Dataset Information

Accounting for imperfect detection in ecology: a quantitative review.

ABSTRACT: Detection in studies of species abundance and distribution is often imperfect. Assuming perfect detection introduces bias into estimation that can weaken inference upon which understanding and policy are based. Despite availability of numerous methods designed to address this assumption, many refereed papers in ecology fail to account for non-detection error. We conducted a quantitative literature review of 537 ecological articles to measure the degree to which studies of different taxa, at various scales, and over time have accounted for imperfect detection. Overall, just 23% of articles accounted for imperfect detection. The probability that an article incorporated imperfect detection increased with time and varied among taxa studied; studies of vertebrates were more likely to incorporate imperfect detection. Among articles that reported detection probability, 70% contained per-survey estimates of detection that were less than 0.5. For articles in which constancy of detection was tested, 86% reported significant variation. We hope that our findings prompt more ecologists to consider carefully the detection process when designing studies and analyzing results, especially for sub-disciplines where incorporation of imperfect detection in study design and analysis so far has been lacking.

SUBMITTER: Kellner KF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4214722 | biostudies-literature | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Accounting for imperfect detection in ecology: a quantitative review.

Kellner Kenneth F KF Swihart Robert K RK

PloS one 20141030 10

Detection in studies of species abundance and distribution is often imperfect. Assuming perfect detection introduces bias into estimation that can weaken inference upon which understanding and policy are based. Despite availability of numerous methods designed to address this assumption, many refereed papers in ecology fail to account for non-detection error. We conducted a quantitative literature review of 537 ecological articles to measure the degree to which studies of different taxa, at vari ...[more]

PMID: 25356904

Similar Datasets

Project description:Monitoring programs designed to assess changes in population size over time need to account for imperfect detection and provide estimates of precision around annual abundance estimates. Especially for species dependent on conservation management, robust monitoring is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of management. Many bird species of temperate grasslands depend on specific conservation management to maintain suitable breeding habitat. One such species is the Aquatic Warbler (Acrocephalus paludicola), which breeds in open fen mires in Central Europe. Aquatic Warbler populations have so far been assessed using a complete survey that aims to enumerate all singing males over a large area. Because this approach provides no estimate of precision and does not account for observation error, detecting moderate population changes is challenging. From 2011 to 2013 we trialled a new line transect sampling monitoring design in the Biebrza valley, Poland, to estimate abundance of singing male Aquatic Warblers. We surveyed Aquatic Warblers repeatedly along 50 randomly placed 1-km transects, and used binomial mixture models to estimate abundances per transect. The repeated line transect sampling required 150 observer days, and thus less effort than the traditional 'full count' approach (175 observer days). Aquatic Warbler abundance was highest at intermediate water levels, and detection probability varied between years and was influenced by vegetation height. A power analysis indicated that our line transect sampling design had a power of 68% to detect a 20% population change over 10 years, whereas raw count data had a 9% power to detect the same trend. Thus, by accounting for imperfect detection we increased the power to detect population changes. We recommend to adopt the repeated line transect sampling approach for monitoring Aquatic Warblers in Poland and in other important breeding areas to monitor changes in population size and the effects of habitat management.

Project description:If animals are independently detected during surveys, many methods exist for estimating animal abundance despite detection probabilities <1. Common estimators include double-observer models, distance sampling models and combined double-observer and distance sampling models (known as mark-recapture-distance-sampling models; MRDS). When animals reside in groups, however, the assumption of independent detection is violated. In this case, the standard approach is to account for imperfect detection of groups, while assuming that individuals within groups are detected perfectly. However, this assumption is often unsupported. We introduce an abundance estimator for grouped animals when detection of groups is imperfect and group size may be under-counted, but not over-counted. The estimator combines an MRDS model with an N-mixture model to account for imperfect detection of individuals. The new MRDS-Nmix model requires the same data as an MRDS model (independent detection histories, an estimate of distance to transect, and an estimate of group size), plus a second estimate of group size provided by the second observer. We extend the model to situations in which detection of individuals within groups declines with distance. We simulated 12 data sets and used Bayesian methods to compare the performance of the new MRDS-Nmix model to an MRDS model. Abundance estimates generated by the MRDS-Nmix model exhibited minimal bias and nominal coverage levels. In contrast, MRDS abundance estimates were biased low and exhibited poor coverage. Many species of conservation interest reside in groups and could benefit from an estimator that better accounts for imperfect detection. Furthermore, the ability to relax the assumption of perfect detection of individuals within detected groups may allow surveyors to re-allocate resources toward detection of new groups instead of extensive surveys of known groups. We believe the proposed estimator is feasible because the only additional field data required are a second estimate of group size.

Project description:Cancer therapy, even when highly targeted, typically fails because of the remarkable capacity of malignant cells to evolve effective adaptations. These evolutionary dynamics are both a cause and a consequence of cancer system heterogeneity at many scales, ranging from genetic properties of individual cells to large-scale imaging features. Tumors of the same organ and cell type can have remarkably diverse appearances in different patients. Furthermore, even within a single tumor, marked variations in imaging features, such as necrosis or contrast enhancement, are common. Similar spatial variations recently have been reported in genetic profiles. Radiologic heterogeneity within tumors is usually governed by variations in blood flow, whereas genetic heterogeneity is typically ascribed to random mutations. However, evolution within tumors, as in all living systems, is subject to Darwinian principles; thus, it is governed by predictable and reproducible interactions between environmental selection forces and cell phenotype (not genotype). This link between regional variations in environmental properties and cellular adaptive strategies may permit clinical imaging to be used to assess and monitor intratumoral evolution in individual patients. This approach is enabled by new methods that extract, report, and analyze quantitative, reproducible, and mineable clinical imaging data. However, most current quantitative metrics lack spatialness, expressing quantitative radiologic features as a single value for a region of interest encompassing the whole tumor. In contrast, spatially explicit image analysis recognizes that tumors are heterogeneous but not well mixed and defines regionally distinct habitats, some of which appear to harbor tumor populations that are more aggressive and less treatable than others. By identifying regional variations in key environmental selection forces and evidence of cellular adaptation, clinical imaging can enable us to define intratumoral Darwinian dynamics before and during therapy. Advances in image analysis will place clinical imaging in an increasingly central role in the development of evolution-based patient-specific cancer therapy.

Dataset Information

Accounting for imperfect detection in ecology: a quantitative review.

Publications

Accounting for imperfect detection in ecology: a quantitative review.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets