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A risk prediction model for smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth.

ABSTRACT: Smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth is problematic. In light of the research showing that preventing smoking experimentation is a valid strategy for smoking prevention, there is a need to identify Mexican American youth at high risk for experimentation.A prospective population-based cohort of 1,179 adolescents of Mexican descent was followed for 5 years starting in 2005-06. Participants completed a baseline interview at a home visit followed by three telephone interviews at intervals of approximately 6 months and additional interviews at two home visits in 2008-09 and 2010-11. The primary endpoint of interest in this study was smoking experimentation. Information about social, cultural, and behavioral factors (e.g., acculturation, susceptibility to experimentation, home characteristics, and household influences) was collected at baseline using validated questionnaires.Age, sex, cognitive susceptibility, household smoking behavior, peer influence, neighborhood influence, acculturation, work characteristics, positive outcome expectations, family cohesion, degree of tension, ability to concentrate, and school discipline were found to be associated with smoking experimentation. In a validation dataset, the proposed risk prediction model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.719 (95% confidence interval, 0.637-0.801) for predicting absolute risk for smoking experimentation within 1 year.The proposed risk prediction model is able to quantify the risk of smoking experimentation in Mexican American adolescents.Accurately identifying Mexican American adolescents who are at higher risk for smoking experimentation who can be intervened will substantially reduce the incidence of smoking and thereby subsequent health risks.

SUBMITTER: Talluri R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4184980 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A risk prediction model for smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth.

Talluri Rajesh R Wilkinson Anna V AV Spitz Margaret R MR Shete Sanjay S

Cancer epidemiology, biomarkers & prevention : a publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology 20140725 10

<h4>Background</h4>Smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth is problematic. In light of the research showing that preventing smoking experimentation is a valid strategy for smoking prevention, there is a need to identify Mexican American youth at high risk for experimentation.<h4>Methods</h4>A prospective population-based cohort of 1,179 adolescents of Mexican descent was followed for 5 years starting in 2005-06. Participants completed a baseline interview at a home visit followed by th ...[more]

PMID: 25063521

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Project description:The first goal of this study was to identify the most appropriate measure of cigarette smoking for identifying unique smoking trajectories among adolescents; the second goal was to describe the resulting trajectories and their characteristics. Using 15 annual waves of smoking data in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), we conducted an exploratory latent class growth analysis to determine the best of four outcome variables for yearly smoking (cigarettes per day on days smoked, days smoked per month, mean cigarettes per day, and total cigarettes per month) among individuals aged 12 to 30 (n = 8,791). Days smoked per month was the best outcome variable for identifying unique longitudinal trajectories of smoking and characteristics of these trajectories that could be used to target different types of smokers for prevention and cessation. Objective statistics were used to identify four trajectories in addition to never smokers (34.1%): experimenters (13.6%), quitters (8.1%), early established smokers (39.0%), and late escalators (5.2%). We identified a quitter and late escalator class not identified in the only other comparable latent class growth analysis. Logistic regressions were used to identify the characteristics of individuals in each trajectory. Compared with never smokers, all trajectories except late escalators were less likely to be black; experimenters were more likely to be out of school and unemployed and drink alcohol in adolescence; quitters were more likely to have a mother with a high school degree/GED or higher (versus none) and to use substances in adolescence and less likely to have ever married as a young adult; early established smokers were more likely to have a mother with a high school diploma or GED, be out of school and unemployed, not live with both parents, have used substances, be depressed, and have peers who smoked in adolescence and to have children as young adults and less likely to be Hispanic and to have ever married as young adults; and late escalators were more likely to be Hispanic, drink alcohol, and break rules in adolescence and less likely to have ever married as young adults. Because of the number of waves of data analyzed, this analysis provided a clearer temporal depiction of smoking behavior and more easily distinguishable smoking trajectories than previous analyses. Tobacco control interventions need to move beyond youth-focused approaches to reach all smokers.

Project description:BackgroundDespite well-established negative health consequences of smokeless tobacco use (STU), the number and variety of alternative non-combustible tobacco products on the market have increased tremendously over the last 10 years, as has the market share of these products relative to cigarettes. While STU among non-Hispanic white youth has decreased over the last 10 years, the prevalence has remained constant among Hispanic youth. Here we examine demographic, psychosocial, and genetic risk associated with STU among Mexican heritage youth.MethodsParticipants (50.5 % girls) reported on psychosocial risk factors in 2008-09 (n = 1,087, mean age = 14.3 years), and smokeless tobacco use in 2010-11 (mean age = 16.7 years). Participants provided a saliva sample that was genotyped for genes in the dopamine, serotonin and opioid pathways.ResultsOverall 62 (5.7 %) participants reported lifetime STU. We identified five single nucleotide polymorphisms that increased the risk for lifetime use. Specifically, rs2023902 on SERGEF (OR = 1.93; 95 % CI: 1.05-3.53), rs16941667 on ALDH2 (OR = 3.14; 95 % CI: 1.65-5.94), and rs17721739 on TPH1 (OR = 1.71; 95 % CI: 1.00-2.91) in the dopamine pathway, rs514912 on TRH-DE (OR = 1.84; 95 % CI: 1.25-2.71) in the serotonin pathway, and rs42451417 on the serotonin transporter gene, SLC6A4 (OR = 3.53; 95 % CI: 1.56-7.97). After controlling for genetic risk, being male (OR = 1.86; 95 % CI: 1.02-3.41), obesity status (OR = 2.22; 95 % CI: 1.21-4.09), and both higher levels of anxiety (OR = 1.04; 95 % CI: 1.01-1.08) and social disinhibition (OR = 1.26; 95 % CI: 1.07-1.48) were associated with increased use. High subjective social status (OR = 0.78; 95 % CI: 0.64-0.93) was protective against use, while higher parental education (OR = 2.01; 95 % CI: 1.03-3.93) was associated with increased use.ConclusionsThese data suggest that use of genetic risk, along with psychosocial, demographic, and behavioral risk factors may increase our ability to identify youth at increased risk for STU, which in turn may improve our ability to effectively target prevention messages to Mexican heritage youth.

Dataset Information

A risk prediction model for smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth.

Publications

A risk prediction model for smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth.

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