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Real-time state estimation in a flight simulator using fNIRS.

ABSTRACT: Working memory is a key executive function for flying an aircraft. This function is particularly critical when pilots have to recall series of air traffic control instructions. However, working memory limitations may jeopardize flight safety. Since the functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) method seems promising for assessing working memory load, our objective is to implement an on-line fNIRS-based inference system that integrates two complementary estimators. The first estimator is a real-time state estimation MACD-based algorithm dedicated to identifying the pilot's instantaneous mental state (not-on-task vs. on-task). It does not require a calibration process to perform its estimation. The second estimator is an on-line SVM-based classifier that is able to discriminate task difficulty (low working memory load vs. high working memory load). These two estimators were tested with 19 pilots who were placed in a realistic flight simulator and were asked to recall air traffic control instructions. We found that the estimated pilot's mental state matched significantly better than chance with the pilot's real state (62% global accuracy, 58% specificity, and 72% sensitivity). The second estimator, dedicated to assessing single trial working memory loads, led to 80% classification accuracy, 72% specificity, and 89% sensitivity. These two estimators establish reusable blocks for further fNIRS-based passive brain computer interface development.

SUBMITTER: Gateau T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4376943 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Abstract. Significance Advances in electronics have allowed the recent development of compact, high channel count time domain functional near-infrared spectroscopy (TD-fNIRS) systems. Temporal moment analysis has been proposed for increased brain sensitivity due to the depth selectivity of higher order temporal moments. We propose a general linear model (GLM) incorporating TD moment data and auxiliary physiological measurements, such as short separation channels, to improve the recovery of the HRF. Aims We compare the performance of previously reported multi-distance TD moment techniques to commonly used techniques for continuous wave (CW) fNIRS hemodynamic response function (HRF) recovery, namely block averaging and CW GLM. Additionally, we compare the multi-distance TD moment technique to TD moment GLM. Approach We augmented resting TD-fNIRS moment data (six subjects) with known synthetic HRFs. We then employed block averaging and GLM techniques with “short-separation regression” designed both for CW and TD to recover the HRFs. We calculated the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation of the recovered HRF to the ground truth. We compared the performance of equivalent CW and TD techniques with paired t-tests. Results We found that, on average, TD moment HRF recovery improves correlations by 98% and 48% for HbO and HbR respectively, over CW GLM. The improvement on the correlation for TD GLM over TD moment is 12% (HbO) and 27% (HbR). RMSE decreases 56% and 52% (HbO and HbR) for TD moment compared to CW GLM. We found no statistically significant improvement in the RMSE for TD GLM compared to TD moment. Conclusions Properly covariance-scaled TD moment techniques outperform their CW equivalents in both RMSE and correlation in the recovery of the synthetic HRFs. Furthermore, our proposed TD GLM based on moments outperforms regular TD moment analysis, while allowing the incorporation of auxiliary measurements of the confounding physiological signals from the scalp.

Project description:The effective reproduction number, Rt, is a key time-varying prognostic for the growth rate of any infectious disease epidemic. Significant changes in Rt can forewarn about new transmissions within a population or predict the efficacy of interventions. Inferring Rt reliably and in real-time from observed time-series of infected (demographic) data is an important problem in population dynamics. The renewal or branching process model is a popular solution that has been applied to Ebola and Zika virus disease outbreaks, among others, and is currently being used to investigate the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This model estimates Rt using a heuristically chosen piecewise function. While this facilitates real-time detection of statistically significant Rt changes, inference is highly sensitive to the function choice. Improperly chosen piecewise models might ignore meaningful changes or over-interpret noise-induced ones, yet produce visually reasonable estimates. No principled piecewise selection scheme exists. We develop a practical yet rigorous scheme using the accumulated prediction error (APE) metric from information theory, which deems the model capable of describing the observed data using the fewest bits as most justified. We derive exact posterior prediction distributions for infected population size and integrate these within an APE framework to obtain an exact and reliable method for identifying the piecewise function best supported by available epidemic data. We find that this choice optimises short-term prediction accuracy and can rapidly detect salient fluctuations in Rt, and hence the infected population growth rate, in real-time over the course of an unfolding epidemic. Moreover, we emphasise the need for formal selection by exposing how common heuristic choices, which seem sensible, can be misleading. Our APE-based method is easily computed and broadly applicable to statistically similar models found in phylogenetics and macroevolution, for example. Our results explore the relationships among estimate precision, forecast reliability and model complexity.

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Real-time state estimation in a flight simulator using fNIRS.

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