Dataset Information

Population red blood cell folate concentrations for prevention of neural tube defects: Bayesian model.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To determine an optimal population red blood cell (RBC) folate concentration for the prevention of neural tube birth defects.

Design

Bayesian model.

Setting

Data from two population based studies in China.

Participants

247,831 participants in a prospective community intervention project in China (1993-95) to prevent neural tube defects with 400 μg/day folic acid supplementation and 1194 participants in a population based randomized trial (2003-05) to evaluate the effect of folic acid supplementation on blood folate concentration among Chinese women of reproductive age.

Intervention

Folic acid supplementation (400 μg/day).

Main outcome measures

Estimated RBC folate concentration at time of neural tube closure (day 28 of gestation) and risk of neural tube defects.

Results

Risk of neural tube defects was high at the lowest estimated RBC folate concentrations (for example, 25.4 (95% uncertainty interval 20.8 to 31.2) neural tube defects per 10,000 births at 500 nmol/L) and decreased as estimated RBC folate concentration increased. Risk of neural tube defects was substantially attenuated at estimated RBC folate concentrations above about 1000 nmol/L (for example, 6 neural tube defects per 10,000 births at 1180 (1050 to 1340) nmol/L). The modeled dose-response relation was consistent with the existing literature. In addition, neural tube defect risk estimates developed using the proposed model and population level RBC information were consistent with the prevalence of neural tube defects in the US population before and after food fortification with folic acid.

Conclusions

A threshold for "optimal" population RBC folate concentration for the prevention of neural tube defects could be defined (for example, approximately 1000 nmol/L). Population based RBC folate concentrations, as a biomarker for risk of neural tube defects, can be used to facilitate evaluation of prevention programs as well as to identify subpopulations at elevated risk for a neural tube defect affected pregnancy due to folate insufficiency.

SUBMITTER: Crider KS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4115151 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundFor women of reproductive age, a population-level red blood cell (RBC) folate concentration below the threshold 906 nmol/L or 400 ng/mL indicates folate insufficiency and suboptimal neural tube defect (NTD) prevention. A corresponding population plasma/serum folate concentration threshold for optimal NTD prevention has not been established.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to examine the association between plasma and RBC folate concentrations and estimated a population plasma folate insufficiency threshold (pf-IT) corresponding to the RBC folate insufficiency threshold (RBCf-IT) of 906 nmol/L.MethodsWe analyzed data on women of reproductive age (n = 1673) who participated in a population-based, randomized folic acid supplementation trial in northern China. Of these women, 565 women with anemia and/or vitamin B-12 deficiency were ineligible for folic acid intervention (nonintervention group); the other 1108 received folic acid supplementation for 6 mo (intervention group). We developed a Bayesian linear model to estimate the pf-IT corresponding to RBCf-IT by time from supplementation initiation, folic acid dosage, methyltetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) genotype, body mass index (BMI), vitamin B-12 status, or anemia status.ResultsUsing plasma and RBC folate concentrations of the intervention group, the estimated median pf-IT was 25.5 nmol/L (95% credible interval: 24.6, 26.4). The median pf-ITs were similar between the baseline and postsupplementation samples (25.7 compared with 25.2 nmol/L) but differed moderately (±3-4 nmol/L) by MTHFR genotype and BMI. Using the full population-based baseline sample (intervention and nonintervention), the median pf-IT was higher for women with vitamin B-12 deficiency (34.6 nmol/L) and marginal deficiency (29.8 nmol/L) compared with the sufficient group (25.6 nmol/L).ConclusionsThe relation between RBC and plasma folate concentrations was modified by BMI and genotype and substantially by low plasma vitamin B-12. This suggests that the threshold of 25.5 nmol/L for optimal NTD prevention may be appropriate in populations with similar characteristics, but it should not be used in vitamin B-12 insufficient populations. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00207558.

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