Dataset Information

Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.

ABSTRACT: A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are prime examples of diseases that fit the SIR-like mechanism. These infections have been well studied for many systems with large, well-mixed populations with endemic infection. Here, we consider a setting where populations are small and isolated. The dynamics of infection are driven by stochastic extinction-recolonization events, producing large, sudden and short-lived epidemics before rapidly dying out from a lack of susceptible hosts. Using a TSIR model, we fit prevaccination measles incidence and demographic data in Bornholm, the Faroe Islands and four districts of Iceland, between 1901 and 1965. The datasets for each of these countries suffer from different levels of data heterogeneity and sparsity. We explore the potential for prediction of this model: given historical incidence data and up-to-date demographic information, and knowing that a new epidemic has just begun, can we predict how large it will be? We show that, despite a lack of significant seasonality in the incidence of measles cases, and potentially severe heterogeneity at the population level, we are able to estimate the size of upcoming epidemics, conditioned on the first time step, to within reasonable confidence. Our results have potential implications for possible control measures for the early stages of new epidemics in small populations.

SUBMITTER: Caudron Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4277111 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.

Caudron Q Q Mahmud A S AS Metcalf C J E CJ Gottfreðsson M M Viboud C C Cliff A D AD Grenfell B T BT

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface 20150101 102

A standard assumption in the modelling of epidemic dynamics is that the population of interest is well mixed, and that no clusters of metapopulations exist. The well-known and oft-used SIR model, arguably the most important compartmental model in theoretical epidemiology, assumes that the disease being modelled is strongly immunizing, directly transmitted and has a well-defined period of infection, in addition to these population mixing assumptions. Childhood infections, such as measles, are pri ...[more]

PMID: 25411411

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Project description:BackgroundSite-specific Transcription Factors (TFs) are proteins that bind to specific sites on the DNA and control the activity of a target gene by enhancing or decreasing the rate at which the gene is transcribed by RNA polymerase. The process by which TF molecules locate their target sites is a key component of transcriptional regulation. Therefore it is essential to gain insight into the mechanisms by which TFs search for the target sites.Research in this area uses experimental and analytical approaches, but also stochastic simulations of the search process. Previous work based on stochastic simulations focussed only on short sequences, primarily for reasons of technical feasibility. Many of these studies had to disregard possible biases introduced by reducing a genome-wide system to a smaller subsystem. In particular, we identified crucial parameters that require adjustment, which were not adequately changed in these previous studies.ResultsWe investigated several methods that adequately adapt the parameters of stochastic simulations of the facilitated diffusion, when the full sequence space is reduced to smaller regions of interest. We found two methods that scale the system accordingly: the copy number model and the association rate model. We systematically compared the results produced by simulations of the subsystem with respect to the original system. Our results confirmed that the copy number model is adequate only for high abundance TFs, while for low abundance TFs the association rate model is the only one that reproduces with high accuracy the results of the full system.ConclusionsWe propose a strategy to reduce the size of the system that adequately adapts important parameters to capture the behaviour of the full system. This enables correct simulations of a smaller sequence space (which can be as small as 100 Kbp) and, thus, provides independence from computationally intensive genome-wide simulations of the facilitated diffusion mechanism.

Dataset Information

Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.

Publications

Predictability in a highly stochastic system: final size of measles epidemics in small populations.

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