Dataset Information

Long-term outcomes of secondary atrial fibrillation in the community: the Framingham Heart Study.

ABSTRACT: Guidelines have proposed that atrial fibrillation (AF) can occur as an isolated event, particularly when precipitated by a secondary, or reversible, condition. However, knowledge of long-term AF outcomes after diagnosis during a secondary precipitant is limited.In 1409 Framingham Heart Study participants with new-onset AF, we examined associations between first-detected AF episodes occurring with and without a secondary precipitant and both long-term AF recurrence and morbidity. We selected secondary precipitants based on guidelines (surgery, infection, acute myocardial infarction, thyrotoxicosis, acute alcohol consumption, acute pericardial disease, pulmonary embolism, or other acute pulmonary disease). Among 439 patients (31%) with AF diagnosed during a secondary precipitant, cardiothoracic surgery (n=131 [30%]), infection (n=102 [23%]), noncardiothoracic surgery (n=87 [20%]), and acute myocardial infarction (n=78 [18%]) were most common. AF recurred in 544 of 846 eligible individuals without permanent AF (5-, 10-, and 15-year recurrences of 42%, 56%, and 62% with versus 59%, 69%, and 71% without secondary precipitants; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 0.65 [95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.78]). Stroke risk (n=209/1262 at risk; hazard ratio, 1.13 [95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.57]) and mortality (n=1098/1409 at risk; hazard ratio, 1.00 [95% confidence interval, 0.87-1.15]) were similar between those with and without secondary precipitants, although heart failure risk was reduced (n=294/1107 at risk; hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% confidence interval, 0.56-0.97]).AF recurs in most individuals, including those diagnosed with secondary precipitants. Long-term AF-related stroke and mortality risks were similar between individuals with and without secondary AF precipitants. Future studies may determine whether increased arrhythmia surveillance or adherence to general AF management principles in patients with reversible AF precipitants will reduce morbidity.

SUBMITTER: Lubitz SA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4430386 | biostudies-literature | 2015 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Long-term outcomes of secondary atrial fibrillation in the community: the Framingham Heart Study.

Lubitz Steven A SA Yin Xiaoyan X Rienstra Michiel M Schnabel Renate B RB Walkey Allan J AJ Magnani Jared W JW Rahman Faisal F McManus David D DD Tadros Thomas M TM Levy Daniel D Vasan Ramachandran S RS Larson Martin G MG Ellinor Patrick T PT Benjamin Emelia J EJ

Circulation 20150313 19

<h4>Background</h4>Guidelines have proposed that atrial fibrillation (AF) can occur as an isolated event, particularly when precipitated by a secondary, or reversible, condition. However, knowledge of long-term AF outcomes after diagnosis during a secondary precipitant is limited.<h4>Methods and results</h4>In 1409 Framingham Heart Study participants with new-onset AF, we examined associations between first-detected AF episodes occurring with and without a secondary precipitant and both long-ter ...[more]

PMID: 25769640

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Project description:BackgroundAtrial fibrillation contributes to substantial increases in morbidity and mortality. We aimed to develop a risk score to predict individuals' absolute risk of developing the condition, and to provide a framework for researchers to assess new risk markers.MethodsWe assessed 4764 participants in the Framingham Heart Study from 8044 examinations (55% women, 45-95 years of age) undertaken between June, 1968, and September, 1987. Thereafter, participants were monitored for the first event of atrial fibrillation for a maximum of 10 years. Multivariable Cox regression identified clinical risk factors associated with development of atrial fibrillation in 10 years. Secondary analyses incorporated routine echocardiographic measurements (5152 participants, 7156 examinations) to reclassify the risk of atrial fibrillation and to assess whether these measurements improved risk prediction.Findings457 (10%) of the 4764 participants developed atrial fibrillation. Age, sex, body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, PR interval, clinically significant cardiac murmur, and heart failure were associated with atrial fibrillation and incorporated in a risk score (p<0.05, except body-mass index p=0.08), clinical model C statistic 0.78 (95% CI 0.76-0.80). Risk of atrial fibrillation in 10 years varied with age: more than 15% risk was recorded in 53 (1%) participants younger than 65 years, compared with 783 (27%) older than 65 years. Additional incorporation of echocardiographic measurements to enhance the risk prediction model only slightly improved the C statistic from 0.78 (95% CI 0.75-0.80) to 0.79 (0.77-0.82), p=0.005. Echocardiographic measurements did not improve risk reclassification (p=0.18).InterpretationFrom clinical factors readily accessible in primary care, our risk score could help to identify risk of atrial fibrillation for individuals in the community, assess technologies or markers for improvement of risk prediction, and target high-risk individuals for preventive measures.

Project description:BackgroundThere have been conflicting reported associations between dietary factors and incident atrial fibrillation (AF).ObjectiveWe evaluated associations between consumption of alcohol, caffeine, fiber, and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and incident AF in the Framingham Heart Study.DesignParticipants without AF (n = 4526; 9640 examinations; mean age: 62 y; 56% women) from the original and offspring cohorts completed food-frequency questionnaires and were followed prospectively for 4 y. We examined the associations between dietary exposures and AF with Cox proportional hazards regression.ResultsA total of 296 individuals developed AF (177 men, 119 women). In multivariable analyses, there were no significant associations between examined dietary exposures and AF risk. Hazard ratios (HRs) for increasing quartiles of dietary factors were as follows: for alcohol, 0.73 (95% CI: 0.5, 1.05), 0.85 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.18), and 1.12 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.51) (P for trend = 0.48); for caffeine, 0.84 (95% CI: 0.62, 1.15), 0.87 (95% CI: 0.64, 1.2), and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.7, 1.39) (P for trend = 0.84); for total fiber, 0.86 (95% CI: 0.61, 1.2), 0.64 (95% CI: 0.44, 0.92), and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.54, 1.2) (P for trend = 0.16); and for n-3 (omega-3) PUFAs, 1.11 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.54), 0.92 (95% CI: 0.65, 1.29), and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.85, 1.64) (P for trend = 0.57; quartile 1 was the reference group). In exploratory analyses, consumption of >4 servings of dark fish/wk (5 cases and 21 individuals at risk) was significantly associated with AF risk compared with the consumption of <1 serving of dark fish/wk (HR: 6.53; 95% CI: 2.65, 16.06; P < 0.0001).ConclusionsConsumption of alcohol, caffeine, fiber, and fish-derived PUFAs was not significantly associated with AF risk. The observed adverse association between the consumption of dark fish and AF merits further investigation. Our findings suggest that the dietary exposures examined convey limited attributable risk of AF in the general population.

Project description:OBJECTIVE:To assess temporal trends in the association between newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation and death. DESIGN:Community based cohort study. SETTING:Framingham Heart Study cohort, in 1972-85, 1986-2000, and 2001-15 (periods 1-3, respectively), in Framingham, MA, USA. PARTICIPANTS:Participants with no atrial fibrillation, aged 45-95 in each time period, and identified with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (or atrial flutter) during each time period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:The main outcome was all cause mortality. Hazard ratios for the association between time varying atrial fibrillation and all cause mortality were calculated with adjustment for time varying confounding factors. The difference in restricted mean survival times, adjusted for confounders, between participants with atrial fibrillation and matched referents at 10 years after a diagnosis of atrial fibrillation was estimated. Meta-regression was used to test for linear trends in hazard ratios and restricted mean survival times over the different time periods. RESULTS:5671 participants were selected in time period 1, 6177 in period 2, and 6174 in period 3. Adjusted hazard ratios for all cause mortality between participants with and without atrial fibrillation were 1.9 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 2.2) in time period 1, 1.4 (1.3 to 1.6) in period 2, and 1.7 (1.5 to 2.0) in period 3 (Ptrend=0.70). Ten years after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation, the adjusted difference in restricted mean survival times between participants with atrial fibrillation and matched referents decreased by 31%, from -2.9 years (95% confidence interval -3.2 to -2.5) in period 1, to -2.1 years (-2.4 to -1.8) in period 2, to -2.0 years (-2.3 to -1.7) in period 3 (Ptrend=0.03). CONCLUSIONS:No evidence of a temporal trend in hazard ratios for the association between atrial fibrillation and all cause mortality was found. The mean number of life years lost to atrial fibrillation at 10 years had improved significantly, but a two year gap compared with individuals without atrial fibrillation still remained.

Project description:BackgroundArterial stiffness increases with age and is associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes on short-term follow-up (typically <10 years). Data regarding associations of arterial stiffness with health outcomes on longer-term follow-up are lacking.MethodsWe evaluated 7283 Framingham Study participants (mean age 50 years, 53% women) who underwent assessment of carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (a marker of arterial stiffness) via applanation tonometry at one or more routine examinations. We used time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression models to relate carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity to the incidence of health outcomes (updating carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity and all covariates at serial examinations).ResultsOn long-term follow-up (median 15 years; minimum-maximum, 0-20), participants developed cardiometabolic disease (hypertension [1255 events]; diabetes [381 events]), chronic kidney disease (529 events), dementia (235 events), cardiovascular disease (684 events) and its components (coronary heart disease [314 events], heart failure [191 events], transient ischemic attacks or stroke [250 events]), and death (1086 events). In multivariable-adjusted models, each SD increment in carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity was associated with increased risk of hypertension (hazard ratio [HR], 1.32 [95% CI, 1.21-1.44]), diabetes (HR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.11-1.58]), chronic kidney disease (1.19 [95% CI, 1.05-1.34]), dementia (HR 1.27 [95% CI, 1.06-1.53]), cardiovascular disease (HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.06-1.36]) and its components (coronary heart disease, HR 1.37 [95% CI, 1.13-1.65]; transient ischemic attack/stroke, HR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.00-1.53]), and death (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.17-1.43]). The association with heart failure was borderline nonsignificant (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 0.98-1.51], P=0.08).ConclusionsOur prospective observations of a large community-based sample establish the long-term prognostic importance of arterial stiffness for multiple health outcomes.

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Long-term outcomes of secondary atrial fibrillation in the community: the Framingham Heart Study.

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Long-term outcomes of secondary atrial fibrillation in the community: the Framingham Heart Study.

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