the WHO has developed guidelines consisting of 4 phases of different levels of interventions, based on vector control through indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) and active case detection (ACD). Mathematical transmission models of VL are increasingly used for planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions and evaluating the intensity and timescale required to achieve the elimination target. Methods:This paper draws together the key policy-relevant conclusions from recent transmission modeling of VL, and presents new predictions for VL incidence under the interventions recommended by the WHO using the latest transmission models. Results:The model predictions suggest that the current WHO guidelines should be sufficient to reach the elimination target in areas that had medium VL endemicities (up to 5 VL cases per 10000 population per year) prior to the start of interventions. However, additional interventions, such as extending the WHO attack phase (intensive IRS and ACD), may be required to bring forward elimination in regions with high precontrol endemicities, depending on the relative infectiousness of different disease stages. Conclusions:The potential hurdle that asymptomatic and, in particular, post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis cases may pose to reaching and sustaining the target needs to be addressed. As VL incidence decreases, the pool of immunologically naive individuals will grow, creating the potential for new outbreaks.
| S-EPMC5982727 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Whole genome sequencing (WGS) is increasingly used for molecular diagnosis and epidemiology of infectious diseases. Current Leishmania genomic studies rely on DNA extracted from cultured parasites, which might introduce sampling and biological biases into the subsequent analyses. Up to now, direct analysis of Leishmania genome in clinical samples is hampered by high levels of human DNA and large variation in parasite load in clinical samples. Here, we present a method, based on target enrichment of Leishmania donovani DNA with Agilent SureSelect technology, that allows the analysis of Leishmania genomes directly in clinical samples. We validated our protocol with a set of artificially mixed samples, followed by the analysis of 63 clinical samples (bone marrow or spleen aspirates) from visceral leishmaniasis patients in Nepal. We were able to identify genotypes using a set of diagnostic SNPs in almost all of these samples (97%) and access comprehensive genome-wide information in most (83%). This allowed us to perform phylogenomic analysis, assess chromosome copy number and identify large copy number variants (CNVs). Pairwise comparisons between the parasite genomes in clinical samples and derived in vitro cultured promastigotes showed a lower aneuploidy in amastigotes as well as genomic differences, suggesting polyclonal infections in patients. Altogether our results underline the need for sequencing parasite genomes directly in the host samples.
| S-EPMC6932831 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We present three transmission models of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) with structural differences regarding the disease stage that provides the main contribution to transmission, including models with a prominent role of asymptomatic infection, and fit them to recent case data from 8 endemic districts in Bihar, India. Following a geographical cross-validation of the models, we compare their predictions for achieving the WHO VL elimination targets with ongoing treatment and vector control strategies. All the transmission models suggest that the WHO elimination target (<1 new VL case per 10,000 capita per year at sub-district level) is likely to be met in Bihar, India, before or close to 2020 in sub-districts with a pre-control incidence of 10 VL cases per 10,000 people per year or less, when current intervention levels (60% coverage of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide and a delay of 40days from onset of symptoms to treatment (OT)) are maintained, given the accuracy and generalizability of the existing data regarding incidence and IRS coverage. In settings with a pre-control endemicity level of 5/10,000, increasing the effective IRS coverage from 60 to 80% is predicted to lead to elimination of VL 1-3 years earlier (depending on the particular model), and decreasing OT from 40 to 20days to bring elimination forward by approximately 1year. However, in all instances the models suggest that L. donovani transmission will continue after 2020 and thus that surveillance and control measures need to remain in place until the longer-term aim of breaking transmission is achieved.
| S-EPMC5340844 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe decade following the Regional Strategic Framework for Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) elimination in 2005 has shown compelling progress in the reduction of VL burden in the Indian subcontinent. The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases (TDR), hosted by the World Health Organization (WHO) and other stakeholders, has coordinated and financed research for the development of new innovative tools and strategies to support the regional VL elimination initiative. This paper describes the process of the TDR's engagement and contribution to this initiative.Methodology/principal findingsMultiple databases were searched to identify 152 scientific papers and reports with WHO funding or authorship affiliation around the following 3 framework strategies: detection of new cases, morbidity reduction, and prevention of infection. TDR has played a critical role in the evaluation and subsequent use of the 39-aminoacid-recombinant kinesin antigen (rK39) rapid diagnostic test (RDT) as a confirmatory test for VL in the national program. TDR has supported the clinical research and development of miltefosine and single-dose liposomal amphotericin B as a first-line treatment against VL. TDR has engaged with in-country researchers, national programme managers, and partners to generate evidence-based interventions for early detection and treatment of VL patients. TDR evaluated the quality, community acceptance, and cost effectiveness of indoor residual spraying, insecticide-treated bed nets, insecticide-impregnated durable wall linings, insecticidal paint, and environmental management as tools for integrated vector management in reducing sandfly density.Conclusions/significanceTDR's engagement with country policy makers, scientists, and clinicians in the development of effective diagnosis, treatment, case detection, and vector control represents an important example of TDR's stewardship toward the elimination of VL in the Indian subcontinent.
| S-EPMC5638223 | biostudies-literature