Rates of influenza-like illness and winter school breaks, Chile, 2004-2010.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chowell G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4073857 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:School closures are used to reduce seasonal and pandemic influenza transmission, yet evidence of their effectiveness is sparse. In Argentina, annual winter school breaks occur during the influenza season, providing an opportunity to study this intervention. We used 2005-2008 national weekly surveillance data of visits to a health care provider for influenza-like illness (ILI) from all provinces. Using Serfling-specified Poisson regressions and population-based census denominators, we developed incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for the 3 weeks before, 2 weeks during, and 3 weeks after the break. For persons 5-64 years of age, IRRs were <1 for at least 1 week after the break. Observed rates returned to expected by the third week after the break; overall decrease among persons of all ages was 14%. The largest decrease was among children 5-14 years of age during the week after the break (37% lower IRR). Among adults, effects were weaker and delayed. Two-week winter school breaks significantly decreased visits to a health care provider for ILI among school-aged children and nonelderly adults.
| S-EPMC3713818 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the United States, influenza season typically begins in October or November, peaks in February, and tapers off in April. During the winter holiday break, from the end of December to the beginning of January, changes in social mixing patterns, healthcare-seeking behaviors, and surveillance reporting could affect influenza-like illness (ILI) rates. We compared predicted with observed weekly ILI to examine trends around the winter break period. We examined weekly rates of ILI by region in the United States from influenza season 2003-2004 to 2012-2013. We compared observed and predicted ILI rates from week 44 to week 8 of each influenza season using the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) method. Of 1,530 region, week, and year combinations, 64 observed ILI rates were significantly higher than predicted by the model. Of these, 21 occurred during the typical winter holiday break period (weeks 51-52); 12 occurred during influenza season 2012-2013. There were 46 observed ILI rates that were significantly lower than predicted. Of these, 16 occurred after the typical holiday break during week 1, eight of which occurred during season 2012-2013. Of 90 (10 HHS regions x 9 seasons) predictions during the peak week, 78 predicted ILI rates were lower than observed. Out of 73 predictions for the post-peak week, 62 ILI rates were higher than observed. There were 53 out of 73 models that had lower peak and higher post-peak predicted ILI rates than were actually observed. While most regions had ILI rates higher than predicted during winter holiday break and lower than predicted after the break during the 2012-2013 season, overall there was not a consistent relationship between observed and predicted ILI around the winter holiday break during the other influenza seasons.
| S-EPMC4674102 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: In France, 2-15% of the population is affected annually by influenza, which causes significant socioeconomic disruption. Nevertheless, despite its importance for policy makers, few published studies have evaluated the impact of influenza B. Therefore, we assessed the costs associated with influenza B during 2010-2011 in France. METHODS: Cases of lab-confirmed influenza B were analyzed as part of the Influenza B in General Practice Study. Cost calculations were based on micro-costing methods according to the French Health Insurance (FHI) perspective (in Euros, 2011). Costs were compared between age groups using the Kruskal-Wallis test, and when significant, by multiple comparisons based on rank. Moreover, uncertainties were assessed using one-way sensitivity and probabilistic analyses. Overall economic burden was estimated by multiplying cost per patient, flu attack rate, and the French population. RESULTS: A total of 201 patients were included in the study. We found that the mean cost associated with Influenza B was 72€ (SD: 205) per patient: 70€ (SD: 262) for younger children, 50€ (SD: 195) for older children, 126€ (SD: 180) for adults, and 42€ (SD: 18) for elderly. Thus, we observed significantly different costs between the distinct age groups (p<0.0001). Finally, the economic burden of influenza B for the FHI was estimated to be 145 million Euros (95% CI: 88-201). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the important impact of influenza B and encourage further investigation on policy regarding vaccination strategies in France.
| S-EPMC3909302 | biostudies-other
Project description:In winter 2008, kindergartens and primary schools in Hong Kong were closed for 2 weeks after media coverage indicated that 3 children had died, apparently from influenza. We examined prospective influenza surveillance data before, during, and after the closure. We did not find a substantial effect on community transmission.
| S-EPMC2609897 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Influenza viruses exist in each host as a collection of genetically diverse variants, which might enhance their adaptive potential. To assess the genetic and functional diversity of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses within infected humans, we used deep-sequencing methods to characterize samples obtained from infected patients in northern Vietnam during 2004-2010 on different days after infection, from different anatomic sites, or both. We detected changes in virus genes that affected receptor binding, polymerase activity, or interferon antagonism, suggesting that these factors could play roles in influenza virus adaptation to humans. However, the frequency of most of these mutations remained low in the samples tested, implying that they were not efficiently selected within these hosts. Our data suggest that adaptation of influenza A(H5N1) viruses is probably stepwise and depends on accumulating combinations of mutations that alter function while maintaining fitness.
| S-EPMC6038741 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:The benefit of school-based influenza vaccination policy has not been fully addressed in Beijing. OBJECTIVES:To evaluate the benefit of school-based influenza vaccination policy launched in Beijing. METHODS:Using existing surveillance and immunization data, we developed a dynamic transmission model to assess the impact of influenza vaccination in school-going children. The outcome was defined as the averted number of medically attended influenza illnesses and the prevented disease fraction to all children aged 5-14 years for the 2013/14, 2014/15, and 2015/16 seasons. RESULTS:We estimated that during the three consecutive influenza seasons, the averted number of medically attended influenza illnesses among children aged 5-14 years was around 104 000 (95% CI: 101 000-106 000), 23 000 (95% CI: 22 000-23 000), and 21 000 (95% CI: 21 000-22 000), respectively. Corresponding prevented fractions to all children aged 5-14 years were 76.3%, 38.5%, and 43.9%. CONCLUSIONS:In Beijing, school-based vaccinations reduced a substantial number of medically attended influenza illnesses despite seasonal variation in the prevented fraction. This is strong supportive evidence for the continuation of school-based vaccination programs to reduce the influenza burden in this age group.
| S-EPMC6185895 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundSchool-located influenza vaccination (SLIV) programs can substantially enhance the sub-optimal coverage achieved under existing delivery strategies. Randomized SLIV trials have shown these programs reduce laboratory-confirmed influenza among both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. This work explores the effectiveness of a SLIV program in reducing the community risk of influenza and influenza-like illness (ILI) associated emergency care visits.MethodsFor the 2011/12 and 2012/13 influenza seasons, we estimated age-group specific attack rates (AR) for ILI from routine surveillance and census data. Age-group specific SLIV program effectiveness was estimated as one minus the AR ratio for Alachua County versus two comparison regions: the 12 county region surrounding Alachua County, and all non-Alachua counties in Florida.ResultsVaccination of ?50% of 5-17 year-olds in Alachua reduced their risk of ILI-associated visits, compared to the rest of Florida, by 79% (95% confidence interval: 70, 85) in 2011/12 and 71% (63, 77) in 2012/13. The greatest indirect effectiveness was observed among 0-4 year-olds, reducing AR by 89% (84, 93) in 2011/12 and 84% (79, 88) in 2012/13. Among all non-school age residents, the estimated indirect effectiveness was 60% (54, 65) and 36% (31, 41) for 2011/12 and 2012/13. The overall effectiveness among all age-groups was 65% (61, 70) and 46% (42, 50) for 2011/12 and 2012/13.ConclusionWider implementation of SLIV programs can significantly reduce the influenza-associated public health burden in communities.
| S-EPMC4260868 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Control of communicable diseases in children, including respiratory and diarrheal illnesses that affect U.S. school-aged children, might require public health preventive efforts both in the home and at school, a primary setting for transmission. National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data on school absenteeism and gastrointestinal and respiratory illnesses in the United States during 2010-2016 were analyzed to examine their associations with income. Prevalence of gastrointestinal and respiratory illnesses (queried for the 2 weeks preceding the survey) increased as income decreased. The likelihood of missing any school days during the past year decreased with reduced income. However, among children who missed school, those from low-income households missed more days of school than did children from higher income households. Although the reason for absenteeism cannot be ascertained from this analysis, these data underscore the importance of preventive measures (e.g. hand hygiene promotion and education) and the opportunity for both homes and schools to serve as important points for implementation of public health preventive measures, including improved hand hygiene practices.
| S-EPMC6973341 | biostudies-literature
Project description:User-generated content can assist epidemiological surveillance in the early detection and prevalence estimation of infectious diseases, such as influenza. Google Flu Trends embodies the first public platform for transforming search queries to indications about the current state of flu in various places all over the world. However, the original model significantly mispredicted influenza-like illness rates in the US during the 2012-13 flu season. In this work, we build on the previous modeling attempt, proposing substantial improvements. Firstly, we investigate the performance of a widely used linear regularized regression solver, known as the Elastic Net. Then, we expand on this model by incorporating the queries selected by the Elastic Net into a nonlinear regression framework, based on a composite Gaussian Process. Finally, we augment the query-only predictions with an autoregressive model, injecting prior knowledge about the disease. We assess predictive performance using five consecutive flu seasons spanning from 2008 to 2013 and qualitatively explain certain shortcomings of the previous approach. Our results indicate that a nonlinear query modeling approach delivers the lowest cumulative nowcasting error, and also suggest that query information significantly improves autoregressive inferences, obtaining state-of-the-art performance.
| S-EPMC4522652 | biostudies-literature
Project description:School children may transmit pathogens with cluster cases occurring on campuses and in families. In response to the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Taipei City Government officials developed a School-based Infectious Disease Syndromic Surveillance System (SID-SSS). Teachers and nurses from preschools to universities in all 12 districts within Taipei are required to daily report cases of symptomatic children or sick leave requests through the SID-SSS. The pre-diagnosis at schools is submitted firstly as common pediatric disease syndrome-groups and re-submitted after confirmation by physicians. We retrieved these data from January 2010 to August 2011 for spatio-temporal analysis and evaluated the temporal trends with cases obtained from both the Emergency Department-based Syndromic Surveillance System (ED-SSS) and the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005 (LHID2005). Through the SID-SSS, enterovirus-like illness (EVI) and influenza-like illness (ILI) were the two most reported syndrome groups (77.6% and 15.8% among a total of 19,334 cases, respectively). The pre-diagnosis judgments made by school teachers and nurses showed high consistency with physicians' clinical diagnoses for EVI (97.8%) and ILI (98.9%). Most importantly, the SID-SSS had better timeliness with earlier peaks of EVI and ILI than those in the ED-SSS. Furthermore, both of the syndrome groups in these two surveillance systems had the best correlation reaching 0.98 and 0.95, respectively (p<0.01). Spatio-temporal analysis observed the patterns of EVI and ILI both diffuse from the northern suburban districts to central Taipei, with ILI spreading faster. This novel system can identify early suspected cases of two important pediatric infections occurring at schools, and clusters from schools/families. It was also cost-effective (95.5% of the operation cost reduced and 59.7% processing time saved). The timely surveillance of mild EVI and ILI cases integrated with spatial analysis may help public health decision-makers with where to target for enhancing surveillance and prevention measures to minimize severe cases.
| S-EPMC4398411 | biostudies-literature