Dataset Information

Re-constructing historical Adelie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

ABSTRACT: Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subject to unrecognised bias and uncertainty because of variable attendance of birds at breeding colonies and variable timing of past population surveys. We retrospectively accounted for detection bias in historical abundance estimates of the colonial, land-breeding Adélie penguin through an analysis of 222 historical abundance estimates from 81 breeding sites in east Antarctica. The published abundance estimates were de-constructed to retrieve the raw count data and then re-constructed by applying contemporary adjustment factors obtained from remotely operating time-lapse cameras. The re-construction process incorporated spatial and temporal variation in phenology and attendance by using data from cameras deployed at multiple sites over multiple years and propagating this uncertainty through to the final revised abundance estimates. Our re-constructed abundance estimates were consistently higher and more uncertain than published estimates. The re-constructed estimates alter the conclusions reached for some sites in east Antarctica in recent assessments of long-term Adélie penguin population change. Our approach is applicable to abundance data for a wide range of colonial, land-breeding marine species including other penguin species, flying seabirds and marine mammals.

SUBMITTER: Southwell C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4409151 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

Southwell Colin C Emmerson Louise L Newbery Kym K McKinlay John J Kerry Knowles K Woehler Eric E Ensor Paul P

PloS one 20150424 4

Seabirds and other land-breeding marine predators are considered to be useful and practical indicators of the state of marine ecosystems because of their dependence on marine prey and the accessibility of their populations at breeding colonies. Historical counts of breeding populations of these higher-order marine predators are one of few data sources available for inferring past change in marine ecosystems. However, historical abundance estimates derived from these population counts may be subj ...[more]

PMID: 25909636

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Project description:The evolutionary trade-off between tissue growth and mature function restricts the post natal development of polar birds. The present study uses an original integrative approach as it includes gene expression, plus biochemical and physiological analysis to investigate how Adélie penguin chicks achieve a rapid growth despite the energetic constraints linked to the cold and the very short breeding season in Antarctica. In pectoralis muscle, the main thermogenic tissue in birds, our data show that the transition from ectothermy to endothermy on Day 15 post- hatching is associated with substantial and coordinated changes in the transcription of key genes. While the early activation of genes controlling cell growth and differentiation (avGHR, avIGF-1R, T3Rβ) is rapidly down-regulated after hatching, the global increase in the relative expression of genes involved in thermoregulation (avUCP, avANT, avLPL) and transcriptional regulation (avPGC1α, avT3Rβ) underlie the muscular acquisition of oxidative metabolism. Adélie chicks only become real endotherms at 15 days of age with the development of an oxidative muscle phenotype and the ability to shiver efficiently. The persistent muscular expression of IGF-1 throughout growth probably acts as a local mediator to adjust muscle size and its oxidative capacity to anticipate the new physiological demands of future Dives in cold water. The up-regulation of T3Rβ mRNA levels suggests that circulating T3 may play an important role in the late maturation of skeletal muscle by reinforcing, at least in part, the paracrine action of IGF-1. From day 30, the metabolic shift from mixed substrate to lipid metabolism, with the markedly increased mRNA levels of muscle avLPL, avANT and avUCP, suggests the late development of a fatty acid-enhanced muscle non-shivering thermogenesis mechanism. This molecular control is the key to this finely-tuned strategy by which the Adélie penguin chick successfully heads for the sea on schedule.

Project description:Major, long-term environmental changes are projected in the Southern Ocean and these are likely to have impacts for marine predators such as the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae). Decadal monitoring studies have provided insight into the short-term environmental sensitivities of Adélie penguin populations, particularly to sea ice changes. However, given the long-term nature of projected climate change, it is also prudent to consider the responses of populations to environmental change over longer time scales. We investigated the population trajectory of Adélie penguins during the last glacial-interglacial transition to determine how the species was affected by climate warming over millennia. We focussed our study on East Antarctica, which is home to 30 % of the global population of Adélie penguins.Using mitochondrial DNA from extant colonies, we reconstructed the population trend of Adélie penguins in East Antarctica over the past 22,000 years using an extended Bayesian skyline plot method. To determine the relationship of East Antarctic Adélie penguins with populations elsewhere in Antarctica we constructed a phylogeny using mitochondrial DNA sequences.We found that the Adélie penguin population expanded 135-fold from approximately 14,000 years ago. The population growth was coincident with deglaciation in East Antarctica and, therefore, an increase in ice-free ground suitable for Adélie penguin nesting. Our phylogenetic analysis indicated that East Antarctic Adélie penguins share a common ancestor with Adélie penguins from the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Arc, with an estimated age of 29,000 years ago, in the midst of the last glacial period. This finding suggests that extant colonies in East Antarctica, the Scotia Arc and the Antarctic Peninsula were founded from a single glacial refuge.While changes in sea ice conditions are a critical driver of Adélie penguin population success over decadal and yearly timescales, deglaciation appears to have been the key driver of population change over millennia. This suggests that environmental drivers of population trends over thousands of years may differ to drivers over years or decades, highlighting the need to consider millennial-scale trends alongside contemporary data for the forecasting of species' abundance and distribution changes under future climate change scenarios.

Dataset Information

Re-constructing historical Adelie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

Publications

Re-constructing historical Adélie penguin abundance estimates by retrospectively accounting for detection bias.

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