The Accuracy and Bias of Single-Step Genomic Prediction for Populations Under Selection.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hsu WL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5555473 | biostudies-other | 2017 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Recurrent selection (RS) has been used in plant breeding to successively improve synthetic and other multiparental populations. Synthetics are generated from a limited number of parents [Formula: see text] but little is known about how [Formula: see text] affects genomic selection (GS) in RS, especially the persistency of prediction accuracy ([Formula: see text]) and genetic gain. Synthetics were simulated by intermating [Formula: see text]= 2-32 parent lines from an ancestral population with short- or long-range linkage disequilibrium ([Formula: see text]) and subjected to multiple cycles of GS. We determined [Formula: see text] and genetic gain across 30 cycles for different training set (TS) sizes, marker densities, and generations of recombination before model training. Contributions to [Formula: see text] and genetic gain from pedigree relationships, as well as from cosegregation and [Formula: see text] between QTL and markers, were analyzed via four scenarios differing in (i) the relatedness between TS and selection candidates and (ii) whether selection was based on markers or pedigree records. Persistency of [Formula: see text] was high for small [Formula: see text] where predominantly cosegregation contributed to [Formula: see text], but also for large [Formula: see text] where [Formula: see text] replaced cosegregation as the dominant information source. Together with increasing genetic variance, this compensation resulted in relatively constant long- and short-term genetic gain for increasing [Formula: see text] > 4, given long-range LDA in the ancestral population. Although our scenarios suggest that information from pedigree relationships contributed to [Formula: see text] for only very few generations in GS, we expect a longer contribution than in pedigree BLUP, because capturing Mendelian sampling by markers reduces selective pressure on pedigree relationships. Larger TS size ([Formula: see text]) and higher marker density improved persistency of [Formula: see text] and hence genetic gain, but additional recombinations could not increase genetic gain.
| S-EPMC5345710 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:Genomic selection (GS) is becoming popular in animals' genetic development. We, therefore, investigated the single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) as tool for GS, and compared its efficacy with the traditional pedigree BLUP (pedBLUP) method. METHODS:A total of 9,952 males born between 1997 and 2018 under Hanwoo proven-bull selection program was studied. We analyzed body weight at 12 months and carcass weight (kg), backfat thickness, eye muscle area, and marbling score traits. About 7,387 bulls were genotyped using Illumina 50K BeadChip Arrays. Multiple-trait animal model analyses were performed using BLUPF90 software programs. Breeding value accuracy was calculated using two. METHODS:i) Pearson's correlation of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) with EBV of all animals (rM1) and ii) correlation using inverse of coefficient matrix from the mixed-model equations (rM2). Then, we compared these accuracies by overall population, info-type (PHEN, phenotyped-only; GEN, genotyped-only; and PH+GEN, phenotyped and genotyped), and bull-types (YBULL, young male calves; CBULL, young candidate bulls; and PBULL, proven bulls). RESULTS:The rM1 estimates in the study were between 0.90 and 0.96 among five traits. The rM1 estimates varied slightly by population and info-type, but noticeably by bull-type for traits. Generally average rM2 estimates were much smaller than rM1 (pedBLUP, 0.40 to0.44; ssGBLUP, 0.41 to 0.45) at population level. However, rM2 from both BLUP models varied noticeably across info-types and bull-types. The ssGBLUP estimates of rM2 in PHEN, GEN, and PH+ GEN ranged between 0.51 and 0.63, 0.66 and 0.70, and 0.68 and 0.73, respectively. In YBULL, CBULL, and PBULL, the rM2 estimates ranged between 0.54 and 0.57, 0.55 and 0.62, and 0.70 and 0.74, respectively. The pedBLUP based rM2 estimates were also relatively lower than ssGBLUP estimates. At the population level, we found an increase in accuracy by 2.0% to 4.5% among traits. Traits in PHEN were least influenced by ssGBLUP (0% to 2.0%), whereas the highest positive changes were in GEN (8.1% to 10.7%). PH+GEN also showed 6.5% to 8.5% increase in accuracy by ssGBLUP. However, the highest improvements were found in bull-types (YBULL, 21% to 35.7%; CBULL, 3.3% to 9.3%; PBULL, 2.8% to 6.1%). CONCLUSION:A noticeable improvement by ssGBLUP was observed in this study. Findings of differential responses to ssGBLUP by various bulls could assist in better selection decision making as well. We, therefore, suggest that ssGBLUP could be used for GS in Hanwoo provenbull evaluation program.
| S-EPMC7463086 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Key messageWe propose a criterion to predict genomic selection efficiency for structured populations. This criterion is useful to define optimal calibration set and to estimate prediction reliability for multiparental populations. Genomic selection refers to the use of genotypic information for predicting the performance of selection candidates. It has been shown that prediction accuracy depends on various parameters including the composition of the calibration set (CS). Assessing the level of accuracy of a given prediction scenario is of highest importance because it can be used to optimize CS sampling before collecting phenotypes, and once the breeding values are predicted it informs the breeders about the reliability of these predictions. Different criteria were proposed to optimize CS sampling in highly diverse panels, which can be useful to screen collections of genotypes. But plant breeders often work on structured material such as biparental or multiparental populations, for which these criteria are less adapted. We derived from the generalized coefficient of determination (CD) theory different criteria to optimize CS sampling and to assess the reliability associated to predictions in structured populations. These criteria were evaluated on two nested association mapping (NAM) populations and two highly diverse panels of maize. They were efficient to sample optimized CS in most situations. They could also estimate at least partly the reliability associated to predictions between NAM families, but they could not estimate differences in the reliability associated to the predictions of NAM families using the highly diverse panels as calibration sets. We illustrated that the CD criteria could be adapted to various prediction scenarios including inter and intra-family predictions, resulting in higher prediction accuracies.
| S-EPMC5641287 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Genetic correlations between quantitative traits measured in many breeding programs are pervasive. These correlations indicate that measurements of one trait carry information on other traits. Current single-trait (univariate) genomic selection does not take advantage of this information. Multivariate genomic selection on multiple traits could accomplish this but has been little explored and tested in practical breeding programs. In this study, three multivariate linear models (i.e., GBLUP, BayesA, and BayesC?) were presented and compared to univariate models using simulated and real quantitative traits controlled by different genetic architectures. We also extended BayesA with fixed hyperparameters to a full hierarchical model that estimated hyperparameters and BayesC? to impute missing phenotypes. We found that optimal marker-effect variance priors depended on the genetic architecture of the trait so that estimating them was beneficial. We showed that the prediction accuracy for a low-heritability trait could be significantly increased by multivariate genomic selection when a correlated high-heritability trait was available. Further, multiple-trait genomic selection had higher prediction accuracy than single-trait genomic selection when phenotypes are not available on all individuals and traits. Additional factors affecting the performance of multiple-trait genomic selection were explored.
| S-EPMC3512156 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Phenotype prediction is a key goal for medical genetics. Unfortunately, most genome-wide association studies are done in European populations, which reduces the accuracy of predictions via polygenic scores in non-European populations. Here, we use population genetic models to show that human demographic history and negative selection on complex traits can result in population-specific genetic architectures. For traits where alleles with the largest effect on the trait are under the strongest negative selection, approximately half of the heritability can be accounted for by variants in Europe that are absent from Africa, leading to poor performance in phenotype prediction across these populations. Further, under such a model, individuals in the tails of the genetic risk distribution may not be identified via polygenic scores generated in another population. We empirically test these predictions by building a model to stratify heritability between European-specific and shared variants and applied it to 37 traits and diseases in the UK Biobank. Across these phenotypes, ∼30% of the heritability comes from European-specific variants. We conclude that genetic association studies need to include more diverse populations to enable the utility of phenotype prediction in all populations.
| S-EPMC8059340 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Across the majority livestock species, routinely collected genomic and pedigree information has been incorporated into evaluations using single-step methods. As a result, strategies that reduce genotyping costs without reducing the response to selection are important as they could have substantial economic impacts on breeding programs. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to investigate the impact of selectively genotyping selection candidates on the selection response using simulation. Populations were simulated to mimic the genome and population structure of a swine and cattle population undergoing selection on an index comprised of the estimated breeding values (EBV) for 2 genetically correlated quantitative traits. Ten generations were generated and genotyping began generation 7. Two phenotyping scenarios were simulated that assumed the first trait was recorded early in life on all individuals and the second trait was recorded on all versus a random subset of the individuals. The EBV were generated from a bivariate animal model. Multiple genotyping scenarios were generated that ranged from not genotyping any selection candidates, a proportion of the selection candidates based on either their index value or chosen at random, and genotyping all selection candidates. An interim index value was utilized to decide who to genotype for the selective genotype strategy. The interim value assumed only the first trait was observed and the only genotypic information available was on animals in previous generations. Within each genotyping scenario 25 replicates were generated. Within each genotyping scenario the mean response per generation and the degree to which EBV were inflated/deflated was calculated. Across both species and phenotyping strategies, the plateau of diminishing returns was observed when 60% of the selection candidates with the largest index values were genotyped. When randomly genotyping selection candidates, either 80 or 100% of the selection candidates needed to be genotyped for there not to be a reduction in the index response. Across both populations, no differences in the degree that EBV were inflated/deflated for either trait 1 or 2 were observed between nongenotyped and genotyped animals. The current study has shown that animals can be selectively genotyped in order to optimize the response to selection as a function of the cost to conduct a breeding program using single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction.
| S-EPMC6247857 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRecently, there has been a growing interest in the genetic improvement of body measurement traits in farm animals. They are widely used as predictors of performance, longevity, and production traits, and it is worthwhile to investigate the prediction accuracies of genomic selection for these traits. In genomic prediction, the single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction (ssGBLUP) method allows the inclusion of information from genotyped and non-genotyped relatives in the analysis. Hence, we aimed to compare the prediction accuracy obtained from a pedigree-based BLUP only on genotyped animals (PBLUP-G), a traditional pedigree-based BLUP (PBLUP), a genomic BLUP (GBLUP), and a single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) method for the following 10 body measurement traits at yearling age of Hanwoo cattle: body height (BH), body length (BL), chest depth (CD), chest girth (CG), chest width (CW), hip height (HH), hip width (HW), rump length (RL), rump width (RW), and thurl width (TW). The data set comprised 13,067 phenotypic records for body measurement traits and 1523 genotyped animals with 34,460 single-nucleotide polymorphisms. The accuracy for each trait and model was estimated only for genotyped animals using five-fold cross-validations.ResultsThe accuracies ranged from 0.02 to 0.19, 0.22 to 0.42, 0.21 to 0.44, and from 0.36 to 0.55 as assessed using the PBLUP-G, PBLUP, GBLUP, and ssGBLUP methods, respectively. The average predictive accuracies across traits were 0.13 for PBLUP-G, 0.34 for PBLUP, 0.33 for GBLUP, and 0.45 for ssGBLUP methods. Our results demonstrated that averaged across all traits, ssGBLUP outperformed PBLUP and GBLUP by 33 and 43%, respectively, in terms of prediction accuracy. Moreover, the least root of mean square error was obtained by ssGBLUP method.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that considering the ssGBLUP model may be a promising way to ensure acceptable accuracy of predictions for body measurement traits, especially for improving the prediction accuracy of selection candidates in ongoing Hanwoo breeding programs.
| S-EPMC7709290 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Genomic selection based on genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) data could accelerate alfalfa yield gains, if it displayed moderate ability to predict parent breeding values. Its interest would be enhanced by predicting ability also for germplasm/reference populations other than those for which it was defined. Predicting accuracy may be influenced by statistical models, SNP calling procedures and missing data imputation strategies.Landrace and variety material from two genetically-contrasting reference populations, i.e., 124 elite genotypes adapted to the Po Valley (sub-continental climate; PV population) and 154 genotypes adapted to Mediterranean-climate environments (Me population), were genotyped by GBS and phenotyped in separate environments for dry matter yield of their dense-planted half-sib progenies. Both populations showed no sub-population genetic structure. Predictive accuracy was higher by joint rather than separate SNP calling for the two data sets, and using random forest imputation of missing data. Highest accuracy was obtained using Support Vector Regression (SVR) for PV, and Ridge Regression BLUP and SVR for Me germplasm. Bayesian methods (Bayes A, Bayes B and Bayesian Lasso) tended to be less accurate. Random Forest Regression was the least accurate model. Accuracy attained about 0.35 for Me in the range of 0.30-0.50 missing data, and 0.32 for PV at 0.50 missing data, using at least 10,000 SNP markers. Cross-population predictions based on a smaller subset of common SNPs implied a relative loss of accuracy of about 25% for Me and 30% for PV. Genome-wide association analyses based on large subsets of M. truncatula-aligned markers revealed many SNPs with modest association with yield, and some genome areas hosting putative QTLs. A comparison of genomic vs. conventional selection for parent breeding value assuming 1-year vs. 5-year selection cycles, respectively, indicated over three-fold greater predicted yield gain per unit time for genomic selection.Genomic selection for alfalfa yield is promising, based on its moderate prediction accuracy, moderate value of cross-population predictions, and lack of sub-population structure. There is limited scope for searching individual QTLs with overwhelming effect on yield. Some of our results can contribute to better design of genomic selection experiments for alfalfa and other crops with similar mating systems.
| S-EPMC4667460 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Genome-wide molecular markers are often being used to evaluate genetic diversity in germplasm collections and for making genomic selections in breeding programs. To accurately predict phenotypes and assay genetic diversity, molecular markers should assay a representative sample of the polymorphisms in the population under study. Ascertainment bias arises when marker data is not obtained from a random sample of the polymorphisms in the population of interest. Genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) is rapidly emerging as a low-cost genotyping platform, even for the large, complex, and polyploid wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) genome. With GBS, marker discovery and genotyping occur simultaneously, resulting in minimal ascertainment bias. The previous platform of choice for whole-genome genotyping in many species such as wheat was DArT (Diversity Array Technology) and has formed the basis of most of our knowledge about cereals genetic diversity. This study compared GBS and DArT marker platforms for measuring genetic diversity and genomic selection (GS) accuracy in elite U.S. soft winter wheat. From a set of 365 breeding lines, 38,412 single nucleotide polymorphism GBS markers were discovered and genotyped. The GBS SNPs gave a higher GS accuracy than 1,544 DArT markers on the same lines, despite 43.9% missing data. Using a bootstrap approach, we observed significantly more clustering of markers and ascertainment bias with DArT relative to GBS. The minor allele frequency distribution of GBS markers had a deficit of rare variants compared to DArT markers. Despite the ascertainment bias of the DArT markers, GS accuracy for three traits out of four was not significantly different when an equal number of markers were used for each platform. This suggests that the gain in accuracy observed using GBS compared to DArT markers was mainly due to a large increase in the number of markers available for the analysis.
| S-EPMC3764096 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Switchgrass breeders need to improve the rates of genetic gain in many bioenergy-related traits in order to create improved cultivars that are higher yielding and have optimal biomass composition. One way to achieve this is through genomic selection. However, the heritability of traits needs to be determined as well as the accuracy of prediction in order to determine if efficient selection is possible. RESULTS:Using five distinct switchgrass populations comprised of three lowland, one upland and one hybrid accession, the accuracy of genomic predictions under different cross-validation strategies and prediction methods was investigated. Individual genotypes were collected using GBS while kin-BLUP, partial least squares, sparse partial least squares, and BayesB methods were employed to predict yield, morphological, and NIRS-based compositional data collected in 2012-2013 from a replicated Nebraska field trial. Population structure was assessed by F statistics which ranged from 0.3952 between lowland and upland accessions to 0.0131 among the lowland accessions. Prediction accuracy ranged from 0.57-0.52 for cell wall soluble glucose and fructose respectively, to insignificant for traits with low repeatability. Ratios of heritability across to within-population ranged from 15 to 0.6. CONCLUSIONS:Accuracy was significantly affected by both cross-validation strategy and trait. Accounting for population structure with a cross-validation strategy constrained by accession resulted in accuracies that were 69% lower than apparent accuracies using unconstrained cross-validation. Less accurate genomic selection is anticipated when most of the phenotypic variation exists between populations such as with spring regreening and yield phenotypes.
| S-EPMC6038187 | biostudies-literature