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Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought.

ABSTRACT: Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

SUBMITTER: Kelley CP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4371967 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The origins of agriculture, 10 000 years ago, led to profound changes in the biology of plants exploited as grain crops, through the process of domestication. This special case of evolution under cultivation led to domesticated cereals and pulses requiring humans for their dispersal, but the accompanying mechanisms causing higher productivity in these plants remain unknown. The classical view of crop domestication is narrow, focusing on reproductive and seed traits including the dispersal, dormancy and size of seeds, without considering whole-plant characteristics. However, the effects of initial domestication events can be inferred from consistent differences between traditional landraces and their wild progenitors.We studied how domestication increased the yields of Fertile Crescent cereals and pulses using a greenhouse experiment to compare landraces with wild progenitors. We grew eight crops: barley, einkorn and emmer wheat, oat, rye, chickpea, lentil and pea. In each case, comparison of multiple landraces with their wild progenitors enabled us to quantify the effects of domestication rather than subsequent crop diversification. To reveal the mechanisms underpinning domestication-linked yield increases, we measured traits beyond those classically associated with domestication, including the rate and duration of growth, reproductive allocation, plant size and also seed mass and number.Cereal and pulse crops had on average 50% higher yields than their wild progenitors, resulting from a 40% greater final plant size, 90% greater individual seed mass and 38% less chaff or pod material, although this varied between species. Cereal crops also had a higher seed number per spike compared with their wild ancestors. However, there were no differences in growth rate, total seed number, proportion of reproductive biomass or the duration of growth.The domestication of Fertile Crescent crops resulted in larger seed size leading to a larger plant size, and also a reduction in chaff, with no decrease in seed number per individual, which proved a powerful package of traits for increasing yield. We propose that the important steps in the domestication process should be reconsidered, and the domestication syndrome broadened to include a wider range of traits.

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Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought.

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