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Predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations based on concurrent influenza activity.

ABSTRACT: Although influenza has been associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, it is not clear the extent to which this association affects healthcare use in the United States. The first goal of this project was to determine to what extent the incidence of COPD hospitalizations is associated with seasonal influenza. Second, as a natural experiment, we used influenza activity to help predict COPD admissions during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. To do this, we identified all hospitalizations between 1998 and 2010 in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) during which a primary diagnosis of COPD was recorded. Separately, we identified all hospitalizations during which a diagnosis of influenza was recorded. We formulated time series regression models to investigate the association of monthly COPD admissions with influenza incidence. Finally, we applied these models, fit using 1998-2008 data, to forecast monthly COPD admissions during the 2009 pandemic. Based on time series regression models, a strong, significant association exists between concurrent influenza activity and incidence of COPD hospitalizations (p-value < 0.0001). The association is especially strong among older patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Use of influenza data to predict COPD admissions during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic reduced the mean-squared prediction error by 29.9%. We conclude that influenza activity is significantly associated with COPD hospitalizations in the United States and influenza activity can be exploited to more accurately forecast COPD admissions. Our results suggest that improvements in influenza surveillance, prevention, and treatment may decrease hospitalizations of patients diagnosed with COPD.

SUBMITTER: Gerke AK

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4041214 | biostudies-literature | 2013 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations based on concurrent influenza activity.

Gerke Alicia K AK Tang Fan F Yang Ming M Foster Eric D ED Cavanaugh Joseph E JE Polgreen Philip M PM

COPD 20130702 5

Although influenza has been associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, it is not clear the extent to which this association affects healthcare use in the United States. The first goal of this project was to determine to what extent the incidence of COPD hospitalizations is associated with seasonal influenza. Second, as a natural experiment, we used influenza activity to help predict COPD admissions during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. To do this, we identifie ...[more]

PMID: 23819753

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Project description:RationalePhysical inactivity among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is associated with exacerbations requiring high-cost health care utilization including urgent, emergent, and hospital care.ObjectivesTo examine the effectiveness of a behavioral lifestyle physical activity intervention combined with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease self-management education to prevent high-cost health care utilization.MethodsThis was an analysis of secondary outcomes of the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Self-Management Activation Research Trial, a two-arm randomized trial of stable adult outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease recruited from primary care and pulmonary clinics. Following a 6-week self-management education run-in period, participants were randomized to usual care or to a telephone-delivered home-based health coaching intervention over 20 weeks. Secondary outcomes of physical activity and health care utilization were determined by self-report 6, 12, and 18 months after randomization. Associations between treatment allocation arm and these secondary outcomes were examined using log-binomial and Poisson regression models.ResultsA total of 325 outpatients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were enrolled in the trial. Their average age was 70.3 years (standard deviation, 9.5), and 50.5% were female; 156 were randomized to usual care and 149 to the intervention. A greater proportion of participants reported being persistently active over the 18-month follow-up period in the intervention group (73.6%) compared with the usual care group (57.8%) (mean difference, 15.8%; 95% confidence interval, 4.0-27.7%). This association varied by severity of forced expiratory volume in 1 second impairment (P for interaction = 0.09). Those in the intervention group with moderate impairment (forced expiratory volume in 1 second, 50-70% predicted), more frequently reported being persistently active compared with the usual care (86.0 vs. 65.1%; mean difference, 20.9%; 95% confidence interval, 5.7-36.1%). Patients with severe and very severe forced expiratory volume in 1 second impairment (forced expiratory volume in 1 second < 50% predicted) in the intervention group also reported being persistently active more frequently compared with usual care (63.3 vs. 50.8%; mean difference, 12.6%; 95% confidence interval, -4.7 to 29.8). The intervention was associated with a lower rate of lung-related utilization (adjusted rate ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.23-0.63) only among participants with severe spirometric impairment.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that a feasible and generalizable home-based coaching intervention may decrease sedentary behavior and increase physical activity levels. In those with severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, this intervention may reduce lung disease-related health care utilization. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01108991).

Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the incidence of hip fracture and all major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) compared with non-COPD patients and to evaluate the use and performance of fracture risk prediction tools in patients with COPD. To assess the prevalence and incidence of osteoporosis.DesignPopulation-based cohort study.SettingUK General Practice health records from The Health Improvement Network database.ParticipantsPatients with an incident COPD diagnosis from 2004 to 2015 and non-COPD patients matched by age, sex and general practice were studied.OutcomesIncidence of fracture (hip alone and all MOF); accuracy of fracture risk prediction tools in COPD; and prevalence and incidence of coded osteoporosis.MethodsCox proportional hazards models were used to assess the incidence rates of osteoporosis, hip fracture and MOF (hip, proximal humerus, forearm and clinical vertebral fractures). The discriminatory accuracies (area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve) of fracture risk prediction tools (FRAX and QFracture) in COPD were assessed.ResultsPatients with COPD (n=80?874) were at an increased risk of fracture (both hip alone and all MOF) compared with non-COPD patients (n=308?999), but this was largely mediated through oral corticosteroid use, body mass index and smoking. Retrospectively calculated ROC values for MOF in COPD were as follows: FRAX: 71.4% (95% CI 70.6% to 72.2%), QFracture: 61.4% (95% CI 60.5% to 62.3%) and for hip fracture alone, both 76.1% (95% CI 74.9% to 77.2%). Prevalence of coded osteoporosis was greater for patients (5.7%) compared with non-COPD patients (3.9%), p<0.001. The incidence of osteoporosis was increased in patients with COPD (n=73?084) compared with non-COPD patients (n=264?544) (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.13, 95%?CI 1.05 to 1.22).ConclusionPatients with COPD are at an increased risk of fractures and osteoporosis. Despite this, there is no systematic assessment of fracture risk in clinical practice. Fracture risk tools identify those at high risk of fracture in patients with COPD.

Project description:BackgroundPrior studies have established those elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are at elevated risk for developing influenza-associated complications such as hospitalization, intensive-care admission, and death. This study sought to determine whether influenza vaccination could improve survival among elderly patients with COPD.Materials/methodsThis study included Veterans (age ≥ 65 years) diagnosed with COPD that received care at the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA) during four influenza seasons, from 2012-2013 to 2015-2016. We linked VHA electronic medical records and Medicare administrative files to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Death Index cause of death records as well as influenza surveillance data. A multivariable time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model was used to compare rates of mortality of recipients of influenza vaccination to those who did not have records of influenza vaccination. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for age, gender, race, socioeconomic status, comorbidities, and healthcare utilization.ResultsOver a span of four influenza seasons, we included 1,856,970 person-seasons of observation where 1,199,275 (65%) had a record of influenza vaccination and 657,695 (35%) did not have a record of influenza vaccination. After adjusting for comorbidities, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, influenza vaccination was associated with reduced risk of death during the most severe periods of influenza seasons: 75% all-cause (HR = 0.25; 95% CI: 0.24-0.26), 76% respiratory causes (HR = 0.24; 95% CI: 0.21-0.26), and 82% pneumonia/influenza cause (HR = 0.18; 95% CI: 0.13-0.26). A significant part of the effect could be attributed to "healthy vaccinee" bias as reduced risk of mortality was also found during the periods when there was no influenza activity and before patients received vaccination: 30% all-cause (HR = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.65-0.75), 32% respiratory causes (HR = 0.68; 95% CI: 0.60-0.78), and 51% pneumonia/influenza cause (HR = 0.49; 95% CI: 0.31-0.78). However, as a falsification study, we found that influenza vaccination had no impact on hospitalization due to urinary tract infection (HR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.80-1.18).ConclusionsAmong elderly patients with COPD, influenza vaccination was associated with reduced risk for all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

Project description:Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the most common comorbidities in the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), which increase the risk of hospitalization, length of stay, and death in COPD patients. This study aimed to identify the predictors for CVDs in COPD patients and construct a prediction model based on these predictors. In total, 1022 COPD patients in National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) were involved in the cross-sectional study. All subjects were randomly divided into the training set (n = 709) and testing set (n = 313). The differences before and after the manipulation of the missing data were compared via sensitivity analysis. Univariate and multivariable analyses were employed to screen the predictors of CVDs in COPD patients. The performance of the prediction model was evaluated via the area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), positive predictive value (PPV), and calibration. Subgroup analysis was performed in patients using different COPD diagnosis methods and patients smoking or not smoking in the testing set. We found that male, older age, a smoking history, overweight, a history of blood transfusion, a history of heart disease in close relatives, higher levels of white blood cell (WBC), and monocyte (MONO) were associated with the increased risk of CVDs in COPD patients. Higher levels of platelets (PLT) and lymphocyte (LYM) were associated with reduced risk of CVDs in COPD patients. A prediction model for the risk of CVDs in COPD patients was established based on predictors including gender, age, a smoking history, BMI, a history of blood transfusion, a history of heart disease in close relatives, WBC, MONO, PLT, and LYM. The AUC value of the prediction model was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.71-0.79) in the training set and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.73-0.85) in the testing set. The prediction model established showed good predictive performance in predicting CVDs in COPD patients.

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Predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations based on concurrent influenza activity.

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Predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations based on concurrent influenza activity.

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