A new tool for predicting drought: an application over India.

ABSTRACT: This is the first attempt of application of atmospheric electricity for rainfall prediction. The atmospheric electrical columnar resistance based on the model calculations involving satellite data has been proposed as a new predictor. It is physically sound, simple to calculate and not probabilistic like the standardized precipitation index. After applying this new predictor over India, it has been found that the data solely over the Bay of Bengal (BB) are sufficient to predict a drought over the country as a whole. Finally, two independent new methods to predict drought conditions and a preliminary forecast of the same for India for year 2014 have been given. Unlike the existing drought prediction techniques, the identification of drought conditions in a pre-drought year during 1981-1990 and 2001-2013 over India has been achieved 100% successfully using the suggested new methods. The association between rainfall and this new predictor has also been found on the sub-regional scale. So, the present predictor is expected to get global application and application in climate models. From the analysis, generally, a long period rising trend in aerosol concentration over the BB causes weak monsoon over India but that for a short time i.e. in pre-monsoon period strengthens it.

SUBMITTER: Kulkarni MN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4286766 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature