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A joint model for multistate disease processes and random informative observation times, with applications to electronic medical records data.

ABSTRACT: Multistate models are used to characterize individuals' natural histories through diseases with discrete states. Observational data resources based on electronic medical records pose new opportunities for studying such diseases. However, these data consist of observations of the process at discrete sampling times, which may either be pre-scheduled and non-informative, or symptom-driven and informative about an individual's underlying disease status. We have developed a novel joint observation and disease transition model for this setting. The disease process is modeled according to a latent continuous-time Markov chain; and the observation process, according to a Markov-modulated Poisson process with observation rates that depend on the individual's underlying disease status. The disease process is observed at a combination of informative and non-informative sampling times, with possible misclassification error. We demonstrate that the model is computationally tractable and devise an expectation-maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. Using simulated data, we show how estimates from our joint observation and disease transition model lead to less biased and more precise estimates of the disease rate parameters. We apply the model to a study of secondary breast cancer events, utilizing mammography and biopsy records from a sample of women with a history of primary breast cancer.

SUBMITTER: Lange JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4415156 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A joint model for multistate disease processes and random informative observation times, with applications to electronic medical records data.

Lange Jane M JM Hubbard Rebecca A RA Inoue Lurdes Y T LYT Minin Vladimir N VN

Biometrics 20141015 1

Multistate models are used to characterize individuals' natural histories through diseases with discrete states. Observational data resources based on electronic medical records pose new opportunities for studying such diseases. However, these data consist of observations of the process at discrete sampling times, which may either be pre-scheduled and non-informative, or symptom-driven and informative about an individual's underlying disease status. We have developed a novel joint observation an ...[more]

PMID: 25319319

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Project description:BackgroundIdentifying implausible clinical observations (e.g., laboratory test and vital sign values) in Electronic Health Record (EHR) data using rule-based procedures is challenging. Anomaly/outlier detection methods can be applied as an alternative algorithmic approach to flagging such implausible values in EHRs.MethodsThe primary objectives of this research were to develop and test an unsupervised clustering-based anomaly/outlier detection approach for detecting implausible observations in EHR data as an alternative algorithmic solution to the existing procedures. Our approach is built upon two underlying hypotheses that, (i) when there are large number of observations, implausible records should be sparse, and therefore (ii) if these data are clustered properly, clusters with sparse populations should represent implausible observations. To test these hypotheses, we applied an unsupervised clustering algorithm to EHR observation data on 50 laboratory tests from Partners HealthCare. We tested different specifications of the clustering approach and computed confusion matrix indices against a set of silver-standard plausibility thresholds. We compared the results from the proposed approach with conventional anomaly detection (CAD) approaches, including standard deviation and Mahalanobis distance.ResultsWe found that the clustering approach produced results with exceptional specificity and high sensitivity. Compared with the conventional anomaly detection approaches, our proposed clustering approach resulted in significantly smaller number of false positive cases.ConclusionOur contributions include (i) a clustering approach for identifying implausible EHR observations, (ii) evidence that implausible observations are sparse in EHR laboratory test results, (iii) a parallel implementation of the clustering approach on i2b2 star schema, and (3) a set of silver-standard plausibility thresholds for 50 laboratory tests that can be used in other studies for validation. The proposed algorithmic solution can augment human decisions to improve data quality. Therefore, a workflow is needed to complement the algorithm's job and initiate necessary actions that need to be taken in order to improve the quality of data.

Dataset Information

A joint model for multistate disease processes and random informative observation times, with applications to electronic medical records data.

Publications

A joint model for multistate disease processes and random informative observation times, with applications to electronic medical records data.

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