Unknown

Dataset Information

0

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.


ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS:We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS:We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION:Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING:Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

SUBMITTER: Wang H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4165626 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

altmetric image

Publications

Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

Wang Haidong H   Liddell Chelsea A CA   Coates Matthew M MM   Mooney Meghan D MD   Levitz Carly E CE   Schumacher Austin E AE   Apfel Henry H   Iannarone Marissa M   Phillips Bryan B   Lofgren Katherine T KT   Sandar Logan L   Dorrington Rob E RE   Rakovac Ivo I   Jacobs Troy A TA   Liang Xiaofeng X   Zhou Maigeng M   Zhu Jun J   Yang Gonghuan G   Wang Yanping Y   Liu Shiwei S   Li Yichong Y   Ozgoren Ayse Abbasoglu AA   Abera Semaw Ferede SF   Abubakar Ibrahim I   Achoki Tom T   Adelekan Ademola A   Ademi Zanfina Z   Alemu Zewdie Aderaw ZA   Allen Peter J PJ   AlMazroa Mohammad AbdulAziz MA   Alvarez Elena E   Amankwaa Adansi A AA   Amare Azmeraw T AT   Ammar Walid W   Anwari Palwasha P   Cunningham Solveig Argeseanu SA   Asad Majed Masoud MM   Assadi Reza R   Banerjee Amitava A   Basu Sanjay S   Bedi Neeraj N   Bekele Tolesa T   Bell Michelle L ML   Bhutta Zulfiqar Z   Blore Jed D JD   Basara Berrak Bora BB   Boufous Soufiane S   Breitborde Nicholas N   Bruce Nigel G NG   Bui Linh Ngoc LN   Carapetis Jonathan R JR   Cárdenas Rosario R   Carpenter David O DO   Caso Valeria V   Castro Ruben Estanislao RE   Catalá-Lopéz Ferrán F   Cavlin Alanur A   Che Xuan X   Chiang Peggy Pei-Chia PP   Chowdhury Rajiv R   Christophi Costas A CA   Christophi Costas A CA   Chuang Ting-Wu TW   Cirillo Massimo M   da Costa Leite Iuri I   Courville Karen J KJ   Dandona Lalit L   Dandona Rakhi R   Davis Adrian A   Dayama Anand A   Deribe Kebede K   Dharmaratne Samath D SD   Dherani Mukesh K MK   Dilmen Uğur U   Ding Eric L EL   Edmond Karen M KM   Ermakov Sergei Petrovich SP   Farzadfar Farshad F   Fereshtehnejad Seyed-Mohammad SM   Fijabi Daniel Obadare DO   Foigt Nataliya N   Forouzanfar Mohammad H MH   Garcia Ana C AC   Geleijnse Johanna M JM   Gessner Bradford D BD   Goginashvili Ketevan K   Gona Philimon P   Goto Atsushi A   Gouda Hebe N HN   Green Mark A MA   Greenwell Karen Fern KF   Gugnani Harish Chander HC   Gupta Rahul R   Hamadeh Randah Ribhi RR   Hammami Mouhanad M   Harb Hilda L HL   Hay Simon S   Hedayati Mohammad T MT   Hosgood H Dean HD   Hoy Damian G DG   Idrisov Bulat T BT   Islami Farhad F   Ismayilova Samaya S   Jha Vivekanand V   Jiang Guohong G   Jonas Jost B JB   Juel Knud K   Kabagambe Edmond Kato EK   Kazi Dhruv S DS   Kengne Andre Pascal AP   Kereselidze Maia M   Khader Yousef Saleh YS   Khalifa Shams Eldin Ali Hassan SE   Khang Young-Ho YH   Kim Daniel D   Kinfu Yohannes Y   Kinge Jonas M JM   Kokubo Yoshihiro Y   Kosen Soewarta S   Defo Barthelemy Kuate BK   Kumar G Anil GA   Kumar Kaushalendra K   Kumar Ravi B RB   Lai Taavi T   Lan Qing Q   Larsson Anders A   Lee Jong-Tae JT   Leinsalu Mall M   Lim Stephen S SS   Lipshultz Steven E SE   Logroscino Giancarlo G   Lotufo Paulo A PA   Lunevicius Raimundas R   Lyons Ronan Anthony RA   Ma Stefan S   Mahdi Abbas Ali AA   Marzan Melvin Barrientos MB   Mashal Mohammad Taufiq MT   Mazorodze Tasara T TT   McGrath John J JJ   Memish Ziad A ZA   Mendoza Walter W   Mensah George A GA   Meretoja Atte A   Miller Ted R TR   Mills Edward J EJ   Mohammad Karzan Abdulmuhsin KA   Mokdad Ali H AH   Monasta Lorenzo L   Montico Marcella M   Moore Ami R AR   Moschandreas Joanna J   Msemburi William T WT   Mueller Ulrich O UO   Muszynska Magdalena M MM   Naghavi Mohsen M   Naidoo Kovin S KS   Narayan K M Venkat KM   Nejjari Chakib C   Ng Marie M   de Dieu Ngirabega Jean J   Nieuwenhuijsen Mark J MJ   Nyakarahuka Luke L   Ohkubo Takayoshi T   Omer Saad B SB   Caicedo Angel J Paternina AJ   Pillay-van Wyk Victoria V   Pope Dan D   Pourmalek Farshad F   Prabhakaran Dorairaj D   Rahman Sajjad U R SU   Rana Saleem M SM   Reilly Robert Quentin RQ   Rojas-Rueda David D   Ronfani Luca L   Rushton Lesley L   Saeedi Mohammad Yahya MY   Salomon Joshua A JA   Sampson Uchechukwu U   Santos Itamar S IS   Sawhney Monika M   Schmidt Jürgen C JC   Shakh-Nazarova Marina M   She Jun J   Sheikhbahaei Sara S   Shibuya Kenji K   Shin Hwashin Hyun HH   Shishani Kawkab K   Shiue Ivy I   Sigfusdottir Inga Dora ID   Singh Jasvinder A JA   Skirbekk Vegard V   Sliwa Karen K   Soshnikov Sergey S SS   Sposato Luciano A LA   Stathopoulou Vasiliki Kalliopi VK   Stroumpoulis Konstantinos K   Tabb Karen M KM   Talongwa Roberto Tchio RT   Teixeira Carolina Maria CM   Terkawi Abdullah Sulieman AS   Thomson Alan J AJ   Thorne-Lyman Andrew L AL   Toyoshima Hideaki H   Dimbuene Zacharie Tsala ZT   Uwaliraye Parfait P   Uzun Selen Begüm SB   Vasankari Tommi J TJ   Vasconcelos Ana Maria Nogales AM   Vlassov Vasiliy Victorovich VV   Vollset Stein Emil SE   Waller Stephen S   Wan Xia X   Weichenthal Scott S   Weiderpass Elisabete E   Weintraub Robert G RG   Westerman Ronny R   Wilkinson James D JD   Williams Hywel C HC   Yang Yang C YC   Yentur Gokalp Kadri GK   Yip Paul P   Yonemoto Naohiro N   Younis Mustafa M   Yu Chuanhua C   Jin Kim Yun KY   El Sayed Zaki Maysaa M   Zhu Shankuan S   Vos Theo T   Lopez Alan D AD   Murray Christopher J L CJ  

Lancet (London, England) 20140502 9947


<h4>Background</h4>Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.<h4>Methods</h4>We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late  ...[more]

Similar Datasets

| S-EPMC4255481 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC9157382 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC10043440 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC6970225 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC6598639 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC7904878 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC9779128 | biostudies-literature
| S-EPMC5224694 | biostudies-literature