Estimated deaths and illnesses averted during fungal meningitis outbreak associated with contaminated steroid injections, United States, 2012-2013.
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SUBMITTER: Smith RM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4451895 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Estimates of the annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths are needed to set priorities for surveillance, prevention, and control strategies. The objective of this study was to determine such estimates for 2008-2013 in France. We considered 15 major foodborne pathogens (10 bacteria, 3 viruses, and 2 parasites) and estimated that each year, the pathogens accounted for 1.28-2.23 million illnesses, 16,500-20,800 hospitalizations, and 250 deaths. Campylobacter spp., nontyphoidal Salmonella spp., and norovirus accounted for >70% of all foodborne pathogen-associated illnesses and hospitalizations; nontyphoidal Salmonella spp. and Listeria monocytogenes were the main causes of foodborne pathogen-associated deaths; and hepatitis E virus appeared to be a previously unrecognized foodborne pathogen causing ≈68,000 illnesses in France every year. The substantial annual numbers of foodborne illnesses and associated hospitalizations and deaths in France highlight the need for food-safety policymakers to prioritize foodborne disease prevention and control strategies.
| S-EPMC5572882 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is substantial, yet quantitative estimates of the benefit of annual vaccination programs on influenza-associated mortality are lacking.We estimated the numbers of deaths averted by vaccination in four age groups (0.5 to 4, 5 to 19, 20 to 64 and ?65 yrs.) for the nine influenza seasons from 2005/6 through 2013/14. These estimates were obtained using a Monte Carlo approach applied to weekly U.S. age group-specific estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, monthly vaccination coverage estimates and summary seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates to obtain estimates of the number of deaths averted by vaccination. The estimates are conservative as they do not include indirect vaccination effects.From August, 2005 through June, 2014, we estimated that 40,127 (95% confidence interval [CI] 25,694 to 59,210) deaths were averted by influenza vaccination. We found that of all studied seasons the most deaths were averted by influenza vaccination during the 2012/13 season (9398; 95% CI 2,386 to 19,897) and the fewest during the 2009/10 pandemic (222; 95% CI 79 to 347). Of all influenza-associated deaths averted, 88.9% (95% CI 83 to 92.5%) were in people ?65 yrs. old.The estimated number of deaths averted by the US annual influenza vaccination program is considerable, especially among elderly adults and even when vaccine effectiveness is modest, such as in the 2012/13 season. As indirect effects ("herd immunity") of vaccination are ignored, these estimates represent lower bound estimates and are thus conservative given valid excess mortality estimates.
| S-EPMC4834450 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Vitamin A supplementation (VAS), started as a short-term strategy pending dietary improvements, has been implemented in Ethiopia for the last 15 years. We aimed to describe the trends in VAS coverage and estimated the associated reductions in child mortality. VAS coverage data obtained from the District Health Information System and the Demographic and Health Surveys were linked to child mortality data from the United Nations Interagency Group for Child Mortality Estimation (UN IGME). The number of child deaths averted was modelled assuming 12% and 24% reductions in all-cause mortality. From 2006 to 2011, VAS was delivered through campaigns, and coverage was above 85%. However, from 2011 onwards, VAS delivery was integrated to the routine health system, and the coverage declined to <60% with significant disparities by wealth quintile and rural-urban residence. VAS has saved between 167,563 to 376,030 child lives (2005-2019), but additional lives (>42,000) could have been saved with a universal coverage (95%). Inconsistent supply of vitamin A capsules, but more importantly, low access to health care, and the limited contact opportunities for children after 24 months may have contributed to the declining VAS coverage. Any changes in target or scale-up should thus consider these spatial and socioeconomic variations. Increasing the coverage of VAS and closing the equity gap in access to nutrition services is critical. However, with alternative programmes like vitamin A fortification being set-up, the benefits and safety of VAS need to be closely monitored, particularly in areas where there will be overlap.
| S-EPMC8189216 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA nationwide Severe Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination campaign was initiated in Brazil in January 2021 with CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AstraZeneca) followed by BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer-BioNTech) and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson-Janssen) vaccines. Here we provide estimates of the number of severe cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease (COVID-19) averted during the first year of the mass vaccination campaign in Brazil.MethodsData on COVID-19 vaccination and COVID-19-related illness and death were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and used to estimate the direct effects of the vaccination campaign on the number of severe cases and deaths due to COVID-19 occurring between January 17, 2021 and January 31, 2022. To this end, we compared the daily age-specific rates between the unvaccinated population and the "at least partly vaccinated" population (received at least one dose of a two-dose vaccine), as well as other two vaccination subgroups, "fully vaccinated" (completed the one- or two-dose vaccine schedule), and "boosted-vaccinated" (fully vaccinated and recipients of booster dose) populations.FindingsWe estimated that 74% (n = 875,846; 95% confidence interval, CI 843,383-915,709) of total expected cases of severe COVID-19 and 82% (n = 303,129; 95% CI 284,019-321,681) of total expected deaths due to COVID-19 were averted in the first year of the national vaccination campaign. The averted burden was heterogeneous between age groups and higher in the more populous states. However, outcome rate differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated groups were higher in the less populated states.InterpretationThe first year of the COVID-19 vaccination program in Brazil saved the lives of at least 303,129 adults. The results highlight the need for future vaccination campaigns, including those required in the current pandemic, to rapidly achieve high uptake, particularly among the elderly and residents of the least populous regions.FundingMinistry of Health (Brazil).
| S-EPMC9779315 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe U.S. lags in the nationwide implementation of primary prevention interventions that have been shown to be efficacious. However, the potential population health benefit of widespread implementation of these primary prevention interventions remains unclear.MethodsThe meta-analytic literature from October 2013 to March 2014 of primary prevention interventions published between January 2000 and March 2014 was reviewed. The authors then estimated the number of deaths that could have been averted in the U.S. in 2010 if all rigorously studied, efficacious primary prevention interventions for which population attributable risk proportions could be estimated were implemented nationwide.ResultsA total of 372,054 (15.1%) of all U.S. deaths in 2010 would have been averted if all rigorously studied, efficacious primary prevention interventions were implemented. Two in three averted deaths would have been from cardiovascular disease or malignancy.ConclusionsA substantial proportion of deaths in the U.S. in 2010 could have been averted if efficacious primary prevention interventions were implemented nationwide. Further investment in the implementation of efficacious interventions is warranted to maximize population health in the U.S.
| S-EPMC5512568 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere are few estimates of vaccination-averted influenza-associated illnesses in China.MethodsWe used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of influenza-associated outcomes (hospitalization, illness, and medically-attended (MA) illness) averted by vaccination among children aged 6-59 months in Suzhou from October 2011-September 2016. Influenza illnesses included non-hospitalized MA influenza illnesses and non-MA influenza illnesses. The numbers of influenza-associated outcomes averted by vaccination were the difference between the expected burden if there were no vaccination given and the observed burden with vaccination. The model incorporated the disease burden estimated based on surveillance data from Suzhou University Affiliated Children's Hospital (SCH) and data from health utilization surveys conducted in the catchment area of SCH, age-specific estimates of influenza vaccination coverage in Suzhou from the Expanded Program on Immunization database, and influenza vaccine effectiveness estimates from previous publications. Averted influenza estimations were presented as absolute numbers and in terms of the prevented fraction (PF). A hypothetical scenario with 50% coverage (but identical vaccine effectiveness) over the study period was also modeled.ResultsIn ~250,000 children, influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 731 (CI: 549-960) influenza hospitalizations (PF: 6.2% of expected, CI: 5.8-6.6%) and 10,024 (7593-12,937) influenza illnesses (PF: 6.5%, 6.4-6.7%), of which 8342 (6338-10,768) were MA (PF: 6.6%, 6.4-6.7%) from 2011 to 2016. The PFs declined each year along with decreasing influenza vaccination coverage. If 50% of the study population had been vaccinated over time, the estimated numbers of averted cases during the study period would have been 4059 (3120-5762) influenza hospitalizations (PF: 27.2%, 26.4-27.9%) and 56,215 (42,925-78,849) influenza illnesses (PF: 28.5%, 28.3-28.7%), of which 46,596 (35,662-65,234) would be MA (PF: 28.5%, 28.3-28.7%).ConclusionInfluenza vaccination is estimated to have averted influenza-associated illness outcomes even with low coverage in children aged 6-59 months in Suzhou. Increasing influenza vaccination coverage in this population could further reduce illnesses and hospitalizations.
| S-EPMC7728434 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Biannual mass azithromycin distribution to children younger than 5 years has been shown to reduce all-cause mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Antibiotic-sparing approaches to azithromycin distribution, such as targeting to younger children who are at higher risk of mortality, are being considered by policymakers. We evaluated the absolute number of deaths averted in the Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire le Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance study in three age-groups: 1-5 months, 1-11 months, and 1-59 months. The number of deaths averted decreased from 729 (95% CI 492 to 966) in children aged 1-59 months to 297 (95% CI 168 to 427) and 126 (95% CI 43 to 209) in the 1- to 11-month and 1- to 5-month groups, respectively. Limiting antibiotic treatment to a subgroup of higher risk children may result in fewer deaths averted compared with treating all preschool children.
| S-EPMC7470533 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceIncome has a negative, nonlinear association with all-cause mortality. Income support policies may prevent deaths among low-income populations by raising their incomes.ObjectiveTo estimate the deaths that could be averted among working-age adults age 18 to 64 years with hypothetical income support policies in the US.Design setting and populationAn open, multicohort life-table model was developed that simulated working-age adults age 18 to 64 years in the US over 5 to 40 years. Publicly available household income data and previous estimates of the income-mortality association were used to generate mortality rates by income group. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the effect of parameter uncertainty and various model assumptions on the findings.InterventionsIn addition to a no-intervention scenario, 4 hypothetical income support policies were modeled: universal basic income, modified LIFT Act, poverty alleviation, and negative income tax.Main outcome and measuresThe main outcome was the number of deaths averted, which was calculated by subtracting the number of deaths experienced in the no-intervention scenario from the number of deaths experienced with the various income support policies.ResultsBase-case assumptions used average mortality rates by age, sex, and income group, a 20-year time horizon, and a 3-year lag time. Universal basic income worth $12 000 per year per individual was estimated to avert the most deaths among working-age adults (42 000-104 000 per year), followed by a negative income tax that guaranteed an income of 133% of the federal poverty level (19 000-67 000 per year). A modified LIFT Act that provided $6000 to individuals with annual household incomes less than $100 000 was estimated to avert 17 000 to 52 000 deaths per year. A targeted approach that alleviated poverty was estimated to prevent 12 000 to 32 000 deaths among the lowest-income, working-age adult population. Results were most sensitive to several inputs and assumptions, primarily the income-based mortality rates, analytic time horizon, and assumed time lag between when a policy was implemented and when individuals experienced the mortality benefit of having higher incomes.Conclusions and relevanceIn this modeling study, 4 hypothetical income support policies were estimated to avert thousands of deaths among working-age US adults every year. Additional research is needed to understand the true association of income gains with mortality. Discussions about the costs and benefits of income support policies should include potential gains in health.
| S-EPMC9187947 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Assessments of the importance of different routes of HIV-1 (HIV) transmission are vital for prioritization of control efforts. Lack of consistent direct data and large uncertainty in the risk of HIV transmission from HIV-contaminated injections has made quantifying the proportion of transmission caused by contaminated injections in sub-Saharan Africa difficult and unavoidably subjective. Depending on the risk assumed, estimates have ranged from 2.5% to 30% or more. We present a method based on an age-structured transmission model that allows the relative contribution of HIV-contaminated injections, and other routes of HIV transmission, to be robustly estimated, both fully quantifying and substantially reducing the associated uncertainty. To do this, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, and show how prior beliefs regarding the safety of injections and the proportion of HIV incidence due to contaminated injections should, in many cases, be substantially modified in light of age-stratified incidence and injection data, resulting in improved (posterior) estimates. Applying the method to data from rural southwest Uganda, we show that the highest estimates of the proportion of incidence due to injections are reduced from 15.5% (95% credible interval) (0.7%, 44.9%) to 5.2% (0.5%, 17.0%) if random mixing is assumed, and from 14.6% (0.7%, 42.5%) to 11.8% (1.2%, 32.5%) under assortative mixing. Lower, and more widely accepted, estimates remain largely unchanged, between 1% and 3% (0.1-6.3%). Although important uncertainty remains, our analysis shows that in rural Uganda, contaminated injections are unlikely to account for a large proportion of HIV incidence. This result is likely to be generalizable to many other populations in sub-Saharan Africa.
| S-EPMC1887593 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInfluenza causes significant morbidity and mortality, with considerable economic costs, including lost work productivity. Influenza vaccines may reduce the economic burden through primary prevention of influenza and reduction in illness severity.MethodsWe examined illness severity and work productivity loss among working adults with medically attended acute respiratory illnesses and compared outcomes for subjects with and without laboratory-confirmed influenza and by influenza vaccination status among subjects with influenza during the 2012-2013 influenza season.ResultsIllnesses laboratory-confirmed as influenza (ie, cases) were subjectively assessed as more severe than illnesses not caused by influenza (ie, noncases) based on multiple measures, including current health status at study enrollment (?7 days from illness onset) and current activity and sleep quality status relative to usual. Influenza cases reported missing 45% more work hours (20.5 vs 15.0; P < .001) than noncases and subjectively assessed their work productivity as impeded to a greater degree (6.0 vs 5.4; P < .001). Current health status and current activity relative to usual were subjectively assessed as modestly but significantly better for vaccinated cases compared with unvaccinated cases; however, no significant modifications of sleep quality, missed work hours, or work productivity loss were noted for vaccinated subjects.ConclusionsInfluenza illnesses were more severe and resulted in more missed work hours and productivity loss than illnesses not confirmed as influenza. Modest reductions in illness severity for vaccinated cases were observed. These findings highlight the burden of influenza illnesses and illustrate the importance of laboratory confirmation of influenza outcomes in evaluations of vaccine effectiveness.
| S-EPMC4725387 | biostudies-literature