Dataset Information

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

ABSTRACT: Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

SUBMITTER: Lawrence D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4809582 | biostudies-literature | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

Lawrence Dan D Philip Graham G Hunt Hannah H Snape-Kennedy Lisa L Wilkinson T J TJ

PloS one 20160328 3

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maxim ...[more]

PMID: 27018998

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Project description:The origins of agriculture, 10 000 years ago, led to profound changes in the biology of plants exploited as grain crops, through the process of domestication. This special case of evolution under cultivation led to domesticated cereals and pulses requiring humans for their dispersal, but the accompanying mechanisms causing higher productivity in these plants remain unknown. The classical view of crop domestication is narrow, focusing on reproductive and seed traits including the dispersal, dormancy and size of seeds, without considering whole-plant characteristics. However, the effects of initial domestication events can be inferred from consistent differences between traditional landraces and their wild progenitors.We studied how domestication increased the yields of Fertile Crescent cereals and pulses using a greenhouse experiment to compare landraces with wild progenitors. We grew eight crops: barley, einkorn and emmer wheat, oat, rye, chickpea, lentil and pea. In each case, comparison of multiple landraces with their wild progenitors enabled us to quantify the effects of domestication rather than subsequent crop diversification. To reveal the mechanisms underpinning domestication-linked yield increases, we measured traits beyond those classically associated with domestication, including the rate and duration of growth, reproductive allocation, plant size and also seed mass and number.Cereal and pulse crops had on average 50% higher yields than their wild progenitors, resulting from a 40% greater final plant size, 90% greater individual seed mass and 38% less chaff or pod material, although this varied between species. Cereal crops also had a higher seed number per spike compared with their wild ancestors. However, there were no differences in growth rate, total seed number, proportion of reproductive biomass or the duration of growth.The domestication of Fertile Crescent crops resulted in larger seed size leading to a larger plant size, and also a reduction in chaff, with no decrease in seed number per individual, which proved a powerful package of traits for increasing yield. We propose that the important steps in the domestication process should be reconsidered, and the domestication syndrome broadened to include a wider range of traits.

Project description:Temperature is increasing in Arctic and sub-Arctic regions at a higher rate than anywhere else in the world. The frequency and nature of precipitation events are also predicted to change in the future. These changes in climate are expected, together with increasing human pressures, to have significant impacts on Arctic and sub-Arctic species and ecosystems. Due to the key role that reindeer play in those ecosystems, it is essential to understand how climate will affect the region's most important species. Our study assesses the role of climate on the dynamics of fourteen Eurasian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations, using for the first time data on reindeer abundance collected over a 70-year period, including both wild and semi-domesticated reindeer, and covering more than half of the species' total range. We analyzed trends in population dynamics, investigated synchrony among population growth rates, and assessed the effects of climate on population growth rates. Trends in the population dynamics were remarkably heterogeneous. Synchrony was apparent only among some populations and was not correlated with distance among population ranges. Proxies of climate variability mostly failed to explain population growth rates and synchrony. For both wild and semi-domesticated populations, local weather, biotic pressures, loss of habitat and human disturbances appear to have been more important drivers of reindeer population dynamics than climate. In semi-domesticated populations, management strategies may have masked the effects of climate. Conservation efforts should aim to mitigate human disturbances, which could exacerbate the potentially negative effects of climate change on reindeer populations in the future. Special protection and support should be granted to those semi-domesticated populations that suffered the most because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, in order to protect the livelihood of indigenous peoples that depend on the species, and the multi-faceted role that reindeer exert in Arctic ecosystems.

Project description:ObjectiveTo characterize hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemiology in countries of the Fertile Crescent region of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), namely Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.MethodsWe systematically reviewed and synthesized available records of HCV incidence and prevalence following PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were implemented using a DerSimonian-Laird random effects model with inverse weighting to estimate the country-specific HCV prevalence among the various at risk population groups.ResultsWe identified eight HCV incidence and 240 HCV prevalence measures in the Fertile Crescent. HCV sero-conversion risk among hemodialysis patients was 9.2% in Jordan and 40.3% in Iraq, and ranged between 0% and 3.5% among other populations in Iraq over different follow-up times. Our meta-analyses estimated HCV prevalence among the general population at 0.2% in Iraq (range: 0-7.2%; 95% CI: 0.1-0.3%), 0.3% in Jordan (range: 0-2.0%; 95% CI: 0.1-0.5%), 0.2% in Lebanon (range: 0-3.4%; 95% CI: 0.1-0.3%), 0.2% in Palestine (range: 0-9.0%; 95% CI: 0.2-0.3%), and 0.4% in Syria (range: 0.3-0.9%; 95% CI: 0.4-0.5%). Among populations at high risk, HCV prevalence was estimated at 19.5% in Iraq (range: 0-67.3%; 95% CI: 14.9-24.5%), 37.0% in Jordan (range: 21-59.5%; 95% CI: 29.3-45.0%), 14.5% in Lebanon (range: 0-52.8%; 95% CI: 5.6-26.5%), and 47.4% in Syria (range: 21.0-75.0%; 95% CI: 32.5-62.5%). Genotypes 4 and 1 appear to be the dominant circulating strains.ConclusionsHCV prevalence in the population at large appears to be below 1%, lower than that in other MENA sub-regions, and tending towards the lower end of the global range. However, there is evidence for ongoing HCV transmission within medical facilities and among people who inject drugs (PWID). Migration dynamics appear to have played a role in determining the circulating genotypes. HCV prevention efforts should be targeted, and focus on infection control in clinical settings and harm reduction among PWID.

Dataset Information

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

Publications

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

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