Dataset Information

Stochasticity and determinism: how density-independent and density-dependent processes affect population variability.

ABSTRACT: A persistent debate in population ecology concerns the relative importance of environmental stochasticity and density dependence in determining variability in adult year-class strength, which contributes to future reproduction as well as potential yield in exploited populations. Apart from the strength of the processes, the timing of density regulation may affect how stochastic variation, for instance through climate, translates into changes in adult abundance. In this study, we develop a life-cycle model for the population dynamics of a large marine fish population, Northeast Arctic cod, to disentangle the effects of density-independent and density-dependent processes on early life-stages, and to quantify the strength of compensatory density dependence in the population. The model incorporates information from scientific surveys and commercial harvest, and dynamically links multiple effects of intrinsic and extrinsic factors on all life-stages, from eggs to spawners. Using a state-space approach we account for observation error and stochasticity in the population dynamics. Our findings highlight the importance of density-dependent survival in juveniles, indicating that this period of the life cycle largely determines the compensatory capacity of the population. Density regulation at the juvenile life-stage dampens the impact of stochastic processes operating earlier in life such as environmental impacts on the production of eggs and climate-dependent survival of larvae. The timing of stochastic versus regulatory processes thus plays a crucial role in determining variability in adult abundance. Quantifying the contribution of environmental stochasticity and compensatory mechanisms in determining population abundance is essential for assessing population responses to climate change and exploitation by humans.

SUBMITTER: Ohlberger J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4044037 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stochasticity and determinism: how density-independent and density-dependent processes affect population variability.

Ohlberger Jan J Rogers Lauren A LA Stenseth Nils Chr NC

PloS one 20140603 6

A persistent debate in population ecology concerns the relative importance of environmental stochasticity and density dependence in determining variability in adult year-class strength, which contributes to future reproduction as well as potential yield in exploited populations. Apart from the strength of the processes, the timing of density regulation may affect how stochastic variation, for instance through climate, translates into changes in adult abundance. In this study, we develop a life-c ...[more]

PMID: 24893001

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Project description:Understanding population change is essential for conservation of imperiled species, such as amphibians. Worldwide amphibian declines have provided an impetus for investigating their population dynamics, which can involve both extrinsic (density-independent) and intrinsic (density-dependent) drivers acting differentially across multiple life stages or age classes. In this study, we examined the population dynamics of the endangered Barton Springs Salamander (Eurycea sosorum) using data from a long-term monitoring program. We were interested in understanding both the potential environmental drivers (density-independent factors) and demographic factors (interactions among size classes, negative density dependence) to better inform conservation and management activities. We used data from three different monitoring regimes and multivariate autoregressive state-space models to quantify environmental effects (seasonality, discharge, algae, and sediment cover), intraspecific interactions among three size classes, and intra-class density dependence. Results from our primary data set revealed similar patterns among sites and size classes and were corroborated by our out-of-sample data. Cross-correlation analysis showed juvenile abundance was most strongly correlated with a 9-month lag in aquifer discharge, which we suspect is related to inputs of organic carbon into the aquifer. However, sedimentation limited juvenile abundance at the surface, emphasizing the importance of continued sediment management. Recruitment from juveniles to the sub-adult size class was evident, but negative density-dependent feedback ultimately regulated each size class. Negative density dependence may be an encouraging sign for the conservation of E. sosorum because populations that can reach carrying capacity are less likely to go extinct compared to unregulated populations far below their carrying capacity. However, periodic population declines coupled with apparent migration into the aquifer complicate assessments of species status. Although both density-dependent and density-independent drivers of population change are not always apparent in time series of animal populations, both have important implications for conservation and management of E. sosorum.

Dataset Information

Stochasticity and determinism: how density-independent and density-dependent processes affect population variability.

Publications

Stochasticity and determinism: how density-independent and density-dependent processes affect population variability.

Similar Datasets

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