Dataset Information

Nowcasting the spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In December 2013, the first locally-acquired chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections in the Americas were reported in the Caribbean. As of May 16, 55,992 cases had been reported and the outbreak was still spreading. Identification of newly affected locations is paramount to intervention activities, but challenging due to limitations of current data on the outbreak and on CHIKV transmission. We developed models to make probabilistic predictions of spread based on current data considering these limitations.

Methods and findings

Branching process models capturing travel patterns, local infection prevalence, climate dependent transmission factors, and associated uncertainty estimates were developed to predict probable locations for the arrival of CHIKV-infected travelers and for the initiation of local transmission. Many international cities and areas close to where transmission has already occurred were likely to have received infected travelers. Of the ten locations predicted to be the most likely locations for introduced CHIKV transmission in the first four months of the outbreak, eight had reported local cases by the end of April. Eight additional locations were likely to have had introduction leading to local transmission in April, but with substantial uncertainty.

Conclusions

Branching process models can characterize the risk of CHIKV introduction and spread during the ongoing outbreak. Local transmission of CHIKV is currently likely in several Caribbean locations and possible, though uncertain, for other locations in the continental United States, Central America, and South America. This modeling framework may also be useful for other outbreaks where the risk of pathogen spread over heterogeneous transportation networks must be rapidly assessed on the basis of limited information.

SUBMITTER: Johansson MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4128737 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Nowcasting the spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas.

Johansson Michael A MA Powers Ann M AM Pesik Nicki N Cohen Nicole J NJ Staples J Erin JE

PloS one 20140811 8

<h4>Background</h4>In December 2013, the first locally-acquired chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections in the Americas were reported in the Caribbean. As of May 16, 55,992 cases had been reported and the outbreak was still spreading. Identification of newly affected locations is paramount to intervention activities, but challenging due to limitations of current data on the outbreak and on CHIKV transmission. We developed models to make probabilistic predictions of spread based on current data cons ...[more]

PMID: 25111394

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Project description:BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV) typically causes explosive epidemics of fever, rash and polyarthralgia after its introduction into naïve populations. Since its introduction in Panama in May of 2014, few autochthonous cases have been reported; most of them were found within limited outbreaks in Panama City in 2014 and Puerto Obaldia town, near the Caribbean border with Colombia in 2015. In order to confirm that Panama had few CHIKV cases compared with neighboring countries, we perform an epidemiological analysis of chikungunya cases reported from May 2014 to July 2015. Moreover, to understand this paucity of confirmed CHIKV cases, a vectorial analysis in the counties where these cases were reported was performed.MethodsChikungunya cases were identified at medical centers and notified to health authorities. Sera samples were analyzed at Gorgas Memorial Institute for viral RNA and CHIKV-specific antibody detection.ResultsA total of 413 suspected cases of CHIKV infections were reported, with incidence rates of 0.5 and 0.7 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2014 and 2015, respectively. During this period, 38.6% of CHIKV cases were autochthonous with rash and polyarthralgia as predominant symptoms. CHIKV and DENV incidence ratios were 1:306 and 1:34, respectively. A phylogenetic analysis of E1/E2 genomic segment indicates that the outbreak strains belong to the Asian genotype and cluster together with CHIKV isolates from other American countries during the same period. Statistical analysis of the National Vector Control program at the district level shows low and medium vector infestation level for most of the counties with CHIKV cases. This index was lower than for neighboring countries.ConclusionsPrevious training of clinical, laboratory and vector workers allowed a good caption and detection of the chikungunya cases and fast intervention. It is possible that low/medium vector infestation level could explain in part the paucity of chikungunya infections in Panama.

Project description:BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV), mainly transmitted in urban areas by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, constitutes a major public health problem. In late 2013, CHIKV emerged on Saint-Martin Island in the Caribbean and spread throughout the region reaching more than 40 countries. Thus far, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have been implicated as the sole vector in the outbreaks, leading to the hypothesis that CHIKV spread could be limited only to regions where this mosquito species is dominant.Methodology/principal findingsWe determined the ability of local populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus from the Americas and Europe to transmit the CHIKV strain of the Asian genotype isolated from Saint-Martin Island (CHIKV_SM) during the recent epidemic, and an East-Central-South African (ECSA) genotype CHIKV strain isolated from La Réunion Island (CHIKV_LR) as a well-characterized control virus. We also evaluated the effect of temperature on transmission of CHIKV_SM by European Ae. albopictus. We found that (i) Aedes aegypti from Saint-Martin Island transmit CHIKV_SM and CHIKV_LR with similar efficiency, (ii) Ae. aegypti from the Americas display similar transmission efficiency for CHIKV_SM, (iii) American and European populations of the alternative vector species Ae. albopictus were as competent as Ae. aegypti populations with respect to transmission of CHIKV_SM and (iv) exposure of European Ae. albopictus to low temperatures (20°C) significantly reduced the transmission potential for CHIKV_SM.Conclusions/significanceCHIKV strains belonging to the ECSA genotype could also have initiated local transmission in the new world. Additionally, the ongoing CHIKV outbreak in the Americas could potentially spread throughout Ae. aegypti- and Ae. albopictus-infested regions of the Americas with possible imported cases of CHIKV to Ae. albopictus-infested regions in Europe. Colder temperatures may decrease the local transmission of CHIKV_SM by European Ae. albopictus, potentially explaining the lack of autochthonous transmission of CHIKV_SM in Europe despite the hundreds of imported CHIKV cases returning from the Caribbean.

Dataset Information

Nowcasting the spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Nowcasting the spread of chikungunya virus in the Americas.

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