Dataset Information

The contribution of primary prevention medication and dietary change in coronary mortality reduction in England between 2000 and 2007: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To analyse the falls in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England between 2000 and 2007 and quantify the relative contributions from preventive medications and population-wide changes in blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol levels, particularly by exploring socioeconomic inequalities.

Design

A modelling study.

Setting

Sources of data included controlled trials and meta-analyses, national surveys and official statistics.

Participants

English population aged 25+ in 2000-2007.

Main outcome measures

Number of deaths prevented or postponed (DPPs) in 2007 by socioeconomic status. We used the IMPACTSEC model which applies the relative risk reduction quantified in previous randomised controlled trials and meta-analyses to partition the mortality reduction among specific treatments and risk factor changes.

Results

Between 2000 and 2007, approximately 20?400 DPPs were attributable to reductions in BP and cholesterol in the English population. The substantial decline in BP was responsible for approximately 13?000 DPPs. Approximately 1800 DPPs came from medications and some 11?200 DPPs from population-wide changes. Reduction in population BP prevented almost twofold more deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent. Reduction in cholesterol resulted in approximately 7400 DPPs; approximately 5300 DPPs were attributable to statin use and approximately 2100 DPPs to population-wide changes. Statins prevented almost 50% more deaths in the most affluent quintile compared with the most deprived. Conversely, population-wide changes in cholesterol prevented threefold more deaths in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent.

Conclusions

Population-wide secular changes in systolic blood pressure (SBP) and cholesterol levels helped to substantially reduce CHD mortality and the associated socioeconomic disparities. Mortality reductions were, in absolute terms, greatest in the most deprived quintiles, mainly reflecting their bigger initial burden of disease. Statins for high-risk individuals also made an important contribution but maintained socioeconomic inequalities. Our results strengthen the case for greater emphasis on preventive approaches, particularly population-based policies to reduce SBP and cholesterol.

SUBMITTER: Guzman-Castillo M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4316419 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The contribution of primary prevention medication and dietary change in coronary mortality reduction in England between 2000 and 2007: a modelling study.

Guzman-Castillo M M Ahmed R R Hawkins N N Scholes S S Wilkinson E E Lucy J J Capewell S S O'Flaherty M M

BMJ open 20150122 1

<h4>Objective</h4>To analyse the falls in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England between 2000 and 2007 and quantify the relative contributions from preventive medications and population-wide changes in blood pressure (BP) and cholesterol levels, particularly by exploring socioeconomic inequalities.<h4>Design</h4>A modelling study.<h4>Setting</h4>Sources of data included controlled trials and meta-analyses, national surveys and official statistics.<h4>Participants</h4>English populatio ...[more]

PMID: 25613952

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Project description:BackgroundCoronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups.Methods and findingsA widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%-107%) of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%-47%) to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%-61%) in the most deprived to 29% (16%-42%) in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%-40%); more so in deprived (37%) than in affluent (25%) areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%), smoking (3%), and physical activity (2%). Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (-9%; -17% to -3%), particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%-70%) of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%), chronic angina treatment (13%), and secondary prevention (11%) made the largest medical contributions.ConclusionsThe model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities.

Project description:Breast cancer (BC), the leading cancer in women, is increasing in prevalence worldwide, concurrent with western metabolic epidemics, that is, obesity, metabolic syndrome, and diabetes, and shares major risk factors with these diseases. The corresponding potential for nutritional contributions toward BC prevention is reviewed and related to critical stages in the life cycle and their implications for carcinogenic and pathometabolic trajectories. BC initiation potentially involves diet-related pro-oxidative, inflammatory, and procarcinogenic processes, that interact through combined lipid/fatty acid peroxidation, estrogen metabolism, and related DNA-adduct/depurination/mutation formation. The pathometabolic trajectory is affected by high estrogen, insulin, and growth factor cascades and resultant accelerated proliferation/progression. Anthropometric risk factors - high birth weight, adult tallness, adiposity/BMI, and weight gain - are often reflective of these trends. A sex-based nutritional approach targets women's specific risk in western obesogenic environments, associated with increasing fatness, estrogen metabolism, n-6 : n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid ratio, and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid conversion to proinflammatory/carcinogenic eicosanoids, and effects of timing of life events, for example, ages at menarche, full-term pregnancy, and menopause. Recent large-scale studies have confirmed the effectiveness of the evidence-based recommendations against BC risk, emphasizing low-energy density diets, highly nutritious plant-based regimes, physical activity, and body/abdominal adiposity management. Better understanding of dietary inter-relationships with BC, as applied to food intake, selection, combination, and processing/preparation, and recommended patterns, for example, Mediterranean, DASH, plant-based, low energy density, and low glycemic load, with high nutrient/phytonutrient density, would increase public motivation and authoritative support for early/timely prevention, optimally merging with other dietary/health goals, for lifelong BC prevention.

Dataset Information

The contribution of primary prevention medication and dietary change in coronary mortality reduction in England between 2000 and 2007: a modelling study.

Objective

Design

Setting

Participants

Main outcome measures

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The contribution of primary prevention medication and dietary change in coronary mortality reduction in England between 2000 and 2007: a modelling study.

Similar Datasets

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