Dataset Information

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. OBJECTIVES:The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. METHODS:We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RESULTS:The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. CONCLUSIONS:These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55;?http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

SUBMITTER: Petkova EP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5226693 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

Petkova Elisaveta P EP Vink Jan K JK Horton Radley M RM Gasparrini Antonio A Bader Daniel A DA Francis Joe D JD Kinney Patrick L PL

Environmental health perspectives 20160623 1

<h4>Background</h4>High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics.<h4>Objectives</h4>The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in Ne ...[more]

PMID: 27337737

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Project description:BackgroundThe impact of climate change on mental health largely remains to be evaluated. Although growing evidence has reported a short-term association between suicide and temperature, future projections of temperature-attributable suicide have not been thoroughly examined.ObjectivesWe aimed to project the excess temperature-related suicide mortality in Japan under three climate change scenarios until the 2090s.MethodsDaily time series of mean temperature and the number of suicide deaths in 1973-2015 were collected for 47 prefectures in Japan. A two-stage time-stratified case-crossover analysis was used to estimate the temperature-suicide association. We obtained the modeled daily temperature series using five general circulation models under three climate change scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSPs): SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. We projected the excess temperature-related suicide mortality until 2099 for each scenario and evaluated the net relative changes compared with the 2010s.ResultsDuring 1973-2015, there was a total of 1,049,592 suicides in Japan. Net increases in temperature-related excess suicide mortality were estimated under all scenarios. The net change in 2090-2099 compared with 2010-2019 was 1.3% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 0.6, 2.4] for the intermediate-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5), 0.6% (95% eCI: 0.1, 1.6) for a low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), and 2.4% (95% eCI: 0.7, 3.9) for the extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5). The increases were greater the more extreme the scenarios were, with the highest increase under the most extreme scenario (SSP5-8.5).DiscussionThis study indicates that Japan may experience a net increase in excess temperature-related suicide mortality, especially under the intermediate and extreme scenarios. The findings underscore the importance of mitigation policies. Further investigations of the future impacts of climate change on mental health including suicide are warranted. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11246.

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Project description:There has been little research into the thermal condition of the sleeping environment. Even less well documented and understood is how the sleeping thermal environment is affected by occupant behaviors such as the use of air-conditioning (AC) and electric fans, or window operations. In this paper we present results from a questionnaire survey administered to assess summertime bedroom thermal satisfaction and heat-coping strategies among New York City (NYC) residents. Specifically, we investigated current AC usage in bedrooms and examined alternate cooling strategies, cooling appliance usage patterns, and the motivations that drove these patterns during the 2015 summer. Among survey respondents (n=706), AC was the preferred heat-coping strategy, and for 30% of respondents was the only strategy used. Electric fan use and window opening were deemed ineffective for cooling by many respondents. Indeed, less than a quarter of all respondents ever opened windows to alleviate heat in their bedrooms. In general, people utilized strategies that modify the environment more than the individual person. Unsurprisingly, the frequency and overall use of AC were significantly associated with greater bedroom thermal satisfaction; however, setting AC to a lower temperature provided no additional benefit. In contrast, more frequent use of electric fans was associated with lower thermal satisfaction. In addition, 14.7% of all respondents did not have AC in their sleeping environment and 5.8% were without any AC at home. Despite the high penetration of AC ownership, usage cost was still a major concern for most. This work contributes to a better understanding of bedtime heat-coping strategies, cooling appliance usage patterns, and associated thermal satisfaction in NYC. The findings of this study suggest resident AC usage patterns may not be optimized for thermal satisfaction. Potential alternative cooling approaches could be explored to better balance maximizing thermal comfort while reducing energy consumption and environmental impact.

Project description:BackgroundIn China, most previous projections of heat-related mortality have been based on modeling studies using global climate models (GCMs), which can help to elucidate the risks of extreme heat events in a changing climate. However, spatiotemporal changes in the health effects of climate change considering specific regional characteristics remain poorly understood. We aimed to use credible climate and population projections to estimate future heatwave-attributable deaths under different emission scenarios and to explore the drivers underlying these patterns of changes.MethodsWe derived climate data from a regional climate model driven by three CMIP5 GCM models and calculated future heatwaves in China under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. The future gridded population data were based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2 assumption with different fertility rates. By applying climate zone-specific exposure-response functions to mortality during heatwave events, we projected the scale of heatwave-attributable deaths under each RCP scenario. We further analyzed the factors driving changes in heatwave-related deaths and main sources of uncertainty using a decomposition method. We compared differences in death burden under the 1.5°C target, which is closely related to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century.FindingsThe number of heatwave-related deaths will increase continuously to the mid-century even under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and will continue increasing throughout the century under RCP8.5. There will be 20,303 deaths caused by heatwaves in 2090 under RCP2.6, 35,025 under RCP4.5, and 72,260 under RCP8.5, with half of all heatwave-related deaths in any scenario concentrated in east and central China. Climate effects are the main driver for the increase in attributable deaths in the near future till 2060, explaining 78% of the total change. Subsequent population decline cannot offset the losses caused by higher incidence of heatwaves and an aging population under RCP8.5. Although health loss under the 1.5°C warming scenario is 1.6-fold higher than the baseline period 1986-2005, limiting the temperature rise to 1.5°C can reduce the annual mortality burden in China by 3,534 deaths in 2090 compared with RCP2.6 scenarios.InterpretationWith accelerating climate change and population aging, the effects of future heatwaves on human health in China are likely to increase continuously even under a low emission scenario. Significant health benefits are expected if the optimistic 1.5°C goal is achieved, suggesting that carbon neutrality by mid-century is a critical target for China's sustainable development. Policymakers need to tighten climate mitigation policies tailored to local conditions while enhancing climate resilience technically and infrastructurally, especially for vulnerable elderly people.FundingNational Key R&D Program of China (2018YFA0606200), Wellcome Trust (209734/Z/17/Z), Natural Science Foundation of China (41790471), and Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research (2020B0301030004).

Dataset Information

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

Publications

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

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