Interaction of Mean Temperature and Daily Fluctuation Influences Dengue Incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Sharmin S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC4498835 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Dengue has been regularly reported in Dhaka, Bangladesh, since a large outbreak in 2000. However, to date, we have limited information on the seasonal distribution of dengue disease and how case distribution correlates with climate. Here, we analyzed dengue cases detected at a private diagnostic facility in Dhaka during 2010-2014. We calculated Pearson cross-correlation coefficients to examine the relationship between the timing of cases and both rainfall and temperature. There were 2,334 cases diagnosed during the study period with 76% over the age of 15 years. Cases were reported in every month of the study; however, 90% of cases occurred between June and November. Increases in rainfall were correlated with increases in cases 2 months later (correlation of 0.7). The large proportion of adult cases is consistent with substantial population susceptibility and suggests Dhaka remains at risk for outbreaks. Although cases occurred year-round, public health preparedness should be focused during peak months.
| S-EPMC4889757 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundDengue virus (DENV) activity has been reported in Dhaka, Bangladesh since the early 1960s with the greatest burden of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever cases observed in 2000. Since this time, the intensity of dengue activity has varied from year to year, and its determining factors remained relatively unknown. In light of such gaps in knowledge, the main objectives of this study were to determine the magnitude of seroprevalence and seroconversion among the surveyed population, and establish the individual/household level risk factors for the presence of DENV antibodies among all age groups of target populations in the city of Dhaka.Methodology/principal findingsConsidering the lack of fine scale investigations on the factors driving dengue activity in Bangladesh, a prospective cohort study involving serological surveys was undertaken with participant interviews and blood donation across the city of Dhaka in 2012. Study participants were recruited from 12 of 90 wards and blood samples were collected during both the pre-monsoon (n = 1125) and post-monsoon (n = 600) seasons of 2012. The findings revealed that the seroprevalence in all pre-monsoon samples was 80.0% (900/1125) while the seropositivity in the pre-monsoon samples that had paired post-monsoon samples was 83.3% (503/600). Of the 97 paired samples that were negative at the pre-monsoon time point, 56 were positive at the post-monsoon time point. This resulted in a seroprevalence of 93.2% (559/600) among individuals tested during the post-monsoon period. Seroprevalence trended higher with age with children exhibiting a lower seropositivity as compared to adults. Results from this study also indicated that DENV strains were the only flaviviruses circulating in Dhaka in 2012. A multivariate analysis revealed that age, possession of indoor potted plants, and types of mosquito control measures were significant factors associated with DENV seroprevalence; while attendance in public/mass gatherings, and use of mosquito control measures were significantly associated with DENV seroconversion after adjusting for all other variables.Conclusions/significanceOur study suggests that there is a high level of endemic dengue virus circulation in the city of Dhaka which has resulted in significant DENV seroprevalence among its residents. Seropositivity increased with age, however, a substantial proportion of children are at risk for DENV infections. Our serological analysis also documents considerable DENV seroconversion among study participants which indicates that a large proportion of the population in the city of Dhaka were newly exposed to DENV during the study period (pre-and post-monsoon 2012). High levels of seroconversion suggest that there was an intense circulation of DENV in 2012 and this may have resulted in a significant risk for viral associated illness. Findings of our study further indicated that home-based interventions, such as removing indoor potted plants and increased bed net use, in addition to vector control measures in public parks, would reduce exposure to DENV and further decrease risk of viral associated disease.
| S-EPMC5380355 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The acute effect of temperature on asthma morbidity in Bangladesh is not well understood. As climate varies extensively in different parts of the world, the relation between temperature and asthma might also differ. We investigated the association between temperature and asthma-related hospital visits in the tropical city of Dhaka. We analyzed information from a total of 5989 asthma patients who received ambulatory care in the form of nebulized medication at the National Asthma Center in Mohakhali, Dhaka from February to November 2013. A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted to estimate the effect of daily temperature, with consideration of delayed effects and possible confounders such as relative humidity and political strikes. An inverse association was observed between temperature and the number of hospital visits. The effect was delayed for approximately a week. A degree centigrade decrease in mean temperature (averaged across lags 0-6) was associated with an increase of approximately 4.5% (95% CI 1.5, 7.5) in all asthma visits. The association was evident in adult males but marginal in elderly males. A positive association (lag 0) was observed among adult females, whereas no association was observed among children. Strikes significantly modified the effect among the elderly. Findings suggest temperature declines affect asthma outcomes in a warm climate, and this effect can be delayed and vary by sex and age group.
| S-EPMC7908622 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue, the most important mosquito-borne viral disease of humans is a recurring global health problem. In Bangladesh, dengue outbreaks are on the increase despite the efforts of government and it is not clear what the understanding of the general Dhaka population towards dengue fever is. Knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) studies are essential guides in public health interventions. Hence, using KAP, this study aims to assess patient-perspectives with regards to factors associated with dengue, as well as investigate the associated factors between the two corporations in Dhaka. A Hospital-based cross-sectional study of 242 fever patients from two city-corporations in Dhaka (Dhaka North City Corporations, DNCC (n = 91, 37.6%) and Dhaka South City Corporation, DSCC (n = 151, 62.4%) was conducted using pre-tested KAP items. Wilcoxon's Rank Sum was used to determine the KAP by DNCC, DSCC and both corporations and multivariate Poisson regression analyses. The two corporations were analysed separately due to the differences in income distribution, concentration of slums, hospitals and clinics. The study found that more than half of the study population were knowledgeable about dengue (mean percentage scores was 52%), possess an appropriate and acceptable attitude towards the disease (69.2%), and about two thirds of the respondents (71.4%) engaged in practices towards its prevention. After adjusting for the potential cofounders, the factors associated with KAP about dengue fever varied between DNCC and DSCC; with duration of residency and use of mosquito nets were associated with knowledge in the north while income class and age were associated with knowledge and attitude in the south. In the pooled analysis (combining both corporations), knowledge of dengue was associated with good practice towards dengue fever among the respondents. The duration of residence in Dhaka (10+ years), not using mosquito nets and length of time spent in the hospital (7+ days) due to dengue, and decreased knowledge (Adjusted coefficient (β) = -0.01, 95%CI: -0.02, -0.01) were associated with attitude towards dengue in DNCC. On the other hand, middle-high income class, age (40+ years) and increased knowledge were associated with practice towards dengue in DSCC (β = 0.02, 95%CI: 0.01, 0.03). Efforts to increase knowledge about dengue fever through education by the administrations of both corporations would benefit from targeting these high-risk groups for a more sustainable outcome.
| S-EPMC8009423 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWhile floods can potentially increase the transmission of dengue, only few studies have reported the association of dengue epidemics with flooding. We estimated the effects of river levels and rainfall on the hospital admissions for dengue fever at 11 major hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh.MethodsWe examined time-series of the number of hospital admissions of dengue fever in relation to river levels from 2005 to 2009 using generalized linear Poisson regression models adjusting for seasonal, between-year variation, public holidays and temperature.ResultsThere was strong evidence for an increase in dengue fever at high river levels. Hospitalisations increased by 6.9% (95% CI: 3.2, 10.7) for each 0.1 metre increase above a threshold (3.9 metres) for the average river level over lags of 0-5?weeks. Conversely, the number of hospitalisations increased by 29.6% (95% CI: 19.8, 40.2) for a 0.1 metre decrease below the same threshold of the average river level over lags of 0-19?weeks.ConclusionsOur findings provide evidence that factors associated with both high and low river levels increase the hospitalisations of dengue fever cases in Dhaka.
| S-EPMC3528427 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8775334 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDengue virus (DENV) infection is one of the biggest challenges for human health in the world. In addition, a secondary DENV infection sometimes causes dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), which frequently leads to death. For this reason, accurate diagnosis record management is useful for prediction of DHF. Therefore, the demand for DENV rapid diagnosis tests (RDTs) is increasing because these tests are easy and rapid to use. However, commercially available RDTs often show low sensitivity for DENV and cross-reactivity against other flaviviruses, especially Zika virus (ZIKV).MethodsWe developed two types of novel DENV non-structural protein 1 (NS1) detection RDTs, designated TKK-1st and TKK-2nd kits. Specificities of the monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) used in these kits were confirmed by enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assay (ELISA), dot blot, and western blot using recombinant NS1 proteins and synthetic peptides. For evaluation of sensitivity, specificity, and cross-reactivity of the novel DENV NS1 RDTs, we first used cultured DENV and other flaviviruses, ZIKV and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). We then used clinical specimens obtained in Bangladesh in 2017 for further evaluation of kit sensitivity and specificity in comparison with commercially available RDTs. In addition, RNA extracted from sera were used for viral genome sequencing and genotyping.ResultsEpitopes of three out of four MAbs used in the two novel RDTs were located in amino acid positions 100 to 122 in the NS1 protein, a region that shows low levels of homology with other flaviviruses. Our new kits showed high levels of sensitivity against various serotypes and genotypes of DENV and exhibited high levels of specificity without cross-reactivity against ZIKV and JEV. In clinical specimens, our RDTs showed sensitivities of 96.0% (145/151, TKK-1st kit) and 96.7% (146/151, TKK-2nd kit), and specificities of 98.0% (98/100, TKK-1st kit and TKK-2nd kit). On the other hand, in the case of the commercially available SD Bioline RDT, sensitivity was 83.4% (126/151) and specificity was 99.0% (99/100) against the same clinical specimens.ConclusionsOur novel DENV NS1-targeting RDTs demonstrated high levels of sensitivity and lacked cross-reactivity against ZIKV and JEV compared with commercially available RDTs.
| S-EPMC6694664 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background The association between ambient temperature and cardiovascular diseases has been well established, but evidence of temporal changes in the risk of acute aortic dissection (AAD) onset is lacking. Methods and Results We conducted an 8-year time-series study based on data from 2120 patients diagnosed with AAD at Tongji Hospital (Wuhan, China). Daily meteorological parameters were measured in the study area. Spearman's rank correlation analysis was applied to measure the associations between daily meteorological data and air pollution indicators. A distributed lag nonlinear model following quasi-Poisson regression was used to express the nonlinear exposure-response relationships and lag effects of daily mean temperature and temperature variability on the occurrence of AAD. Considering a 25-day lag effect, lower or higher temperatures with reference to 25°C did not alter the onset risk of AAD. The lag effect of daily mean temperature on the incidence of AAD is statistically significant within 2 days, and the impact of daily mean temperature on the risk is most influential on the day. The exposure-response curve between daily mean temperature and onset risks of AAD at lag 0 showed that the extremely cold temperature (2.5th percentile, 0.5°C) significantly increased the AAD risk for the total (relative risk, 1.733; 95% CI, 1.130-2.658) and type A dissection (relative risk, 3.951; 95% CI, 1.657-9.418). Temperature variability within 1 week did not affect the onset risks of AAD for the total. Conclusions We confirmed that extremely cold temperatures significantly increased the AAD risk, which could contribute to early prevention and timely diagnosis of the disease.
| S-EPMC8403292 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDengue, a febrile illness, is caused by a Flavivirus transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Climate influences the ecology of the vectors. We aimed to identify the influence of climatic variability on the occurrence of clinical dengue requiring hospitalization in Zone-5, a high incidence area of Dhaka City Corporation (DCC), Bangladesh.Methods and findingsWe retrospectively identified clinical dengue cases hospitalized from Zone-5 of DCC between 2005 and 2009. We extracted records of the four major catchment hospitals of the study area. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) provided data on temperature, rainfall, and humidity of DCC for the study period. We used autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models for the number of monthly dengue hospitalizations. We also modeled all the climatic variables using Poisson regression. During our study period, dengue occurred throughout the year in Zone-5 of DCC. The median number of hospitalized dengue cases was 9 per month. Dengue incidence increased sharply from June, and reached its peak in August. One additional rainy day per month increased dengue cases in the succeeding month by 6% (RR = 1.06, 95% CI: 1.04-1.09).ConclusionsDengue is transmitted throughout the year in Zone-5 of DCC, with seasonal variation in incidence. The number of rainy days per month is significantly associated with dengue incidence in the subsequent month. Our study suggests the initiation of campaigns in DCC for controlling dengue and other Aedes mosquito borne diseases, including Chikunguniya from the month of May each year. BMD rainfall data may be used to determine campaign timing.
| S-EPMC7765799 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Paris Climate Agreement aims to hold global-mean temperature well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels. While it is recognized that there are benefits for human health in limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the magnitude with which those societal benefits will be accrued remains unquantified. Crucial to public health preparedness and response is the understanding and quantification of such impacts at different levels of warming. Using dengue in Latin America as a study case, a climate-driven dengue generalized additive mixed model was developed to predict global warming impacts using five different global circulation models, all scaled to represent multiple global-mean temperature assumptions. We show that policies to limit global warming to 2 °C could reduce dengue cases by about 2.8 (0.8-7.4) million cases per year by the end of the century compared with a no-policy scenario that warms by 3.7 °C. Limiting warming further to 1.5 °C produces an additional drop in cases of about 0.5 (0.2-1.1) million per year. Furthermore, we found that by limiting global warming we can limit the expansion of the disease toward areas where incidence is currently low. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more comprehensive studies incorporating socioeconomic scenarios and how they may further impact dengue incidence. Our results demonstrate that although future climate change may amplify dengue transmission in the region, impacts may be avoided by constraining the level of warming.
| S-EPMC6004471 | biostudies-other