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The effects of demography and long-term selection on the accuracy of genomic prediction with sequence data.

ABSTRACT: The use of dense SNPs to predict the genetic value of an individual for a complex trait is often referred to as "genomic selection" in livestock and crops, but is also relevant to human genetics to predict, for example, complex genetic disease risk. The accuracy of prediction depends on the strength of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and causal mutations. If sequence data were used instead of dense SNPs, accuracy should increase because causal mutations are present, but demographic history and long-term negative selection also influence accuracy. We therefore evaluated genomic prediction, using simulated sequence in two contrasting populations: one reducing from an ancestrally large effective population size (Ne) to a small one, with high LD common in domestic livestock, while the second had a large constant-sized Ne with low LD similar to that in some human or outbred plant populations. There were two scenarios in each population; causal variants were either neutral or under long-term negative selection. For large Ne, sequence data led to a 22% increase in accuracy relative to ?600K SNP chip data with a Bayesian analysis and a more modest advantage with a BLUP analysis. This advantage increased when causal variants were influenced by negative selection, and accuracy persisted when 10 generations separated reference and validation populations. However, in the reducing Ne population, there was little advantage for sequence even with negative selection. This study demonstrates the joint influence of demography and selection on accuracy of prediction and improves our understanding of how best to exploit sequence for genomic prediction.

SUBMITTER: MacLeod IM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4256779 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The effects of demography and long-term selection on the accuracy of genomic prediction with sequence data.

MacLeod Iona M IM Hayes Ben J BJ Goddard Michael E ME

Genetics 20140918 4

The use of dense SNPs to predict the genetic value of an individual for a complex trait is often referred to as "genomic selection" in livestock and crops, but is also relevant to human genetics to predict, for example, complex genetic disease risk. The accuracy of prediction depends on the strength of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and causal mutations. If sequence data were used instead of dense SNPs, accuracy should increase because causal mutations are present, but demographic hist ...[more]

PMID: 25233989

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Project description:BackgroundGenomic selection has revolutionized genetic improvement in animals and plants, but little is known about its long-term effects. Here, we investigated the long-term effects of genomic selection on response to selection, genetic variance, and the genetic architecture of traits using stochastic simulations. We defined the genetic architecture as the set of causal loci underlying each trait, their allele frequencies, and their statistical additive effects. We simulated a livestock population under 50 generations of phenotypic, pedigree, or genomic selection for a single trait, controlled by either only additive, additive and dominance, or additive, dominance, and epistatic effects. The simulated epistasis was based on yeast data.ResultsShort-term response was always greatest with genomic selection, while response after 50 generations was greater with phenotypic selection than with genomic selection when epistasis was present, and was always greater than with pedigree selection. This was mainly because loss of genetic variance and of segregating loci was much greater with genomic and pedigree selection than with phenotypic selection. Compared to pedigree selection, selection response was always greater with genomic selection. Pedigree and genomic selection lost a similar amount of genetic variance after 50 generations of selection, but genomic selection maintained more segregating loci, which on average had lower minor allele frequencies than with pedigree selection. Based on this result, genomic selection is expected to better maintain genetic gain after 50 generations than pedigree selection. The amount of change in the genetic architecture of traits was considerable across generations and was similar for genomic and pedigree selection, but slightly less for phenotypic selection. Presence of epistasis resulted in smaller changes in allele frequencies and less fixation of causal loci, but resulted in substantial changes in statistical additive effects across generations.ConclusionsOur results show that genomic selection outperforms pedigree selection in terms of long-term genetic gain, but results in a similar reduction of genetic variance. The genetic architecture of traits changed considerably across generations, especially under selection and when non-additive effects were present. In conclusion, non-additive effects had a substantial impact on the accuracy of selection and long-term response to selection, especially when selection was accurate.

Dataset Information

The effects of demography and long-term selection on the accuracy of genomic prediction with sequence data.

Publications

The effects of demography and long-term selection on the accuracy of genomic prediction with sequence data.

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