Dataset Information

Modeling occupancy of hosts by mistletoe seeds after accounting for imperfect detectability.

ABSTRACT: The detection of an organism in a given site is widely used as a state variable in many metapopulation and epidemiological studies. However, failure to detect the species does not necessarily mean that it is absent. Assessing detectability is important for occupancy (presence-absence) surveys; and identifying the factors reducing detectability may help improve survey precision and efficiency. A method was used to estimate the occupancy status of host trees colonized by mistletoe seeds of Psittacanthus plagiophyllus as a function of host covariates: host size and presence of mistletoe infections on the same or on the nearest neighboring host (the cashew tree Anacardium occidentale). The technique also evaluated the effect of taking detectability into account for estimating host occupancy by mistletoe seeds. Individual host trees were surveyed for presence of mistletoe seeds with the aid of two or three observers to estimate detectability and occupancy. Detectability was, on average, 17% higher in focal-host trees with infected neighbors, while decreased about 23 to 50% from smallest to largest hosts. The presence of mistletoe plants in the sample tree had negligible effect on detectability. Failure to detect hosts as occupied decreased occupancy by 2.5% on average, with maximum of 10% for large and isolated hosts. The method presented in this study has potential for use with metapopulation studies of mistletoes, especially those focusing on the seed stage, but also as improvement of accuracy in occupancy models estimates often used for metapopulation dynamics of tree-dwelling plants in general.

SUBMITTER: Fadini RF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4431672 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Modeling occupancy of hosts by mistletoe seeds after accounting for imperfect detectability.

Fadini Rodrigo F RF Cintra Renato R

PloS one 20150514 5

The detection of an organism in a given site is widely used as a state variable in many metapopulation and epidemiological studies. However, failure to detect the species does not necessarily mean that it is absent. Assessing detectability is important for occupancy (presence-absence) surveys; and identifying the factors reducing detectability may help improve survey precision and efficiency. A method was used to estimate the occupancy status of host trees colonized by mistletoe seeds of Psittac ...[more]

PMID: 25973754

Similar Datasets

Project description:Monitoring programs designed to assess changes in population size over time need to account for imperfect detection and provide estimates of precision around annual abundance estimates. Especially for species dependent on conservation management, robust monitoring is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of management. Many bird species of temperate grasslands depend on specific conservation management to maintain suitable breeding habitat. One such species is the Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola), which breeds in open fen mires in Central Europe. Aquatic Warbler populations have so far been assessed using a complete survey that aims to enumerate all singing males over a large area. Because this approach provides no estimate of precision and does not account for observation error, detecting moderate population changes is challenging. From 2011 to 2013 we trialled a new line transect sampling monitoring design in the Biebrza valley, Poland, to estimate abundance of singing male Aquatic Warblers. We surveyed Aquatic Warblers repeatedly along 50 randomly placed 1-km transects, and used binomial mixture models to estimate abundances per transect. The repeated line transect sampling required 150 observer days, and thus less effort than the traditional 'full count' approach (175 observer days). Aquatic Warbler abundance was highest at intermediate water levels, and detection probability varied between years and was influenced by vegetation height. A power analysis indicated that our line transect sampling design had a power of 68% to detect a 20% population change over 10 years, whereas raw count data had a 9% power to detect the same trend. Thus, by accounting for imperfect detection we increased the power to detect population changes. We recommend to adopt the repeated line transect sampling approach for monitoring Aquatic Warblers in Poland and in other important breeding areas to monitor changes in population size and the effects of habitat management.

Project description:If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data required are a second estimate of group size.

Project description:Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the vectors of dengue, the most important arboviral disease of humans. To date, Aedes ecology studies have assumed that the vectors are truly absent from sites where they are not detected; since no perfect detection method exists, this assumption is questionable. Imperfect detection may bias estimates of key vector surveillance/control parameters, including site-occupancy (infestation) rates and control intervention effects. We used a modeling approach that explicitly accounts for imperfect detection and a 38-month, 55-site detection/non-detection dataset to quantify the effects of municipality/state control interventions on Aedes site-occupancy dynamics, considering meteorological and dwelling-level covariates. Ae. aegypti site-occupancy estimates (mean 0.91; range 0.79-0.97) were much higher than reported by routine surveillance based on 'rapid larval surveys' (0.03; 0.02-0.11) and moderately higher than directly ascertained with oviposition traps (0.68; 0.50-0.91). Regular control campaigns based on breeding-site elimination had no measurable effects on the probabilities of dwelling infestation by dengue vectors. Site-occupancy fluctuated seasonally, mainly due to the negative effects of high maximum (Ae. aegypti) and minimum (Ae. albopictus) summer temperatures (June-September). Rainfall and dwelling-level covariates were poor predictors of occupancy. The marked contrast between our estimates of adult vector presence and the results from 'rapid larval surveys' suggests, together with the lack of effect of local control campaigns on infestation, that many Aedes breeding sites were overlooked by vector control agents in our study setting. Better sampling strategies are urgently needed, particularly for the reliable assessment of infestation rates in the context of control program management. The approach we present here, combining oviposition traps and site-occupancy models, could greatly contribute to that crucial aim.

Project description:BackgroundUnderstanding the drivers of habitat selection by insect disease vectors is instrumental to the design and operation of rational control-surveillance systems. One pervasive yet often overlooked drawback of vector studies is that detection failures result in some sites being misclassified as uninfested; naïve infestation indices are therefore biased, and this can confound our view of vector habitat preferences. Here, we present an initial attempt at applying methods that explicitly account for imperfect detection to investigate the ecology of Chagas disease vectors in man-made environments.MethodologyWe combined triplicate-sampling of individual ecotopes (n = 203) and site-occupancy models (SOMs) to test a suite of pre-specified hypotheses about habitat selection by Triatoma brasiliensis. SOM results were compared with those of standard generalized linear models (GLMs) that assume perfect detection even with single bug-searches.Principal findingsTriatoma brasiliensis was strongly associated with key hosts (native rodents, goats/sheep and, to a lesser extent, fowl) in peridomestic environments; ecotope structure had, in comparison, small to negligible effects, although wooden ecotopes were slightly preferred. We found evidence of dwelling-level aggregation of infestation foci; when there was one such focus, same-dwelling ecotopes, whether houses or peridomestic structures, were more likely to become infested too. GLMs yielded negatively-biased covariate effect estimates and standard errors; both were, on average, about four times smaller than those derived from SOMs.Conclusions/significanceOur results confirm substantial population-level ecological heterogeneity in T. brasiliensis. They also suggest that, at least in some sites, control of this species may benefit from peridomestic rodent control and changes in goat/sheep husbandry practices. Finally, our comparative analyses highlight the importance of accounting for the various sources of uncertainty inherent to vector studies, including imperfect detection. We anticipate that future research on infectious disease ecology will increasingly rely on approaches akin to those described here.

Project description:Understanding where species occur and how difficult they are to detect during surveys is crucial for designing and evaluating monitoring programs, and has broader applications for conservation planning and management. In this study, we modelled occupancy and the effectiveness of six sampling methods at detecting vertebrates across the Top End of northern Australia. We fitted occupancy-detection models to 136 species (83 birds, 33 reptiles, 20 mammals) of 242 recorded during surveys of 333 sites in eight conservation reserves between 2011 and 2016. For modelled species, mean occupancy was highly variable: birds and reptiles ranged from 0.01-0.81 and 0.01-0.49, respectively, whereas mammal occupancy was lower, ranging from 0.02-0.30. Of the 11 environmental covariates considered as potential predictors of occupancy, topographic ruggedness, elevation, maximum temperature, and fire frequency were retained more readily in the top models. Using these models, we predicted species occupancy across the Top End of northern Australia (293,017 km2) and generated species richness maps for each species group. For mammals and reptiles, high richness was associated with rugged terrain, while bird richness was highest in coastal lowland woodlands. On average, detectability of diurnal birds was higher per day of surveys (0.33 ± 0.09) compared with nocturnal birds per night of spotlighting (0.13 ± 0.06). Detectability of reptiles was similar per day/night of pit trapping (0.30 ± 0.09) as per night of spotlighting (0.29 ± 0.11). On average, mammals were highly detectable using motion-sensor cameras for a week (0.36 ± 0.06), with exception of smaller-bodied species. One night of Elliott trapping (0.20 ± 0.06) and spotlighting (0.19 ± 0.06) was more effective at detecting mammals than cage (0.08 ± 0.03) and pit trapping (0.05 ± 0.04). Our estimates of species occupancy and detectability will help inform decisions about how best to redesign a long-running vertebrate monitoring program in the Top End of northern Australia.

Dataset Information

Modeling occupancy of hosts by mistletoe seeds after accounting for imperfect detectability.

Publications

Modeling occupancy of hosts by mistletoe seeds after accounting for imperfect detectability.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure