Estimated deaths and illnesses averted during fungal meningitis outbreak associated with contaminated steroid injections, United States, 2012-2013.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Smith RM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4451895 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Estimates of the annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths are needed to set priorities for surveillance, prevention, and control strategies. The objective of this study was to determine such estimates for 2008-2013 in France. We considered 15 major foodborne pathogens (10 bacteria, 3 viruses, and 2 parasites) and estimated that each year, the pathogens accounted for 1.28-2.23 million illnesses, 16,500-20,800 hospitalizations, and 250 deaths. Campylobacter spp., nontyphoidal Salmonella spp., and norovirus accounted for >70% of all foodborne pathogen-associated illnesses and hospitalizations; nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes were the main causes of foodborne pathogen-associated deaths; and hepatitis E virus appeared to be a previously unrecognized foodborne pathogen causing ≈68,000 illnesses in France every year. The substantial annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths in France highlight the need for food-safety policymakers to prioritize foodborne disease prevention and control strategies.
| S-EPMC5572882 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is substantial, yet quantitative estimates of the benefit of annual vaccination programs on influenza-associated mortality are lacking.We estimated the numbers of deaths averted by vaccination in four age groups (0.5 to 4, 5 to 19, 20 to 64 and ?65 yrs.) for the nine influenza seasons from 2005/6 through 2013/14. These estimates were obtained using a Monte Carlo approach applied to weekly U.S. age group-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, monthly vaccination coverage estimates and summary seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates to obtain estimates of the number of deaths averted by vaccination. The estimates are conservative as they do not include indirect vaccination effects.From August, 2005 through June, 2014, we estimated that 40,127 (95% confidence interval [CI] 25,694 to 59,210) deaths were averted by influenza vaccination. We found that of all studied seasons the most deaths were averted by influenza vaccination during the 2012/13 season (9398; 95% CI 2,386 to 19,897) and the fewest during the 2009/10 pandemic (222; 95% CI 79 to 347). Of all influenza-associated deaths averted, 88.9% (95% CI 83 to 92.5%) were in people ?65 yrs. old.The estimated number of deaths averted by the US annual influenza vaccination program is considerable, especially among elderly adults and even when vaccine effectiveness is modest, such as in the 2012/13 season. As indirect effects ("herd immunity") of vaccination are ignored, these estimates represent lower bound estimates and are thus conservative given valid excess mortality estimates.
| S-EPMC4834450 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Vitamin A supplementation (VAS), started as a short-term strategy pending dietary improvements, has been implemented in Ethiopia for the last 15 years. We aimed to describe the trends in VAS coverage and estimated the associated reductions in child mortality. VAS coverage data obtained from the District Health Information System and the Demographic and Health Surveys were linked to child mortality data from the United Nations Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). The number of child deaths averted was modelled assuming 12% and 24% reductions in all-cause mortality. From 2006 to 2011, VAS was delivered through campaigns, and coverage was above 85%. However, from 2011 onwards, VAS delivery was integrated to the routine health system, and the coverage declined to <60% with significant disparities by wealth quintile and rural-urban residence. VAS has saved between 167,563 to 376,030 child lives (2005-2019), but additional lives (>42,000) could have been saved with a universal coverage (95%). Inconsistent supply of vitamin A capsules, but more importantly, low access to health care, and the limited contact opportunities for children after 24 months may have contributed to the declining VAS coverage. Any changes in target or scale-up should thus consider these spatial and socioeconomic variations. Increasing the coverage of VAS and closing the equity gap in access to nutrition services is critical. However, with alternative programmes like vitamin A fortification being set-up, the benefits and safety of VAS need to be closely monitored, particularly in areas where there will be overlap.
| S-EPMC8189216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe U.S. lags in the nationwide implementation of primary prevention interventions that have been shown to be efficacious. However, the potential population health benefit of widespread implementation of these primary prevention interventions remains unclear.MethodsThe meta-analytic literature from October 2013 to March 2014 of primary prevention interventions published between January 2000 and March 2014 was reviewed. The authors then estimated the number of deaths that could have been averted in the U.S. in 2010 if all rigorously studied, efficacious primary prevention interventions for which population attributable risk proportions could be estimated were implemented nationwide.ResultsA total of 372,054 (15.1%) of all U.S. deaths in 2010 would have been averted if all rigorously studied, efficacious primary prevention interventions were implemented. Two in three averted deaths would have been from cardiovascular disease or malignancy.ConclusionsA substantial proportion of deaths in the U.S. in 2010 could have been averted if efficacious primary prevention interventions were implemented nationwide. Further investment in the implementation of efficacious interventions is warranted to maximize population health in the U.S.
| S-EPMC5512568 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere are few estimates of vaccination-averted influenza-associated illnesses in China.MethodsWe used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of influenza-associated outcomes (hospitalization, illness, and medically-attended (MA) illness) averted by vaccination among children aged 6-59 months in Suzhou from October 2011-September 2016. Influenza illnesses included non-hospitalized MA influenza illnesses and non-MA influenza illnesses. The numbers of influenza-associated outcomes averted by vaccination were the difference between the expected burden if there were no vaccination given and the observed burden with vaccination. The model incorporated the disease burden estimated based on surveillance data from Suzhou University Affiliated Children's Hospital (SCH) and data from health utilization surveys conducted in the catchment area of SCH, age-specific estimates of influenza vaccination coverage in Suzhou from the Expanded Program on Immunization database, and influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates from previous publications. Averted influenza estimations were presented as absolute numbers and in terms of the prevented fraction (PF). A hypothetical scenario with 50% coverage (but identical vaccine effectiveness) over the study period was also modeled.ResultsIn ~250,000 children, influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 731 (CI: 549-960) influenza hospitalizations (PF: 6.2% of expected, CI: 5.8-6.6%) and 10,024 (7593-12,937) influenza illnesses (PF: 6.5%, 6.4-6.7%), of which 8342 (6338-10,768) were MA (PF: 6.6%, 6.4-6.7%) from 2011 to 2016. The PFs declined each year along with decreasing influenza vaccination coverage. If 50% of the study population had been vaccinated over time, the estimated numbers of averted cases during the study period would have been 4059 (3120-5762) influenza hospitalizations (PF: 27.2%, 26.4-27.9%) and 56,215 (42,925-78,849) influenza illnesses (PF: 28.5%, 28.3-28.7%), of which 46,596 (35,662-65,234) would be MA (PF: 28.5%, 28.3-28.7%).ConclusionInfluenza vaccination is estimated to have averted influenza-associated illness outcomes even with low coverage in children aged 6-59 months in Suzhou. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage in this population could further reduce illnesses and hospitalizations.
| S-EPMC7728434 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Biannual mass azithromycin distribution to children younger than 5 years has been shown to reduce all-cause mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Antibiotic-sparing approaches to azithromycin distribution, such as targeting to younger children who are at higher risk of mortality, are being considered by policymakers. We evaluated the absolute number of deaths averted in the Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire le Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance study in three age-groups: 1-5 months, 1-11 months, and 1-59 months. The number of deaths averted decreased from 729 (95% CI 492 to 966) in children aged 1-59 months to 297 (95% CI 168 to 427) and 126 (95% CI 43 to 209) in the 1- to 11-month and 1- to 5-month groups, respectively. Limiting antibiotic treatment to a subgroup of higher risk children may result in fewer deaths averted compared with treating all preschool children.
| S-EPMC7470533 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Assessments of the importance of different routes of HIV-1 (HIV) transmission are vital for prioritization of control efforts. Lack of consistent direct data and large uncertainty in the risk of HIV transmission from HIV-contaminated injections has made quantifying the proportion of transmission caused by contaminated injections in sub-Saharan Africa difficult and unavoidably subjective. Depending on the risk assumed, estimates have ranged from 2.5% to 30% or more. We present a method based on an age-structured transmission model that allows the relative contribution of HIV-contaminated injections, and other routes of HIV transmission, to be robustly estimated, both fully quantifying and substantially reducing the associated uncertainty. To do this, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, and show how prior beliefs regarding the safety of injections and the proportion of HIV incidence due to contaminated injections should, in many cases, be substantially modified in light of age-stratified incidence and injection data, resulting in improved (posterior) estimates. Applying the method to data from rural southwest Uganda, we show that the highest estimates of the proportion of incidence due to injections are reduced from 15.5% (95% credible interval) (0.7%, 44.9%) to 5.2% (0.5%, 17.0%) if random mixing is assumed, and from 14.6% (0.7%, 42.5%) to 11.8% (1.2%, 32.5%) under assortative mixing. Lower, and more widely accepted, estimates remain largely unchanged, between 1% and 3% (0.1-6.3%). Although important uncertainty remains, our analysis shows that in rural Uganda, contaminated injections are unlikely to account for a large proportion of HIV incidence. This result is likely to be generalizable to many other populations in sub-Saharan Africa.
| S-EPMC1887593 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInfluenza causes significant morbidity and mortality, with considerable economic costs, including lost work productivity. Influenza vaccines may reduce the economic burden through primary prevention of influenza and reduction in illness severity.MethodsWe examined illness severity and work productivity loss among working adults with medically attended acute respiratory illnesses and compared outcomes for subjects with and without laboratory-confirmed influenza and by influenza vaccination status among subjects with influenza during the 2012-2013 influenza season.ResultsIllnesses laboratory-confirmed as influenza (ie, cases) were subjectively assessed as more severe than illnesses not caused by influenza (ie, noncases) based on multiple measures, including current health status at study enrollment (?7 days from illness onset) and current activity and sleep quality status relative to usual. Influenza cases reported missing 45% more work hours (20.5 vs 15.0; P < .001) than noncases and subjectively assessed their work productivity as impeded to a greater degree (6.0 vs 5.4; P < .001). Current health status and current activity relative to usual were subjectively assessed as modestly but significantly better for vaccinated cases compared with unvaccinated cases; however, no significant modifications of sleep quality, missed work hours, or work productivity loss were noted for vaccinated subjects.ConclusionsInfluenza illnesses were more severe and resulted in more missed work hours and productivity loss than illnesses not confirmed as influenza. Modest reductions in illness severity for vaccinated cases were observed. These findings highlight the burden of influenza illnesses and illustrate the importance of laboratory confirmation of influenza outcomes in evaluations of vaccine effectiveness.
| S-EPMC4725387 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since December 2019, over 1.5 million SARS-CoV-2-related fatalities have been recorded in the World Health Organization European Region - 90.2% in people ≥ 60 years. We calculated lives saved in this age group by COVID-19 vaccination in 33 countries from December 2020 to November 2021, using weekly reported deaths and vaccination coverage. We estimated that vaccination averted 469,186 deaths (51% of 911,302 expected deaths; sensitivity range: 129,851-733,744; 23-62%). Impact by country ranged 6-93%, largest when implementation was early.
| S-EPMC8619871 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe averted infections ratio (AIR) is a novel measure for quantifying the preservation-of-effect in active-control non-inferiority clinical trials with a time-to-event outcome. In the main formulation, the AIR requires an estimate of the counterfactual placebo incidence rate. We describe two approaches for calculating confidence limits for the AIR given a point estimate of this parameter, a closed-form solution based on a Taylor series expansion (delta method) and an iterative method based on the profile-likelihood.MethodsFor each approach, exact coverage probabilities for the lower and upper confidence limits were computed over a grid of values of (1) the true value of the AIR (2) the expected number of counterfactual events (3) the effectiveness of the active-control treatment.ResultsFocussing on the lower confidence limit, which determines whether non-inferiority can be declared, the coverage achieved by the delta method is either less than or greater than the nominal coverage, depending on the true value of the AIR. In contrast, the coverage achieved by the profile-likelihood method is consistently accurate.ConclusionsThe profile-likelihood method is preferred because of better coverage properties, but the simpler delta method is valid when the experimental treatment is no less effective than the control treatment. A complementary Bayesian approach, which can be applied when the counterfactual incidence rate can be represented as a prior distribution, is also outlined.
| S-EPMC9204757 | biostudies-literature