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Approaches to refining estimates of global burden and economics of dengue.

ABSTRACT: Dengue presents a formidable and growing global economic and disease burden, with around half the world's population estimated to be at risk of infection. There is wide variation and substantial uncertainty in current estimates of dengue disease burden and, consequently, on economic burden estimates. Dengue disease varies across time, geography and persons affected. Variations in the transmission of four different viruses and interactions among vector density and host's immune status, age, pre-existing medical conditions, all contribute to the disease's complexity. This systematic review aims to identify and examine estimates of dengue disease burden and costs, discuss major sources of uncertainty, and suggest next steps to improve estimates. Economic analysis of dengue is mainly concerned with costs of illness, particularly in estimating total episodes of symptomatic dengue. However, national dengue disease reporting systems show a great diversity in design and implementation, hindering accurate global estimates of dengue episodes and country comparisons. A combination of immediate, short-, and long-term strategies could substantially improve estimates of disease and, consequently, of economic burden of dengue. Suggestions for immediate implementation include refining analysis of currently available data to adjust reported episodes and expanding data collection in empirical studies, such as documenting the number of ambulatory visits before and after hospitalization and including breakdowns by age. Short-term recommendations include merging multiple data sources, such as cohort and surveillance data to evaluate the accuracy of reporting rates (by health sector, treatment, severity, etc.), and using covariates to extrapolate dengue incidence to locations with no or limited reporting. Long-term efforts aim at strengthening capacity to document dengue transmission using serological methods to systematically analyze and relate to epidemiologic data. As promising tools for diagnosis, vaccination, vector control, and treatment are being developed, these recommended steps should improve objective, systematic measures of dengue burden to strengthen health policy decisions.

SUBMITTER: Shepard DS

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4238988 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background:Cervical cancer represents an important preventable cause of morbidity and mortality in developing countries such as Brazil. Investigating temporal evolution of a disease burden in the different realities of the country is essential for improving public policies. Objective:To describe the national and subnational burden of cervical cancer, based on the estimates of the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. Methods:Descriptive study of premature mortality (years of life lost [YLL]) and burden of disease (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) associated with cervical cancer among Brazilian women aged 25-64 years, between 2000 and 2017. Findings:During the study period, age-standardized incidence decreased from 23.53 (22.79-24.26) to 18.39 (17.63-19.17) per 100,000 women, while mortality rates decreased from 11.3 (11.05-11.56) to 7.74 (7.49-8.02) per 100,000 women. These rates were about two to three times greater than equivalent rates in a developed country, such as England: 11.98 (11.45-12.55) to 10.37 (9.85-10.9), and 3.75 (3.68-3.84) to 2.82 (2.75-2.9) per 100,000 women, respectively. Poorer regions of Brazil had greater rates of the disease; for instance, Amapá State in the Northern Region had rates twice as high as the national rates during the same period. Cervical cancer was the leading cause of premature cancer-related mortality (YLL = 100.69, 91.48-110.61 per 100,000 women) among young women (25-29 years) in Brazil and eight federation units of all country regions except the Southeast in 2017. There was a decrease in the burden of cervical cancer in Brazil from 339.59 (330.82-348.83) DALYs per 100,000 women in 2000 to 238.99 (230.45-247.99) DALYs per 100,000 women in 2017. Conclusion:Although there has been a reduction in the burden of cervical cancer in Brazil, the rates remain high, mainly among young women. The persistence of inequalities between regions of Brazil suggests the importance of socioeconomic determinants in the burden for this cancer.

Project description:Dengue is the most common arbovirus infection globally, but its burden is poorly quantified. We estimated dengue mortality, incidence, and burden for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.We modelled mortality from vital registration, verbal autopsy, and surveillance data using the Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling tool. We modelled incidence from officially reported cases, and adjusted our raw estimates for under-reporting based on published estimates of expansion factors. In total, we had 1780 country-years of mortality data from 130 countries, 1636 country-years of dengue case reports from 76 countries, and expansion factor estimates for 14 countries.We estimated an average of 9221 dengue deaths per year between 1990 and 2013, increasing from a low of 8277 (95% uncertainty estimate 5353-10 649) in 1992, to a peak of 11?302 (6790-13?722) in 2010. This yielded a total of 576?900 (330?000-701?200) years of life lost to premature mortality attributable to dengue in 2013. The incidence of dengue increased greatly between 1990 and 2013, with the number of cases more than doubling every decade, from 8·3 million (3·3 million-17·2 million) apparent cases in 1990, to 58·4 million (23·6 million-121·9 million) apparent cases in 2013. When accounting for disability from moderate and severe acute dengue, and post-dengue chronic fatigue, 566?000 (186?000-1?415?000) years lived with disability were attributable to dengue in 2013. Considering fatal and non-fatal outcomes together, dengue was responsible for 1·14 million (0·73 million-1·98 million) disability-adjusted life-years in 2013.Although lower than other estimates, our results offer more evidence that the true symptomatic incidence of dengue probably falls within the commonly cited range of 50 million to 100 million cases per year. Our mortality estimates are lower than those presented elsewhere and should be considered in light of the totality of evidence suggesting that dengue mortality might, in fact, be substantially higher.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Project description:BackgroundA growing literature has documented the high global morbidity, mortality and mental health burden associated with the current Covid-19 pandemic. In this paper, we aimed to quantify the total utility and quality of life loss resulting from Covid-19-related government restrictions imposed at the national, regional and global levels.MethodsWe conducted quality of life online surveys in France, India, Italy, UK and the United States of America between June 21st and September 13th 2021, and used regression models to estimate the average quality of life loss due to light and severe restrictions in these countries. We then combined estimated disutility weights from the pooled sample with the latest data on Covid-19 restrictions exposure in each country to estimate the total disutility generated by restrictions at the national, regional and global level. We also embedded a discrete choice experiment (DCE) into the online survey to estimate average willingness to pay to avoid specific restrictions.FindingsA total of 947 surveys were completed. Thirty-five percent of respondents were female, and 69.5% were between 18 and 39 years old. The weighted average utility weight was 0.71 (95% CIs 0.69-0.74) for light restrictions, and 0.65 (0.63-0.68) for severe restrictions. At the global scale, this implies a total loss of 3259 million QALYs (95% 3021, 3496) as of September 6th, 2021, with the highest burden in lower and upper middle-income countries. Utility losses appear to be particularly large for closures of schools and daycares as well as restaurants and bars, and seem relatively small for wearing masks and travel restrictions.InterpretationThe results presented here suggest that the QALY losses due to restrictions are substantial. Future mitigation strategies should try to balance potential reductions in disease transmission achievable through specific measures against their respective impact on quality of life. Additional research is needed to determine differences in restriction-specific disutilities across countries, and to determine optimal policy responses to similar future disease threats.FundingNo funding was received for this project.

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Approaches to refining estimates of global burden and economics of dengue.

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