Dataset Information

Age-related differences in the accuracy of web query-based predictions of influenza-like illness.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Web queries are now widely used for modeling, nowcasting and forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI). However, given that ILI attack rates vary significantly across ages, in terms of both magnitude and timing, little is known about whether the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related queries is comparable across different age-groups. The present study aimed to investigate features of the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related query volume from the perspective of age.

Methods

Since Google Flu Trends is unavailable in Italy, Google Trends was used to identify entry terms that correlated highly with official ILI surveillance data. All-age and age-class-specific modeling was performed by means of linear models with generalized least-square estimation. Hold-out validation was used to quantify prediction accuracy. For purposes of comparison, predictions generated by exponential smoothing were computed.

Results

Five search terms showed high correlation coefficients of > .6. In comparison with exponential smoothing, the all-age query-based model correctly predicted the peak time and yielded a higher correlation coefficient with observed ILI morbidity (.978 vs. .929). However, query-based prediction of ILI morbidity was associated with a greater error. Age-class-specific query-based models varied significantly in terms of prediction accuracy. In the 0-4 and 25-44-year age-groups, these did well and outperformed exponential smoothing predictions; in the 15-24 and ? 65-year age-classes, however, the query-based models were inaccurate and highly overestimated peak height. In all but one age-class, peak timing predicted by the query-based models coincided with observed timing.

Conclusions

The accuracy of web query-based models in predicting ILI morbidity rates could differ among ages. Greater age-specific detail may be useful in flu query-based studies in order to account for age-specific features of the epidemiology of ILI.

SUBMITTER: Domnich A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4444192 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Age-related differences in the accuracy of web query-based predictions of influenza-like illness.

Domnich Alexander A Panatto Donatella D Signori Alessio A Lai Piero Luigi PL Gasparini Roberto R Amicizia Daniela D

PloS one 20150526 5

<h4>Background</h4>Web queries are now widely used for modeling, nowcasting and forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI). However, given that ILI attack rates vary significantly across ages, in terms of both magnitude and timing, little is known about whether the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related queries is comparable across different age-groups. The present study aimed to investigate features of the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related query volume from the perspect ...[more]

PMID: 26011418

Similar Datasets

Project description:Annual seasonal influenza epidemics of variable severity result in significant morbidity and mortality in the United States (U.S.) and worldwide. In temperate climate countries, including the U.S., influenza activity peaks during the winter months. Annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons in the U.S. aged 6 months and older, and among those at increased risk for influenza-related complications in other parts of the world (e.g. young children, elderly). Observational studies have reported effectiveness of influenza vaccination to reduce the risks of severe disease requiring hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, and death. A diagnosis of influenza should be considered in critically ill patients admitted with complications such as exacerbation of underlying chronic comorbidities, community-acquired pneumonia, and respiratory failure during influenza season. Molecular tests are recommended for influenza testing of respiratory specimens in hospitalized patients. Antigen detection assays are not recommended in critically ill patients because of lower sensitivity; negative results of these tests should not be used to make clinical decisions, and respiratory specimens should be tested for influenza by molecular assays. Because critically ill patients with lower respiratory tract disease may have cleared influenza virus in the upper respiratory tract, but have prolonged influenza viral replication in the lower respiratory tract, an endotracheal aspirate (preferentially) or bronchoalveolar lavage fluid specimen (if collected for other diagnostic purposes) should be tested by molecular assay for detection of influenza viruses.Observational studies have reported that antiviral treatment of critically ill adult influenza patients with a neuraminidase inhibitor is associated with survival benefit. Since earlier initiation of antiviral treatment is associated with the greatest clinical benefit, standard-dose oseltamivir (75 mg twice daily in adults) for enteric administration is recommended as soon as possible as it is well absorbed in critically ill patients. Based upon observational data that suggest harms, adjunctive corticosteroid treatment is currently not recommended for children or adults hospitalized with influenza, including critically ill patients, unless clinically indicated for another reason, such as treatment of asthma or COPD exacerbation, or septic shock. A number of pharmaceutical agents are in development for treatment of severe influenza.

Dataset Information

Age-related differences in the accuracy of web query-based predictions of influenza-like illness.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Age-related differences in the accuracy of web query-based predictions of influenza-like illness.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets