Dataset Information

Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century.

ABSTRACT: Heat is recognized as one of the deadliest weather-related phenomena. Although the impact of high temperatures on mortality has been a subject of extensive research, few previous studies have assessed the impact of population adaptation to heat.We examined adaptation patterns by analyzing daily temperature and mortality data spanning more than a century in New York City. Using a distributed-lag nonlinear model, we analyzed the heat-mortality relation in adults age 15 years or older in New York City during 2 periods: 1900-1948 and 1973-2006, to quantify population adaptation to high temperatures over time.During the first half of the century, the decade-specific relative risk of mortality at 29°C vs. 22°C ranged from 1.30 (95% confidence interval [CI]= 1.25-1.36) in the 1910s to 1.43 (1.37-1.49) in the 1900s. Since the 1970s, however, there was a gradual and substantial decline in the relative risk, from 1.26 (1.22-1.29) in the 1970s to 1.09 (1.05-1.12) in the 2000s. Age-specific analyses indicated a greater risk for people age 65 years and older in the first part of the century, but there was less evidence for enhanced risk among this older age group in more recent decades.The excess mortality with high temperatures observed between 1900 and 1948 was substantially reduced between 1973 and 2006, indicating population adaption to heat in recent decades. These findings may have implications for projecting future impacts of climate change on mortality.

SUBMITTER: Petkova EP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4096340 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century.

Petkova Elisaveta P EP Gasparrini Antonio A Kinney Patrick L PL

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20140701 4

<h4>Background</h4>Heat is recognized as one of the deadliest weather-related phenomena. Although the impact of high temperatures on mortality has been a subject of extensive research, few previous studies have assessed the impact of population adaptation to heat.<h4>Methods</h4>We examined adaptation patterns by analyzing daily temperature and mortality data spanning more than a century in New York City. Using a distributed-lag nonlinear model, we analyzed the heat-mortality relation in adults ...[more]

PMID: 24802366

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Project description:There has been little research into the thermal condition of the sleeping environment. Even less well documented and understood is how the sleeping thermal environment is affected by occupant behaviors such as the use of air-conditioning (AC) and electric fans, or window operations. In this paper we present results from a questionnaire survey administered to assess summertime bedroom thermal satisfaction and heat-coping strategies among New York City (NYC) residents. Specifically, we investigated current AC usage in bedrooms and examined alternate cooling strategies, cooling appliance usage patterns, and the motivations that drove these patterns during the 2015 summer. Among survey respondents (n=706), AC was the preferred heat-coping strategy, and for 30% of respondents was the only strategy used. Electric fan use and window opening were deemed ineffective for cooling by many respondents. Indeed, less than a quarter of all respondents ever opened windows to alleviate heat in their bedrooms. In general, people utilized strategies that modify the environment more than the individual person. Unsurprisingly, the frequency and overall use of AC were significantly associated with greater bedroom thermal satisfaction; however, setting AC to a lower temperature provided no additional benefit. In contrast, more frequent use of electric fans was associated with lower thermal satisfaction. In addition, 14.7% of all respondents did not have AC in their sleeping environment and 5.8% were without any AC at home. Despite the high penetration of AC ownership, usage cost was still a major concern for most. This work contributes to a better understanding of bedtime heat-coping strategies, cooling appliance usage patterns, and associated thermal satisfaction in NYC. The findings of this study suggest resident AC usage patterns may not be optimized for thermal satisfaction. Potential alternative cooling approaches could be explored to better balance maximizing thermal comfort while reducing energy consumption and environmental impact.

Project description:BACKGROUND:High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. OBJECTIVES:The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. METHODS:We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RESULTS:The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. CONCLUSIONS:These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Dataset Information

Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century.

Publications

Heat and mortality in New York City since the beginning of the 20th century.

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