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Three-way interactions between mosquito population, viral strain and temperature underlying chikungunya virus transmission potential.

ABSTRACT: Interactions between pathogens and their insect vectors in nature are under the control of both genetic and non-genetic factors, yet most studies on mosquito vector competence for human pathogens are conducted in laboratory systems that do not consider genetic and/or environmental variability. Evaluating the risk of emergence of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) of public health importance such as chikungunya virus (CHIKV) requires a more realistic appraisal of genetic and environmental contributions to vector competence. In particular, sources of variation do not necessarily act independently and may combine in the form of interactions. Here, we measured CHIKV transmission potential by the mosquito Aedes albopictus in all combinations of six worldwide vector populations, two virus strains and two ambient temperatures (20°C and 28°C). Overall, CHIKV transmission potential by Ae. albopictus strongly depended on the three-way combination of mosquito population, virus strain and temperature. Such genotype-by-genotype-by-environment (G × G × E) interactions question the relevance of vector competence studies conducted with a simpler set of conditions. Our results highlight the need to account for the complex interplay between vectors, pathogens and environmental factors to accurately assess the potential of vector-borne diseases to emerge.

SUBMITTER: Zouache K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4150320 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Three-way interactions between mosquito population, viral strain and temperature underlying chikungunya virus transmission potential.

Zouache Karima K Fontaine Albin A Vega-Rua Anubis A Mousson Laurence L Thiberge Jean-Michel JM Lourenco-De-Oliveira Ricardo R Caro Valérie V Lambrechts Louis L Failloux Anna-Bella AB

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20141001 1792

Interactions between pathogens and their insect vectors in nature are under the control of both genetic and non-genetic factors, yet most studies on mosquito vector competence for human pathogens are conducted in laboratory systems that do not consider genetic and/or environmental variability. Evaluating the risk of emergence of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) of public health importance such as chikungunya virus (CHIKV) requires a more realistic appraisal of genetic and environmental cont ...[more]

PMID: 25122228

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Project description:BackgroundClimate variability influences the population dynamics of the Aedes aegypti mosquito that transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya and Zika. In recent years these diseases have grown considerably. Dengue is now the fastest-growing mosquito-transmitted disease worldwide, putting 40 per cent of the global population at risk. With no effective antiviral treatments or vaccines widely available, controlling mosquito population remains one of the most effective ways to prevent epidemics. This paper analyses the temporal and spatial dynamics of dengue in Mexico during 2000-2020 and that of chikungunya and Zika since they first appeared in the country in 2014 and 2015, respectively. This study aims to evaluate how seasonal climatological variability affects the potential risk of transmission of these mosquito-borne diseases. Mexico is among the world's most endemic countries in terms of dengue. Given its high incidence of other mosquito-borne diseases and its size and wide range of climates, it is a good case study.MethodsWe estimate the recently proposed mosquito-borne viral suitability index P, which measures the transmission potential of mosquito-borne pathogens. This index mathematically models how humidity, temperature and precipitation affect the number of new infections generated by a single infected adult female mosquito in a host population. We estimate this suitability index across all Mexico, at small-area level, on a daily basis during 2000-2020.ResultsWe find that the index P predicted risk transmission is strongly correlated with the areas and seasons with a high incidence of dengue within the country. This correlation is also high enough for chikungunya and Zika in Mexico. We also show the index P is sensitive to seasonal climatological variability, including extreme weather shocks.ConclusionsThe paper shows the dynamics of dengue, chikungunya and Zika in Mexico are strongly associated with seasonal climatological variability and the index P. This potential risk of transmission index, therefore, is a valuable tool for surveillance for mosquito-borne diseases, particularly in settings with varied climates and limited entomological capacity.

Project description:Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal variation in temperature, the model provides a baseline for mechanistically understanding environmental suitability for virus transmission by Aedes aegypti. Overlaying the impact of human activities and socioeconomic factors onto this mechanistic temperature-dependent framework is critical for understanding likelihood and magnitude of outbreaks.

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Three-way interactions between mosquito population, viral strain and temperature underlying chikungunya virus transmission potential.

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Three-way interactions between mosquito population, viral strain and temperature underlying chikungunya virus transmission potential.

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