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Evaluating the quality of evidence from a network meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: Systematic reviews that collate data about the relative effects of multiple interventions via network meta-analysis are highly informative for decision-making purposes. A network meta-analysis provides two types of findings for a specific outcome: the relative treatment effect for all pairwise comparisons, and a ranking of the treatments. It is important to consider the confidence with which these two types of results can enable clinicians, policy makers and patients to make informed decisions. We propose an approach to determining confidence in the output of a network meta-analysis. Our proposed approach is based on methodology developed by the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) Working Group for pairwise meta-analyses. The suggested framework for evaluating a network meta-analysis acknowledges (i) the key role of indirect comparisons (ii) the contributions of each piece of direct evidence to the network meta-analysis estimates of effect size; (iii) the importance of the transitivity assumption to the validity of network meta-analysis; and (iv) the possibility of disagreement between direct evidence and indirect evidence. We apply our proposed strategy to a systematic review comparing topical antibiotics without steroids for chronically discharging ears with underlying eardrum perforations. The proposed framework can be used to determine confidence in the results from a network meta-analysis. Judgements about evidence from a network meta-analysis can be different from those made about evidence from pairwise meta-analyses.

SUBMITTER: Salanti G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4084629 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluating the quality of evidence from a network meta-analysis.

Salanti Georgia G Del Giovane Cinzia C Chaimani Anna A Caldwell Deborah M DM Higgins Julian P T JP

PloS one 20140703 7

Systematic reviews that collate data about the relative effects of multiple interventions via network meta-analysis are highly informative for decision-making purposes. A network meta-analysis provides two types of findings for a specific outcome: the relative treatment effect for all pairwise comparisons, and a ranking of the treatments. It is important to consider the confidence with which these two types of results can enable clinicians, policy makers and patients to make informed decisions. ...[more]

PMID: 24992266

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Project description:Preventing psychosis in patients at clinical high risk may be a promising avenue for pre-emptively ameliorating outcomes of the most severe psychiatric disorder. However, information on how each preventive intervention fares against other currently available treatment options remains unavailable. The aim of the current study was to quantify the consistency and magnitude of effects of specific preventive interventions for psychosis, comparing different treatments in a network meta-analysis. PsycINFO, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and unpublished/grey literature were searched up to July 18, 2017, to identify randomized controlled trials conducted in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis, comparing different types of intervention and reporting transition to psychosis. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Data were synthesized using network meta-analyses. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis at different time points and the secondary outcome was treatment acceptability (dropout due to any cause). Effect sizes were reported as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Sixteen studies (2,035 patients, 57% male, mean age 20.1 years) reported on risk of transition. The treatments tested were needs-based interventions (NBI); omega-3?+?NBI; ziprasidone?+?NBI; olanzapine?+?NBI; aripiprazole?+?NBI; integrated psychological interventions; family therapy?+?NBI; D-serine?+?NBI; cognitive behavioural therapy, French & Morrison protocol (CBT-F)?+?NBI; CBT-F?+?risperidone?+?NBI; and cognitive behavioural therapy, van der Gaag protocol (CBT-V)?+?CBT-F?+?NBI. The network meta-analysis showed no evidence of significantly superior efficacy of any one intervention over the others at 6 and 12 months (insufficient data were available after 12 months). Similarly, there was no evidence for intervention differences in acceptability at either time point. Tests for inconsistency were non-significant and sensitivity analyses controlling for different clustering of interventions and biases did not materially affect the interpretation of the results. In summary, this study indicates that, to date, there is no evidence that any specific intervention is particularly effective over the others in preventing transition to psychosis. Further experimental research is needed.

Project description:BackgroundConducting systematic reviews is time-consuming but crucial to construct evidence-based patient decision aids, clinical practice guidelines and decision analyses. New methods might enable developers to produce a knowledge base more rapidly. However, trading off scientific rigour for speed when creating a knowledge base is controversial, and the consequences are insufficiently known. We developed and applied faster methods including systematic reviews and network meta-analyses, assessed their feasibility and compared them to a gold standard approach. We also assessed the feasibility of using decision analysis to perform this comparison.MethodsLong-term treatment in bipolar disorder was our testing field. We developed two new methods: an empirically based, rapid network meta-analysis (NMA) and an expert NMA, and conducted a patient survey. We applied these methods to collect effect estimates for evidence-based treatments on outcomes important to patients. The relative importance of outcomes was obtained from patients using a stated preference method. We used multi-criteria decision analysis to compare a gold standard NMA with the rapid NMA in terms of the ability of the gold standard NMA to change the ranking and expected values of treatments for individual patients.ResultsUsing rapid methods, it was feasible to identify evidence addressing outcomes important to patients. We found that replacing effect estimates from our rapid NMA with estimates from the gold standard NMA resulted in relatively small changes in the ranking and expected value of treatments. The rapid method sufficed to estimate the effects of nine out of ten options. To produce a ranking of treatments accurate for more than 95% of patients, it was necessary to supplement systematic with rapid methods and to use relative importance weights in the analysis. Integrating estimates of the outcome "treatment burden" had a larger impact on rankings than replacing rapid with gold standard methods. Using patients' importance weights only modestly affected results.ConclusionsThe transfer of knowledge to practice could benefit from faster systematic reviewing methods. The results in this preliminary assessment suggest that an improved rapid NMA approach might replace gold standard NMAs. Decision analysis could be used to compare evidence summarisation methods.

Dataset Information

Evaluating the quality of evidence from a network meta-analysis.

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Evaluating the quality of evidence from a network meta-analysis.

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