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'SEEDY' (Simulation of Evolutionary and Epidemiological Dynamics): An R Package to Follow Accumulation of Within-Host Mutation in Pathogens.

ABSTRACT: Genome sequencing is an increasingly common component of infectious disease outbreak investigations. However, the relationship between pathogen transmission and observed genetic data is complex, and dependent on several uncertain factors. As such, simulation of pathogen dynamics is an important tool for interpreting observed genomic data in an infectious disease outbreak setting, in order to test hypotheses and to explore the range of outcomes consistent with a given set of parameters. We introduce 'seedy', an R package for the simulation of evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics (http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/seedy/). Our software implements stochastic models for the accumulation of mutations within hosts, as well as individual-level disease transmission. By allowing variables such as the transmission bottleneck size, within-host effective population size and population mixing rates to be specified by the user, our package offers a flexible framework to investigate evolutionary dynamics during disease outbreaks. Furthermore, our software provides theoretical pairwise genetic distance distributions to provide a likelihood of person-to-person transmission based on genomic observations, and using this framework, implements transmission route assessment for genomic data collected during an outbreak. Our open source software provides an accessible platform for users to explore pathogen evolution and outbreak dynamics via simulation, and offers tools to assess observed genomic data in this context.

SUBMITTER: Worby CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4467979 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundRecent epidemics have entailed global discussions on revamping epidemic control and prevention approaches. A general consensus is that all sources of data should be embraced to improve epidemic preparedness. As a disease transmission is inherently governed by individual-level responses, pathogen dynamics within infected hosts posit high potentials to inform population-level phenomena. We propose a multiscale approach showing that individual dynamics were able to reproduce population-level observations.MethodsUsing experimental data, we formulated mathematical models of pathogen infection dynamics from which we simulated mechanistically its transmission parameters. The models were then embedded in our implementation of an age-specific contact network that allows to express individual differences relevant to the transmission processes. This approach is illustrated with an example of Ebola virus (EBOV).ResultsThe results showed that a within-host infection model can reproduce EBOV's transmission parameters obtained from population data. At the same time, population age-structure, contact distribution and patterns can be expressed using network generating algorithm. This framework opens a vast opportunity to investigate individual roles of factors involved in the epidemic processes. Estimating EBOV's reproduction number revealed a heterogeneous pattern among age-groups, prompting cautions on estimates unadjusted for contact pattern. Assessments of mass vaccination strategies showed that vaccination conducted in a time window from five months before to one week after the start of an epidemic appeared to strongly reduce epidemic size. Noticeably, compared to a non-intervention scenario, a low critical vaccination coverage of 33% cannot ensure epidemic extinction but could reduce the number of cases by ten to hundred times as well as lessen the case-fatality rate.ConclusionsExperimental data on the within-host infection have been able to capture upfront key transmission parameters of a pathogen; the applications of this approach will give us more time to prepare for potential epidemics. The population of interest in epidemic assessments could be modelled with an age-specific contact network without exhaustive amount of data. Further assessments and adaptations for different pathogens and scenarios to explore multilevel aspects in infectious diseases epidemics are underway.

Dataset Information

'SEEDY' (Simulation of Evolutionary and Epidemiological Dynamics): An R Package to Follow Accumulation of Within-Host Mutation in Pathogens.

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