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Risk stratification for long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention.

ABSTRACT: A simple risk score to predict long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using preprocedural risk factors is currently not available. In this study, we created one by simplifying the results of a Cox proportional hazards model.A total of 11,897 patients who underwent PCI from October through December 2003 in New York State were randomly divided into derivation and validation samples. Patients' vital statuses were tracked using the National Death Index through the end of 2008. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after PCI using the derivation sample, and a simplified risk score was created. The Cox model identified 12 separate risk factors for mortality including older age, extreme body mass indexes, multivessel disease, a lower ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, several comorbidities (cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, and renal failure), and a history of coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The C statistics of this model when applied to the validation sample were 0.787, 0.785, and 0.773 for risks of death within 1, 3, and 5 years after PCI, respectively. In addition, the point-based risk score demonstrated good agreement between patients' observed and predicted risks of death.A simple risk score created from a more complicated Cox proportional hazards model can be used to accurately predict a patient's risk of long-term mortality after PCI.

SUBMITTER: Wu C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4121885 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk stratification for long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention.

Wu Chuntao C Camacho Fabian T FT King Spencer B SB Walford Gary G Holmes David R DR Stamato Nicholas J NJ Berger Peter B PB Sharma Samin S Curtis Jeptha P JP Venditti Ferdinand J FJ Jacobs Alice K AK Hannan Edward L EL

Circulation. Cardiovascular interventions 20140114 1

<h4>Background</h4>A simple risk score to predict long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) using preprocedural risk factors is currently not available. In this study, we created one by simplifying the results of a Cox proportional hazards model.<h4>Methods and results</h4>A total of 11,897 patients who underwent PCI from October through December 2003 in New York State were randomly divided into derivation and validation samples. Patients' vital statuses were tracked usi ...[more]

PMID: 24425588

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough many studies show an inverse association between operator procedural volume and short-term adverse outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), the association between procedural volume and longer-term outcomes is unknown.MethodsUsing the National Cardiovascular Data Registry CathPCI registry data linked with Medicare claims data, we examined the association between operator PCI volume and long-term outcomes among patients ≥65 years of age. Operators were stratified by average annual PCI volume (counting PCIs performed in patients of all ages): low- (<50 PCIs), intermediate- (50-100), and high- (>100) volume operators. One-year unadjusted rates of death and major adverse coronary events (MACEs; defined as death, readmission for myocardial infarction, or unplanned coronary revascularization) were calculated with Kaplan-Meier methods. The proportional hazards assumption was not met, and risk-adjusted associations between operator volume and outcomes were calculated separately from the time of PCI to hospital discharge and from hospital discharge to 1-year follow-up.ResultsBetween July 1, 2009, and December 31, 2014, 723 644 PCI procedures were performed by 8936 operators: 2553 high-, 2878 intermediate-, and 3505 low-volume operators. Compared with high- and intermediate-volume operators, low-volume operators more often performed emergency PCI, and their patients had fewer cardiovascular comorbidities. Over 1-year follow-up, 15.9% of patients treated by low-volume operators had a MACE compared with 16.9% of patients treated by high-volume operators ( P=0.004). After multivariable adjustment, intermediate- and high-volume operators had a significantly lower rate of in-hospital death than low-volume operators (odds ratio, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.86-0.96 for intermediate versus low; odds ratio, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.75-0.83 for high versus low). There were no significant differences in rates of MACEs, death, myocardial infarction, or unplanned revascularization between operator cohorts from hospital discharge to 1-year follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio for MACEs, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.96-1.01 for intermediate versus low; hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.99-1.04 for high versus low).ConclusionsUnadjusted 1-year outcomes after PCI were worse for older adults treated by operators with higher annual volume; however, patients treated by these operators had more cardiovascular comorbidities. After risk adjustment, higher operator volume was associated with lower in-hospital mortality and no difference in postdischarge MACEs.

Project description:BackgroundThe development of the technique has improved the success rate of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for in-stent chronic total occlusion (IS-CTO). However, long-term outcomes remain unclear. The present study sought to investigate long-term outcomes of PCI for IS-CTO.MethodsA total of 474 IS-CTO patients were enrolled at two cardiac centers from 2015 to 2018 retrospectively. These patients were allocated into either successful or failed IS-CTO PCI groups. The primary endpoint (major adverse cardiac events [MACE]) consisted of recurrent angina pectoris (RAP), target-vessel myocardial infarction (MI), heart failure, cardiac death, or ischemia-driven target-vessel revascularization (TVR) at follow-up. Multivariable Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the association between treatment appropriateness and clinical outcomes.ResultsA total of 367 patients were successfully treated with IS-CTO PCI while 107 patients had failed recanalization. After a median follow-up of 30 months (interquartile range: 17-42 months), no significant difference was observed between the two groups for the following parameters: cardiac death (successful PCI vs. failed PCI: 0.9% vs. 2.7%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 1.442; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21-9.887; P = 0.709), RAP (successful PCI vs. failed PCI: 40.8% vs. 40.0%; adjusted HR: 1.025; 95% CI: 0.683-1.538; P = 0.905), heart failure (successful PCI vs. failed PCI: 6.1% vs. 2.7%; adjusted HR: 0.281; 95% CI: 0.065-1.206; P = 0.088), target-vessel related MI (successful PCI vs. failed PCI: 1.5% vs. 2.7%; adjusted HR: 1.150; 95% CI: 0.221-5.995; P = 0.868), MACE (successful PCI vs. failed PCI: 44.2% vs. 45.3%; adjusted HR: 1.052; 95% CI: 0.717-1.543; P = 0.797). More patients were free of angina in the successful IS-CTO PCI group compared with failed PCI in the first (80.4% vs. 60%, P < 0.01) and second years (73.3% vs. 60.0%, P = 0.02) following up. Successful IS-CTO PCI had a lower incidence of MACE in the first and second years (20.2% vs. 40.0%, P < 0.01; 27.9% vs. 41.3%, P = 0.023) compared with failed PCI. After a median follow-up of 30 months, the reocclusion rate was 28.5% and TVR was 26.1% in the successful IS-CTO PCI group. Receiving >18 months of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) was an independent predictor of decreased risk of TVR (HR: 2.682; 95% CI: 1.295-5.578; P = 0.008) or MACE (without TVR) (HR: 1.898; 95% CI: 1.036-3.479; P = 0.038) in successful IS-CTO PCI.ConclusionsAfter a median follow-up of 30 months, the successful IS-CTO PCI group had MACE similar to that of the failed PCI group. However, the successful IS-CTO PCI group had improved angina symptoms and were free from requiring coronary artery bypass grafting in the first or second years. To decrease MACE, DAPT was found to be essential and recommended for at least 18 months for IS-CTO PCI.

Project description:Objective:We aim to evaluate the long-term prognosis of non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS) patients with high-risk coronary anatomy (HRCA). Background:Coronary disease severity is important for therapeutic decision-making and prognostication among patients presenting with NSTE-ACS. However, long-term outcome in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with HRCA is still unknown. Method:NSTE-ACS patients undergoing PCI in Fuwai Hospital in 2013 were prospectively enrolled and subsequently divided into HRCA and low-risk coronary anatomy (LRCA) groups according to whether angiography complies with the HRCA definition. HRCA was defined as left main disease >50%, proximal LAD lesion >70%, or 2- to 3- vessel disease involving the LAD. Prognosis impact on 2-year and 5-year major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) is analyzed. Results:Out of 4,984 enrolled patients with NSTE-ACS, 3,752 patients belonged to the HRCA group, while 1,232 patients belonged to the LRCA group. Compared with the LRCA group, patients in the HRCA group had worse baseline characteristics including higher age, more comorbidities, and worse angiographic findings. Patients in the HRCA group had higher incidence of unplanned revascularization (2 years: 9.7% vs. 5.1%, p < 0.001; 5 years: 15.4% vs. 10.3%, p < 0.001), 2-year MACCE (13.1% vs. 8.8%, p < 0.001), and 5-year death/MI/revascularization/stroke (23.0% vs. 18.4%, p = 0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed similar results. After adjusting for confounding factors, HRCA is independently associated with higher risk of revascularization (2 years: HR?=?1.636, 95% CI: 1.225-2.186; 5 years: HR?=?1.460, 95% CI: 1.186-1.798), 2-year MACCE (HR?=?1.275, 95% CI?=?1.019-1.596) and 5-year death/MI/revascularization/stroke (HR?=?1.183, 95% CI: 1.010-1.385). Conclusion:In our large cohort of Chinese patients, HRCA is an independent risk factor for long-term unplanned revascularization and MACCE.

Dataset Information

Risk stratification for long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention.

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Risk stratification for long-term mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention.

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