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Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

ABSTRACT: Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982-2015) in the Antarctic, covering >95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide "year effects" strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.Adélie penguins are a key Antarctic indicator species, but data patchiness has challenged efforts to link population dynamics to key drivers. Che-Castaldo et al. resolve this issue using a pan-Antarctic Bayesian model to infer missing data, and show that spatial aggregation leads to more robust inference regarding dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Che-Castaldo C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5635117 | biostudies-literature | 2017 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

Che-Castaldo Christian C Jenouvrier Stephanie S Youngflesh Casey C Shoemaker Kevin T KT Humphries Grant G McDowall Philip P Landrum Laura L Holland Marika M MM Li Yun Y Ji Rubao R Lynch Heather J HJ

Nature communications 20171010 1

Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abu ...[more]

PMID: 29018199

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Project description:BackgroundThe Antarctic Penguin Biogeography Project is an effort to collate all known information about the distribution and abundance of Antarctic penguins through time and to make such data available to the scientific and management community. The core data product involves a series of structured tables with information on known breeding sites and surveys conducted at those sites from the earliest days of Antarctic exploration through to the present. This database, which is continuously updated as new information becomes available, provides a unified and comprehensive repository of information on Antarctic penguin biogeography that contributes to a growing suite of applications of value to the Antarctic community. One such application is the Mapping Application for Antarctic Penguins and Projected Dynamics (MAPPPD; www.penguinmap.com), a browser-based search and visualisation tool designed primarily for policy-makers and other non-specialists, and mapppdr, an R package developed to assist the Antarctic science community. This dataset contains records of Pygoscelisadeliae, Pygoscelisantarctica, Pygoscelispapua, Eudypteschrysolophus, Aptenodytespatagonicus and Aptenodytesforsteri annual nest, adult and/or chick counts conducted during field expeditions or collected using remote sensing imagery, that were subsequently gathered by the Antarctic Penguin Biogeography Project from published and unpublished sources, at all known Antarctic penguin breeding colonies south of 60 S from 01-11-1892 to 12-02-2022-02-12.New informationThis dataset collates together all publicly available breeding colony abundance data (1979-2022) for Antarctic penguins in a single database with standardised notation and format. Colony locations have been adjusted as necessary using satellite imagery and each colony has been assigned a unique four-digit alphanumeric code to avoid confusion. These data include information previously published in a variety of print and online formats as well as additional survey data not previously published. Previously unpublished data derive primarily from recent surveys collected under the auspices of the Antarctic Site Inventory, Penguin Watch or by the Lynch Lab at Stony Brook University.

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Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adelie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

Publications

Pan-Antarctic analysis aggregating spatial estimates of Adélie penguin abundance reveals robust dynamics despite stochastic noise.

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