Dataset Information

Development and internal validation of a pediatric acute asthma prediction rule for hospitalization.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Clinicians have difficulty predicting need for hospitalization of children with acute asthma exacerbations.

Objective

The objective of this study was to develop and internally validate a multivariable asthma prediction rule (APR) to inform hospitalization decision making in children aged 5-17 years with acute asthma exacerbations.

Methods

Between April 2008 and February 2013 we enrolled a prospective cohort of patients aged 5-17 years with asthma who presented to our pediatric emergency department with acute exacerbations. Predictors for APR modeling included 15 demographic characteristics, asthma chronic control measures, and pulmonary examination findings in participants at the time of triage and before treatment. The primary outcome variable for APR modeling was need for hospitalization (length of stay >24 h for those admitted to hospital or relapse for those discharged). A secondary outcome was the hospitalization decision of the clinical team. We used penalized maximum likelihood multiple logistic regression modeling to examine the adjusted association of each predictor variable with the outcome. Backward step-down variable selection techniques were used to yield reduced-form models.

Results

Data from 928 of 933 participants were used for prediction rule modeling, with median [interquartile range] age 8.8 [6.9, 11.2] years, 61% male, and 59% African-American race. Both full (penalized) and reduced-form models for each outcome calibrated well, with bootstrap-corrected c-indices of 0.74 and 0.73 for need for hospitalization and 0.81 in each case for hospitalization decision.

Conclusion

The APR predicts the need for hospitalization of children with acute asthma exacerbations using predictor variables available at the time of presentation to an emergency department.

SUBMITTER: Arnold DH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4355052 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar-Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and internal validation of a pediatric acute asthma prediction rule for hospitalization.

Arnold Donald H DH Gebretsadik Tebeb T Moons Karel G M KG Harrell Frank E FE Hartert Tina V TV

The journal of allergy and clinical immunology. In practice 20141125 2

<h4>Background</h4>Clinicians have difficulty predicting need for hospitalization of children with acute asthma exacerbations.<h4>Objective</h4>The objective of this study was to develop and internally validate a multivariable asthma prediction rule (APR) to inform hospitalization decision making in children aged 5-17 years with acute asthma exacerbations.<h4>Methods</h4>Between April 2008 and February 2013 we enrolled a prospective cohort of patients aged 5-17 years with asthma who presented to ...[more]

PMID: 25609324

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Project description:BackgroundQuality assessment in pediatric care has recently gained momentum. Although many of the approaches to indicator development are similar regardless of the population of interest, few nationwide sets of indicators specifically designed for assessment of primary care of children exist. We performed an empirical analysis of the validity of "Pediatric Asthma Hospitalization Rate" indicator under the assumption that lower admission rates are associated with better performance of primary health care.MethodsThe validity of "Pediatric Asthma Hospitalization Rate" indicator proposed by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality in the Italian context was investigated with a focus on selection of diagnostic codes, hospitalization type, and risk adjustment. Seasonality and regional variability of hospitalization rates for asthma were analyzed for Italian children aged 2-17 years discharged between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011 using the hospital discharge records database. Specific rates were computed for age classes: 2-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-17 years.ResultsIn the years 2009-2011 the number of pediatric hospitalizations for asthma was 14,389 (average annual rate: 0.52 per 1,000) with a large variability across regions. In children aged 2-4 years, the risk of hospitalization for asthma was 14 times higher than in adolescents, then it dropped to 4 in 5- to 9-year-olds and to 1.1 in 10- to 14-year-olds. The inclusion of diagnoses of bronchitis revealed that asthma and bronchitis are equally represented as causes of hospital admissions and have a similar seasonality in preschool children, while older age groups experience hospital admissions mainly in spring and fall, this pattern being consistent with a diagnosis of atopic asthma. Rates of day hospital admissions for asthma were up to 5 times higher than the national average in Liguria and some Southern regions, and close to zero in some Northern regions.ConclusionsThe patterns of hospitalization for pediatric asthma in Italy showed that at least two different indicators are needed to measure accurately the quality of care provided to children. The candidate indicators should also include day hospital admissions to better assess accessibility. Future evaluation by a structured clinical panel review at the national level might be helpful to refine indicator definitions and risk groupings, to determine appropriate application for such measures, and to make recommendations to policy makers.

Project description:Background and objectivesThe risk assessment for developing ESRD remains limited in patients with IgA nephropathy (IgAN). The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prediction rule for estimating the individual risk of ESRD in patients with IgAN.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsA total of 698 patients with IgAN diagnosed by renal biopsy at Kyushu University Hospital (derivation cohort) between 1982 and 2010 were retrospectively followed. The Oxford classification was used to evaluate the pathologic lesions. The risk factors for developing ESRD were evaluated using a Cox proportional hazard model with a stepwise backward elimination method. The prediction rule was verified using data from 702 patients diagnosed at Japanese Red Cross Fukuoka Hospital (validation cohort) between 1979 and 2002.ResultsIn the derivation cohort, 73 patients developed ESRD during the median 4.7-year follow-up. The final prediction model included proteinuria (hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.16 to 1.45, every 1 g/24 hours), estimated GFR (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.96, every 10 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)), mesangial proliferation (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.10 to 3.11), segmental sclerosis (HR, 3.21; 95% CI, 1.37 to 7.51), and interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy (T1: HR, 5.30; 95% CI, 2.63 to 10.7; T2: HR, 20.5; 95% CI, 9.05 to 46.5) as independent risk factors for developing ESRD. To create a prediction rule, the score for each variable was weighted by the regression coefficients calculated using the relevant Cox model. The incidence of ESRD increased linearly with increases in the total risk scores (P for trend <0.001). Furthermore, the prediction rule demonstrated good discrimination (c-statistic=0.89) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P=0.78) in the validation cohort.ConclusionsThis study developed and validated a new prediction rule using clinical measures and the Oxford classification for developing ESRD in patients with IgAN.

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Project description:BackgroundChildhood asthma is an important unmet need. To date, patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for children with asthma have used a combination of caregiver or proxy-reported and self-reported measures. No comprehensive measure is available to assess the severity and impact of daytime and nighttime asthma symptoms and rescue medication use for self-completion by children aged 6-11 years. This study aimed to develop a novel, interactive, electronic Pediatric Asthma Symptom Diary (ePASD) measuring self-reported key symptom severity and proximal impacts of asthma in young children with varying reading ability and disease severity, consistent with US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) PRO guidance and the International Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) good research practices.MethodsA targeted literature review and clinician interviews were undertaken to characterize symptoms and impacts experienced by children with mild-to-severe asthma. Concept elicitation interviews (CEIs) were conducted with 44 children and their caregivers (30 US; 14 UK). Following item and digital application development, the ePASD was assessed for relevance, understanding, and interpretability through cognitive debriefing interviews (CDIs) with 21 US children. Face validity/translatability assessments were also performed.ResultsKey measurement concepts included cough, wheeze, difficulty breathing, chest tightness/discomfort, nighttime awakening, and daytime activity limitations. Concept saturation was reached during CEIs for primary asthma-related daytime and nighttime symptoms and core impacts. Most CDI participants found the ePASD items clear, understandable, and comprehensive. Standardized training is anticipated to facilitate reliable child self-report.ConclusionThe ePASD, a novel PROM for children aged 6-11 years with asthma, uses an innovative multimedia approach and has been developed in accordance with FDA PRO guidance and ISPOR good research practices, directly capturing the child's self-reported asthma symptoms, impacts on daily activities and nighttime awakening, and rescue medication use.

Dataset Information

Development and internal validation of a pediatric acute asthma prediction rule for hospitalization.

Background

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Development and internal validation of a pediatric acute asthma prediction rule for hospitalization.

Similar Datasets

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