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Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector-control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Over the last decade, the incidence of confirmed malaria has declined significantly in Nepal. The aim of this paper is to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal. METHODS:Hotspot analysis was used to visualize the spatio-temporal variation of malaria incidence over the years at village level and generalized additive mixed models were fitted to assess the association of malaria incidence with climatic variables and vector control interventions. RESULTS:Opposing trends of malaria incidence were observed in two high-risk malaria districts of eastern and far-western Nepal after the introduction of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs). The confirmed malaria incidence was reduced from 2.24 per 10,000 in 2007 to 0.31 per 10,000 population in 2011 in Morang district but increased from 3.38 to 8.29 per 10,000 population in Kailali district. Malaria hotspots persisted mostly in the same villages of Kailali district, whereas in Morang district malaria hotspots shifted to new villages after the introduction of LLINs. A 1° C increase in minimum and mean temperatures increased malaria incidence by 27% (RR =1.27, 95% CI =1.12-1.45) and 25% (RR =1.25, 95% CI =1.11-1.43), respectively. The reduction in malaria incidence was 25% per one unit increase of LLINs (RR =0.75, 95% CI =0.62-0.92). The incidence of malaria was 82% lower in Morang than in Kailali district (RR =0.18, 95% CI =0.11-0.33). CONCLUSIONS:The study findings suggest that LLIN coverage should be scaled up to entire districts rather than high-incidence foci only. Climatic factors should be considered for malaria micro-stratification, mosquito repellents should be prescribed for those living in forests, forest fringe and foothills and have regular visits to forests, and imported cases should be controlled by establishing fever check posts at border crossings.

SUBMITTER: Dhimal M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4258811 | biostudies-literature | 2014 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector-control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal.

Dhimal Meghnath M O'Hara Robert B RB Karki Ramchandra R Thakur Garib D GD Kuch Ulrich U Ahrens Bodo B

Malaria journal 20141125

<h4>Background</h4>Over the last decade, the incidence of confirmed malaria has declined significantly in Nepal. The aim of this paper is to assess the spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal.<h4>Methods</h4>Hotspot analysis was used to visualize the spatio-temporal variation of malaria incidence over the years at village level and generalized additive mixed models were fitted to assess ...[more]

PMID: 25421720

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Project description:BackgroundAlthough malaria burden in Uganda has declined since 2009 following the scale-up of interventions, the disease is still the leading cause of hospitalization and death. Transmission remains high and is driven by suitable weather conditions. There is a real concern that intervention gains may be reversed by climatic changes in the country. In this study, we investigate the effects of climate on the spatio-temporal trends of malaria incidence in Uganda during 2013-2017.MethodsBayesian spatio-temporal negative binomial models were fitted on district-aggregated monthly malaria cases, reported by two age groups, defined by a cut-off age of 5 years. Weather data was obtained from remote sensing sources including rainfall, day land surface temperature (LSTD) and night land surface temperature (LSTN), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), altitude, land cover, and distance to water bodies. Spatial and temporal correlations were taken into account by assuming a conditional autoregressive and a first-order autoregressive process on district and monthly specific random effects, respectively. Fourier trigonometric functions modeled seasonal fluctuations in malaria transmission. The effects of climatic changes on the malaria incidence changes between 2013 and 2017 were estimated by modeling the difference in time varying climatic conditions at the two time points and adjusting for the effects of intervention coverage, socio-economic status and health seeking behavior.ResultsMalaria incidence declined steadily from 2013 to 2015 and then increased in 2016. The decrease was by over 38% and 20% in children <5 years and individuals ≥5 years, respectively. Temporal trends depict a strong bi-annual seasonal pattern with two peaks during April-June and October-December. The annual average of rainfall, LSTD and LSTN increased by 3.7 mm, 2.2 °C and 1.0 °C, respectively, between 2013 and 2017, whereas NDVI decreased by 6.8%. On the one hand, the increase in LSTD and decrease in NDVI were associated with a reduction in the incidence decline. On the other hand, malaria interventions and treatment seeking behavior had reverse effects, that were stronger compared to the effects of climatic changes. Important interactions between interventions with NDVI and LSTD suggest a varying impact of interventions on malaria burden in different climatic conditions.ConclusionClimatic changes in Uganda during the last five years contributed to a favorable environment for malaria transmission, and had a detrimental effect on malaria reduction gains achieved through interventions scale-up efforts. The NMCP should create synergies with the National Meteorological Authority with an ultimate goal of developing a Malaria Early Warning System to mitigate adverse climatic change effects on malaria risk in the country.

Project description:BackgroundIn Uganda, malaria vector control interventions and case management with Artemisinin Combination Therapies (ACTs) have been scaled up over the last few years as a result of increased funding. Data on parasitaemia prevalence among children less than 5 years old and coverage of interventions was collected during the first two Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) conducted in 2009 and 2014, respectively. In this study, we quantify the effects of control interventions on parasitaemia risk changes between the two MIS in a spatio-temporal analysis.MethodsBayesian geostatistical and temporal models were fitted on the MIS data of 2009 and 2014. The models took into account geographical misalignment in the locations of the two surveys and adjusted for climatic changes and socio-economic differentials. Parasitaemia risk was predicted over a 2 × 2 km2 grid and the number of infected children less than 5 years old was estimated. Geostatistical variable selection was applied to identify the most important ITN coverage indicators. A spatially varying coefficient model was used to estimate intervention effects at sub-national level.ResultsThe coverage of Insecticide Treated Nets (ITNs) and ACTs more than doubled at country and sub-national levels during the period 2009-2014. The coverage of Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) remained static at all levels. ITNs, IRS, and ACTs were associated with a reduction in parasitaemia odds of 19% (95% BCI: 18-29%), 78% (95% BCI: 67-84%), and 34% (95% BCI: 28-66%), respectively. Intervention effects varied with region. Higher socio-economic status and living in urban areas were associated with parasitaemia odds reduction of 46% (95% BCI: 0.51-0.57) and 57% (95% BCI: 0.40-0.53), respectively. The probability of parasitaemia risk decline in the country was 85% and varied from 70% in the North-East region to 100% in Kampala region. The estimated number of children infected with malaria declined from 2,480,373 in 2009 to 825,636 in 2014.ConclusionsInterventions have had a strong effect on the decline of parasitaemia risk in Uganda during 2009-2014, albeit with varying magnitude in the regions. This success should be sustained by optimizing ITN coverage to achieve universal coverage.

Project description:BackgroundRapidly increasing temperatures in the mountain region of Nepal and recent reports of dengue fever and lymphatic filariasis cases from mountainous areas of central Nepal prompted us to study the spatio-temporal distribution of the vectors of these two diseases along an altitudinal transect in central Nepal.Methodology/principal findingsWe conducted a longitudinal study in four distinct physiographical regions of central Nepal from September 2011 to February 2012. We used BG-Sentinel and CDC light traps to capture adult mosquitoes. We found the geographical distribution of the dengue virus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus along our study transect to extend up to 1,310 m altitude in the Middle Mountain region (Kathmandu). The distribution of the lymphatic filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus extended up to at least 2,100 m in the High Mountain region (Dhunche). Statistical analysis showed a significant effect of the physiographical region and month of collection on the abundance of A. aegypti and C. quinquefasciatus only. BG-Sentinel traps captured significantly higher numbers of A. aegypti than CDC light traps. The meteorological factors temperature, rainfall and relative humidity had significant effects on the mean number of A. aegypti per BG-Sentinel trap. Temperature and relative humidity were significant predictors of the number of C. quinquefasciatus per CDC light trap. Dengue fever and lymphatic filariasis cases had previously been reported from all vector positive areas except Dhunche which was free of known lymphatic filariasis cases.Conclusions/significanceWe conclude that dengue virus vectors have already established stable populations up to the Middle Mountains of Nepal, supporting previous studies, and report for the first time the distribution of lymphatic filariasis vectors up to the High Mountain region of this country. The findings of our study should contribute to a better planning and scaling-up of mosquito-borne disease control programmes in the mountainous areas of Nepal.

Project description:BACKGROUND: A better understanding of the ecology and spatial-temporal distribution of malaria vectors is essential to design more effective and sustainable strategies for malaria control and elimination. In a previous study, we analyzed presence-absence data of An. funestus, An. coluzzii, and An. gambiae s.s. in an area of southern Benin with high coverage of vector control measures. Here, we further extend the work by analysing the positive values of the dataset to assess the determinants of the abundance of these three vectors and to produce predictive maps of vector abundance. METHODS: Positive counts of the three vectors were assessed using negative-binomial zero-truncated (NBZT) mixed-effect models according to vector control measures and environmental covariates derived from field and remote sensing data. After 8-fold cross-validation of the models, predictive maps of abundance of the sympatric An. funestus, An. coluzzii, and An. gambiae s.s. were produced. RESULTS: Cross-validation of the NBZT models showed a satisfactory predictive accuracy. Almost all changes in abundance between two surveys in the same village were well predicted by the models but abundances for An. gambiae s.s. were slightly underestimated. During the dry season, predictive maps showed that abundance greater than 1 bite per person per night were observed only for An. funestus and An. coluzzii. During the rainy season, we observed both increase and decrease in abundance of An. funestus, which are dependent on the ecological setting. Abundances of both An. coluzzii and An. gambiae s.s. increased during the rainy season but not in the same areas. CONCLUSIONS: Our models helped characterize the ecological preferences of three major African malaria vectors. This works highlighted the importance to study independently the binomial and the zero-truncated count processes when evaluating vector control strategies. The study of the bio-ecology of malaria vector species in time and space is critical for the implementation of timely and efficient vector control strategies.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria is an important public health problem in northern Sudan, but little is known about the dynamics of its transmission. Given the characteristic low densities of Anopheles arabiensis and the difficult terrain in this area, future vector control strategies are likely to be based on area-wide integrated pest management (AW-IPM) that may include the sterile insect technique (SIT). To support the planning and implementation of future AW-IPM activities, larval surveys were carried out to provide key data on spatial and seasonal dynamics of local vector populations.MethodsMonthly cross-sectional larval surveys were carried out between March 2005 and May 2007 in two localities (Dongola and Merowe) adjacent to the river Nile. A stratified random sampling strategy based on the use of Remote Sensing (RS), Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and the Global Positioning System (GPS) was used to select survey locations. Breeding sites were mapped using GPS and data on larval density and breeding site characteristics were recorded using handheld computers. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify breeding site characteristics associated with increased risk of presence of larvae. Seasonal patterns in the proportion of breeding sites positive for larvae were compared visually to contemporaneous data on climate and river height.ResultsOf a total of 3,349 aquatic habitats sampled, 321 (9.6%) contained An. arabiensis larvae. The frequency with which larvae were found varied markedly by habitat type. Although most positive sites were associated with temporary standing water around the margins of the main Nile channel, larvae were also found at brickworks and in areas of leaking pipes and canals - often far from the river. Close to the Nile channel, a distinct seasonal pattern in larval populations was evident and appeared to be linked to the rise and fall of the river level. These patterns were not evident in vector populations breeding in artificial water sources away from the river.ConclusionThe GIS-based survey strategy developed in this study provides key data on the population dynamics of An. arabiensis in Northern State. Quantitative estimates of the contributions of various habitat types and their proximity to settlements provide a basis for planning a strategy for reducing malaria risk by elimination of the vector population.

Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector-control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal.

Publications

Spatio-temporal distribution of malaria and its association with climatic factors and vector-control interventions in two high-risk districts of Nepal.

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