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How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences.

ABSTRACT: Various forms of preventive and prophylactic antimicrobial therapies have been proposed to combat HIV (e.g. pre-exposure prophylaxis), tuberculosis (e.g. isoniazid preventive therapy) and malaria (e.g. intermittent preventive treatment). However, the potential population-level effects of preventative therapy (PT) on the prevalence of drug resistance are not well understood. PT can directly affect the rate at which resistance is acquired among those receiving PT. It can also indirectly affect resistance by altering the rate at which resistance is acquired through treatment for active disease and by modifying the level of competition between transmission of drug-resistant and drug-sensitive pathogens. We propose a general mathematical model to explore the ways in which PT can affect the long-term prevalence of drug resistance. Depending on the relative contributions of these three mechanisms, we find that increasing the level of coverage of PT may result in increases, decreases or non-monotonic changes in the overall prevalence of drug resistance. These results demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between PT and drug resistance in the population. Care should be taken when predicting population-level changes in drug resistance from small pilot studies of PT or estimates based solely on its direct effects.

SUBMITTER: Kunkel A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4424438 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences.

Kunkel Amber A Colijn Caroline C Lipsitch Marc M Cohen Ted T

Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences 20150601 1670

Various forms of preventive and prophylactic antimicrobial therapies have been proposed to combat HIV (e.g. pre-exposure prophylaxis), tuberculosis (e.g. isoniazid preventive therapy) and malaria (e.g. intermittent preventive treatment). However, the potential population-level effects of preventative therapy (PT) on the prevalence of drug resistance are not well understood. PT can directly affect the rate at which resistance is acquired among those receiving PT. It can also indirectly affect res ...[more]

PMID: 25918446

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Project description:ObjectiveDescribe trends in antiretroviral treatments and drug resistance mutations among Swedish HIV-patients over time 1997-2011.MethodsTreatment histories, viral sequences, and demographic and clinical data were retrieved from the national database InfCareHIV. All ART-experienced patients were included (N?=?6537), while resistance tests were restricted to those obtained ?90 days after ART start. This cohort is fully representative for Sweden since the database covers virtually all diagnosed HIV-patients since the start of the epidemic. Patients were grouped according to the year of first ART, and treatments and mutations were analyzed by calendar year.ResultsThe prevalence of major drug resistance mutations decreased dramatically over time, most rapidly between 2003 and 2007. Since then there has been a continued slow decrease for NRTI- and PI-associated mutations with an overall prevalence among all ART-experienced patients at 1.1% (NRTI) and 0.3% (PI) in 2011. NNRTI resistance reached the lowest level in 2007-2009 (0.6%), but is now increasing (0.9% in 2011). Patients with first ART exposure before 2001 are still highly overrepresented among those with PI and, to a lesser extent, NRTI resistance. In contrast, almost half of the patients with NNRTI mutations in 2011 initiated their first ART after 2007.ConclusionsTremendous improvements in ART options and knowledge have resulted in rapidly declining levels of resistance, and most of the current NRTI and PI mutations are found among patients with a history of suboptimal treatments. However, NNRTI resistance is increasing and is primarily found in patients infected in low- and middle-income countries who initiated ART in recent years. It is plausible that these patients were infected with resistant strains and it is therefore suggested that resource-rich countries like Sweden should test for resistance in minor quasispecies or use PI-based first-line regimens in patients who are at increased risk of carrying resistant virus.

Dataset Information

How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences.

Publications

How could preventive therapy affect the prevalence of drug resistance? Causes and consequences.

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