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Drought index prediction using advanced fuzzy logic model: Regional case study over Kumaon in India.

ABSTRACT: A new version of the fuzzy logic model, called the co-active neuro fuzzy inference system (CANFIS), is introduced for predicting standardized precipitation index (SPI). Multiple scales of drought information at six meteorological stations located in Uttarakhand State, India, are used. Different lead times of SPI were computed for prediction, including 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months, with inputs abstracted by autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial-ACF (PACF) analysis at 5% significance level. The proposed CANFIS model was validated against two models: classical artificial intelligence model (e.g., multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)) and regression model (e.g., multiple linear regression (MLR)). Several performance evaluation metrices (root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of correlation, and Willmott index), and graphical visualizations (scatter plot and Taylor diagram) were computed for the evaluation of model performance. Results indicated that the CANFIS model predicted the SPI better than the other models and prediction results were different for different meteorological stations. The proposed model can build a reliable expert intelligent system for predicting meteorological drought at multi-time scales and decision making for remedial schemes to cope with meteorological drought at the study stations and can help to maintain sustainable water resources management.

SUBMITTER: Malik A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7241731 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Drought index prediction using advanced fuzzy logic model: Regional case study over Kumaon in India.

Malik Anurag A Kumar Anil A Salih Sinan Q SQ Kim Sungwon S Kim Nam Won NW Yaseen Zaher Mundher ZM Singh Vijay P VP

PloS one 20200521 5

A new version of the fuzzy logic model, called the co-active neuro fuzzy inference system (CANFIS), is introduced for predicting standardized precipitation index (SPI). Multiple scales of drought information at six meteorological stations located in Uttarakhand State, India, are used. Different lead times of SPI were computed for prediction, including 1, 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months, with inputs abstracted by autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial-ACF (PACF) analysis at 5% significance level. ...[more]

PMID: 32437386

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Project description:BackgroundTo date, only a limited number of transcriptional regulatory interactions have been uncovered. In a pilot study integrating sequence data with microarray data, a position weight matrix (PWM) performed poorly in inferring transcriptional interactions (TIs), which represent physical interactions between transcription factors (TF) and upstream sequences of target genes. Inferring a TI means that the promoter sequence of a target is inferred to match the consensus sequence motifs of a potential TF, and their interaction type such as AT or RT is also predicted. Thus, a robust PWM (rPWM) was developed to search for consensus sequence motifs. In addition to rPWM, one feature extracted from ChIP-chip data was incorporated to identify potential TIs under specific conditions. An interaction type classifier was assembled to predict activation/repression of potential TIs using microarray data. This approach, combining an adaptive (learning) fuzzy inference system and an interaction type classifier to predict transcriptional regulatory networks, was named AdaFuzzy.ResultsAdaFuzzy was applied to predict TIs using real genomics data from Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Following one of the latest advances in predicting TIs, constrained probabilistic sparse matrix factorization (cPSMF), and using 19 transcription factors (TFs), we compared AdaFuzzy to four well-known approaches using over-representation analysis and gene set enrichment analysis. AdaFuzzy outperformed these four algorithms. Furthermore, AdaFuzzy was shown to perform comparably to 'ChIP-experimental method' in inferring TIs identified by two sets of large scale ChIP-chip data, respectively. AdaFuzzy was also able to classify all predicted TIs into one or more of the four promoter architectures. The results coincided with known promoter architectures in yeast and provided insights into transcriptional regulatory mechanisms.ConclusionAdaFuzzy successfully integrates multiple types of data (sequence, ChIP, and microarray) to predict transcriptional regulatory networks. The validated success in the prediction results implies that AdaFuzzy can be applied to uncover TIs in yeast.

Dataset Information

Drought index prediction using advanced fuzzy logic model: Regional case study over Kumaon in India.

Publications

Drought index prediction using advanced fuzzy logic model: Regional case study over Kumaon in India.

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