Dataset Information

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The WHO declared the 2014 west African Ebola epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in view of its potential for further international spread. Decision makers worldwide are in need of empirical data to inform and implement emergency response measures. Our aim was to assess the potential for Ebola virus to spread across international borders via commercial air travel and assess the relative efficiency of exit versus entry screening of travellers at commercial airports.

Methods

We analysed International Air Transport Association data for worldwide flight schedules between Sept 1, 2014, and Dec 31, 2014, and historic traveller flight itinerary data from 2013 to describe expected global population movements via commercial air travel out of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Coupled with Ebola virus surveillance data, we modelled the expected number of internationally exported Ebola virus infections, the potential effect of air travel restrictions, and the efficiency of airport-based traveller screening at international ports of entry and exit. We deemed individuals initiating travel from any domestic or international airport within these three countries to have possible exposure to Ebola virus. We deemed all other travellers to have no significant risk of exposure to Ebola virus.

Findings

Based on epidemic conditions and international flight restrictions to and from Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone as of Sept 1, 2014 (reductions in passenger seats by 51% for Liberia, 66% for Guinea, and 85% for Sierra Leone), our model projects 2.8 travellers infected with Ebola virus departing the above three countries via commercial flights, on average, every month. 91,547 (64%) of all air travellers departing Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone had expected destinations in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Screening international travellers departing three airports would enable health assessments of all travellers at highest risk of exposure to Ebola virus infection.

Interpretation

Decision makers must carefully balance the potential harms from travel restrictions imposed on countries that have Ebola virus activity against any potential reductions in risk from Ebola virus importations. Exit screening of travellers at airports in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone would be the most efficient frontier at which to assess the health status of travellers at risk of Ebola virus exposure, however, this intervention might require international support to implement effectively.

Funding

Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

SUBMITTER: Bogoch II

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4286618 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak.

Bogoch Isaac I II Creatore Maria I MI Cetron Martin S MS Brownstein John S JS Pesik Nicki N Miniota Jennifer J Tam Theresa T Hu Wei W Nicolucci Adriano A Ahmed Saad S Yoon James W JW Berry Isha I Hay Simon I SI Anema Aranka A Tatem Andrew J AJ MacFadden Derek D German Matthew M Khan Kamran K

Lancet (London, England) 20141021 9962

<h4>Background</h4>The WHO declared the 2014 west African Ebola epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in view of its potential for further international spread. Decision makers worldwide are in need of empirical data to inform and implement emergency response measures. Our aim was to assess the potential for Ebola virus to spread across international borders via commercial air travel and assess the relative efficiency of exit versus entry screening of travellers at commerci ...[more]

PMID: 25458732

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Project description:BackgroundHealthcare and other front-line workers are at particular risk of infection with Ebola virus (EBOV). Despite the large-scale deployment of international responders, few cases of Ebola virus disease have been diagnosed in this group. Since asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic infection has been described, it is plausible that infections have occurred in healthcare workers but have escaped being diagnosed. We aimed to assess the prevalence of asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic infection, and of exposure events, among returned responders to the West African Ebola epidemic 2014-2016.Methods and findingsWe used snowball sampling to identify responders who had returned to the UK or Ireland, and used an online consent and questionnaire to determine their exposure to EBOV and their experience of illness. Oral fluid collection devices were sent and returned by post, and samples were tested using an EBOV IgG capture assay that detects IgG to Ebola glycoprotein. Blood was collected from returnees with reactive samples for further testing. Unexposed UK controls were also recruited. In all, 300 individuals consented, of whom 268 (89.3%) returned an oral fluid sample (OFS). The majority had worked in Sierra Leone in clinical, laboratory, research, and other roles. Fifty-three UK controls consented and provided samples using the same method. Of the returnees, 47 (17.5%) reported that they had had a possible EBOV exposure. Based on their free-text descriptions, using a published risk assessment method, we classified 43 (16%) as having had incidents with risk of Ebola transmission, including five intermediate-risk and one high-risk exposure. Of the returnees, 57 (21%) reported a febrile or diarrhoeal illness in West Africa or within 1 mo of return, of whom 40 (70%) were not tested at the time for EBOV infection. Of the 268 OFSs, 266 were unreactive. Two returnees, who did not experience an illness in West Africa or on return, had OFSs that were reactive on the EBOV IgG capture assay, with similar results on plasma. One individual had no further positive test results; the other had a positive result on a double-antigen bridging assay but not on a competitive assay or on an indirect EBOV IgG ELISA. All 53 controls had non-reactive OFSs. While the participants were not a random sample of returnees, the number participating was high.ConclusionsThis is the first study, to our knowledge, of the prevalence of EBOV infection in international responders. More than 99% had clear negative results. Sera from two individuals had discordant results on the different assays; both were negative on the competitive assay, suggesting that prior infection was unlikely. The finding that a significant proportion experienced "near miss" exposure events, and that most of those who experienced symptoms did not get tested for EBOV at the time, suggests a need to review and standardise protocols for the management of possible exposure to EBOV, and for the management of illness, across organisations that deploy staff to outbreaks.

Project description:The Ebola virus (EBOV) outbreak in West Africa started in December 2013, claimed more than 11,000 lives, threatened to destabilize a whole region, and showed how easily health crises can turn into humanitarian disasters. EBOV genomic sequences of the West African outbreak revealed nonsynonymous mutations, which induced considerable public attention, but their role in virus spread and disease remains obscure. In this study, we investigated the functional significance of three nonsynonymous mutations that emerged early during the West African EBOV outbreak. Almost 90% of more than 1,000 EBOV genomes sequenced during the outbreak carried the signature of three mutations: a D759G substitution in the active center of the L polymerase, an A82V substitution in the receptor binding domain of surface glycoprotein GP, and an R111C substitution in the self-assembly domain of RNA-encapsidating nucleoprotein NP. Using a newly developed virus-like particle system and reverse genetics, we found that the mutations have an impact on the functions of the respective viral proteins and on the growth of recombinant EBOVs. The mutation in L increased viral transcription and replication, whereas the mutation in NP decreased viral transcription and replication. The mutation in the receptor binding domain of the glycoprotein GP improved the efficiency of GP-mediated viral entry into target cells. Recombinant EBOVs with combinations of the three mutations showed a growth advantage over the prototype isolate Makona C7 lacking the mutations. This study showed that virus variants with improved fitness emerged early during the West African EBOV outbreak.ImportanceThe dimension of the Ebola virus outbreak in West Africa was unprecedented. Amino acid substitutions in the viral L polymerase, surface glycoprotein GP, and nucleocapsid protein NP emerged, were fixed early in the outbreak, and were found in almost 90% of the sequences. Here we showed that these mutations affected the functional activity of viral proteins and improved viral growth in cell culture. Our results demonstrate emergence of adaptive changes in the Ebola virus genome during virus circulation in humans and prompt further studies on the potential role of these changes in virus transmissibility and pathogenicity.

Dataset Information

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

Assessment of the potential for international dissemination of Ebola virus via commercial air travel during the 2014 west African outbreak.

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