Dataset Information

Suicide in Sri Lanka 1975-2012: age, period and cohort analysis of police and hospital data.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Sri Lanka has experienced major changes in its suicide rates since the 1970s, and in 1995 it had one of the highest rates in the world. Subsequent reductions in Sri Lanka's suicide rates have been attributed to the introduction of restrictions on the availability of highly toxic pesticides. We investigate these changes in suicide rates in relation to age, gender, method specific trends and birth-cohort and period effects, with the aim of informing preventative strategies.

Methods

Secular trends of suicide in relation to age, sex, method, birth-cohort and period effects were investigated graphically using police data (1975-2012). Poisoning case-fatality was investigated using national hospital admission data (2004-2010).

Results

There were marked changes to the age-, gender- and method-specific incidence of suicide over the study period. Year on year declines in rates began in 17-25 year olds in the early 1980s. Reduction in older age groups followed and falls in all age groups occurred after all class I (the most toxic) pesticides were banned. Distinct changes in the age/gender pattern of suicide are observed: in the 1980s suicide rates were highest in 21-35 year old men; by the 2000s, this pattern had reversed with a stepwise increase in male rates with increasing age. Throughout the study period female rates were highest in 17-25 year olds. There has been a rise in suicide by hanging, though this rise is relatively small in relation to the marked decline in self-poisoning deaths. The patterns of suicides are more consistent with a period rather than birth-cohort effect.

Conclusions

The epidemiology of suicide in Sri Lanka has changed noticeably in the last 30 years. The introduction of pesticide regulations in Sri Lanka coincides with a reduction in suicide rates, with evidence of limited method substitution.

SUBMITTER: Knipe DW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4148962 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundEvidence from high income countries (HICs) suggests that individuals who present to hospital after self-harm are an important target for suicide prevention, but evidence from low and middle-income countries (LMICs) is lacking. We aimed to investigate the risk of repeat self-harm and suicide, and factors associated with these outcomes, in a large cohort of patients presenting to hospital with self-harm in rural Sri Lanka.MethodsIn this cohort study, hospital presentations for self-harm at 13 hospitals in a rural area of North Central Province (population 224 000), Sri Lanka, were followed up with a self-harm surveillance system, established as part of a community randomised trial, and based on data from all hospitals, coroners, and police stations in the study area. We estimated the risk of repeat non-fatal and fatal self-harm and risk factors for repetition with Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazard models. Sociodemographic (age, sex, and socioeconomic position) and clinical (past self-harm and method of self-harm) characteristics investigated were drawn from a household survey in the study area and data recorded at the time of index hospital presentation. We included all individuals who had complete data for all variables in the study in our primary analysis.OutcomesBetween July 29, 2011, and May 12, 2016, we detected 3073 episodes of self-harm (fatal and non-fatal) in our surveillance system, of which 2532 (82·3%) were linked back to an individual in the baseline survey. After exclusion of 145 ineligible episodes, we analysed 2259 index episodes of self-harm. By use of survival models, the estimated risk of repeat self-harm (12 months: 3· 1%, 95% CI 2·4-3·9; 24 months: 5·2%, 4·3-6·4) and suicide (12 months: 0·6%, 0·4-1·1; 24 months: 0·8%, 0·5-1·3) in our study was considerably lower than that in HICs. A higher risk of repeat self-harm was observed in men than in women (fatal and non-fatal; hazard ratio 2·0, 95% CI 1·3-3·2; p=0·0021), in individuals aged 56 years and older compared with those aged 10-25 years (fatal; 16·1, 4·3-59·9; p=0·0027), and those who used methods other than poisoning in their index presentation (fatal and non-fatal; 3·9, 2·0-7·6; p=0·00027). We found no evidence of increased risk of repeat self-harm or suicide in those with a history of self-harm before the index episode.InterpretationAlthough people who self-harm are an important high-risk group, focusing suicide prevention efforts on those who self-harm might be somewhat less important in LMICs compared with HICs given the low risk of repeat self-harm and subsequent suicide death. Strategies that focus on other risk factors for suicide might be more effective in reducing suicide deaths in LMICs in south Asia. A better understanding of the low incidence of repeat self-harm is also needed, as this could contribute to prevention strategies in nations with a higher incidence of repetition and subsequent suicide death.FundingWellcome Trust.