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Interaction of Mean Temperature and Daily Fluctuation Influences Dengue Incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

ABSTRACT: Local weather influences the transmission of the dengue virus. Most studies analyzing the relationship between dengue and climate are based on relatively coarse aggregate measures such as mean temperature. Here, we include both mean temperature and daily fluctuations in temperature in modelling dengue transmission in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model, adjusted for rainfall, anomalies in sea surface temperature (an index for El Niño-Southern Oscillation), population density, the number of dengue cases in the previous month, and the long term temporal trend in dengue incidence. In addition to the significant associations of mean temperature and temperature fluctuation with dengue incidence, we found interaction of mean and temperature fluctuation significantly influences disease transmission at a lag of one month. High mean temperature with low fluctuation increases dengue incidence one month later. Besides temperature, dengue incidence was also influenced by sea surface temperature anomalies in the current and previous month, presumably as a consequence of concomitant anomalies in the annual rainfall cycle. Population density exerted a significant positive influence on dengue incidence indicating increasing risk of dengue in over-populated Dhaka. Understanding these complex relationships between climate, population, and dengue incidence will help inform outbreak prediction and control.

SUBMITTER: Sharmin S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4498835 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Interaction of Mean Temperature and Daily Fluctuation Influences Dengue Incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

Sharmin Sifat S Glass Kathryn K Viennet Elvina E Harley David D

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20150710 7

Local weather influences the transmission of the dengue virus. Most studies analyzing the relationship between dengue and climate are based on relatively coarse aggregate measures such as mean temperature. Here, we include both mean temperature and daily fluctuations in temperature in modelling dengue transmission in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model, adjusted for rainfall, anomalies in sea surface temperature (an index for El Niño-Southern Os ...[more]

PMID: 26161895

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Project description:BackgroundIn Bangladesh, particularly in Dhaka city, dengue fever is a major factor in serious sickness and hospitalization. The weather influences the temporal and geographical spread of the vector-borne disease dengue in Dhaka. As a result, rainfall and ambient temperature are considered macro factors influencing dengue since they have a direct impact on Aedes aegypti population density, which changes seasonally dependent on these critical variables. This study aimed to clarify the relationship between climatic variables and the incidence of dengue disease.MethodsA total of 2253 dengue and climate data were used for this study. Maximum and minimum temperature (°C), humidity (grams of water vapor per kilogram of air g.kg-1), rainfall (mm), sunshine hour (in (average) hours per day), and wind speed (knots (kt)) in Dhaka were considered as the independent variables for this study which trigger the dengue incidence in Dhaka city, Bangladesh. Missing values were imputed using multiple imputation techniques. Descriptive and correlation analyses were performed for each variable and stationary tests were observed using Dicky Fuller test. However, initially, the Poisson model, zero-inflated regression model, and negative binomial model were fitted for this problem. Finally, the negative binomial model is considered the final model for this study based on minimum AIC values.ResultsThe mean of maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, sunshine hour, and rainfall showed some fluctuations over the years. However, a mean number of dengue cases reported a higher incidence in recent years. Maximum and minimum temperature, humidity, and wind speed were positively correlated with dengue cases. However, rainfall and sunshine hours were negatively associated with dengue cases. The findings showed that factors such as maximum temperature, minimum temperature, humidity, and windspeed are crucial in the transmission cycles of dengue disease. On the other hand, dengue cases decreased with higher levels of rainfall.ConclusionThe findings of this study will be helpful for policymakers to develop a climate-based warning system in Bangladesh.

Project description:BackgroundDengue virus (DENV) activity has been reported in Dhaka, Bangladesh since the early 1960s with the greatest burden of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever cases observed in 2000. Since this time, the intensity of dengue activity has varied from year to year, and its determining factors remained relatively unknown. In light of such gaps in knowledge, the main objectives of this study were to determine the magnitude of seroprevalence and seroconversion among the surveyed population, and establish the individual/household level risk factors for the presence of DENV antibodies among all age groups of target populations in the city of Dhaka.Methodology/principal findingsConsidering the lack of fine scale investigations on the factors driving dengue activity in Bangladesh, a prospective cohort study involving serological surveys was undertaken with participant interviews and blood donation across the city of Dhaka in 2012. Study participants were recruited from 12 of 90 wards and blood samples were collected during both the pre-monsoon (n = 1125) and post-monsoon (n = 600) seasons of 2012. The findings revealed that the seroprevalence in all pre-monsoon samples was 80.0% (900/1125) while the seropositivity in the pre-monsoon samples that had paired post-monsoon samples was 83.3% (503/600). Of the 97 paired samples that were negative at the pre-monsoon time point, 56 were positive at the post-monsoon time point. This resulted in a seroprevalence of 93.2% (559/600) among individuals tested during the post-monsoon period. Seroprevalence trended higher with age with children exhibiting a lower seropositivity as compared to adults. Results from this study also indicated that DENV strains were the only flaviviruses circulating in Dhaka in 2012. A multivariate analysis revealed that age, possession of indoor potted plants, and types of mosquito control measures were significant factors associated with DENV seroprevalence; while attendance in public/mass gatherings, and use of mosquito control measures were significantly associated with DENV seroconversion after adjusting for all other variables.Conclusions/significanceOur study suggests that there is a high level of endemic dengue virus circulation in the city of Dhaka which has resulted in significant DENV seroprevalence among its residents. Seropositivity increased with age, however, a substantial proportion of children are at risk for DENV infections. Our serological analysis also documents considerable DENV seroconversion among study participants which indicates that a large proportion of the population in the city of Dhaka were newly exposed to DENV during the study period (pre-and post-monsoon 2012). High levels of seroconversion suggest that there was an intense circulation of DENV in 2012 and this may have resulted in a significant risk for viral associated illness. Findings of our study further indicated that home-based interventions, such as removing indoor potted plants and increased bed net use, in addition to vector control measures in public parks, would reduce exposure to DENV and further decrease risk of viral associated disease.

Project description:Dengue, the most important mosquito-borne viral disease of humans is a recurring global health problem. In Bangladesh, dengue outbreaks are on the increase despite the efforts of government and it is not clear what the understanding of the general Dhaka population towards dengue fever is. Knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) studies are essential guides in public health interventions. Hence, using KAP, this study aims to assess patient-perspectives with regards to factors associated with dengue, as well as investigate the associated factors between the two corporations in Dhaka. A Hospital-based cross-sectional study of 242 fever patients from two city-corporations in Dhaka (Dhaka North City Corporations, DNCC (n = 91, 37.6%) and Dhaka South City Corporation, DSCC (n = 151, 62.4%) was conducted using pre-tested KAP items. Wilcoxon's Rank Sum was used to determine the KAP by DNCC, DSCC and both corporations and multivariate Poisson regression analyses. The two corporations were analysed separately due to the differences in income distribution, concentration of slums, hospitals and clinics. The study found that more than half of the study population were knowledgeable about dengue (mean percentage scores was 52%), possess an appropriate and acceptable attitude towards the disease (69.2%), and about two thirds of the respondents (71.4%) engaged in practices towards its prevention. After adjusting for the potential cofounders, the factors associated with KAP about dengue fever varied between DNCC and DSCC; with duration of residency and use of mosquito nets were associated with knowledge in the north while income class and age were associated with knowledge and attitude in the south. In the pooled analysis (combining both corporations), knowledge of dengue was associated with good practice towards dengue fever among the respondents. The duration of residence in Dhaka (10+ years), not using mosquito nets and length of time spent in the hospital (7+ days) due to dengue, and decreased knowledge (Adjusted coefficient (β) = -0.01, 95%CI: -0.02, -0.01) were associated with attitude towards dengue in DNCC. On the other hand, middle-high income class, age (40+ years) and increased knowledge were associated with practice towards dengue in DSCC (β = 0.02, 95%CI: 0.01, 0.03). Efforts to increase knowledge about dengue fever through education by the administrations of both corporations would benefit from targeting these high-risk groups for a more sustainable outcome.

Project description:BackgroundDengue virus (DENV) infection is one of the biggest challenges for human health in the world. In addition, a secondary DENV infection sometimes causes dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), which frequently leads to death. For this reason, accurate diagnosis record management is useful for prediction of DHF. Therefore, the demand for DENV rapid diagnosis tests (RDTs) is increasing because these tests are easy and rapid to use. However, commercially available RDTs often show low sensitivity for DENV and cross-reactivity against other flaviviruses, especially Zika virus (ZIKV).MethodsWe developed two types of novel DENV non-structural protein 1 (NS1) detection RDTs, designated TKK-1st and TKK-2nd kits. Specificities of the monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) used in these kits were confirmed by enzyme-linked immuno-sorbent assay (ELISA), dot blot, and western blot using recombinant NS1 proteins and synthetic peptides. For evaluation of sensitivity, specificity, and cross-reactivity of the novel DENV NS1 RDTs, we first used cultured DENV and other flaviviruses, ZIKV and Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV). We then used clinical specimens obtained in Bangladesh in 2017 for further evaluation of kit sensitivity and specificity in comparison with commercially available RDTs. In addition, RNA extracted from sera were used for viral genome sequencing and genotyping.ResultsEpitopes of three out of four MAbs used in the two novel RDTs were located in amino acid positions 100 to 122 in the NS1 protein, a region that shows low levels of homology with other flaviviruses. Our new kits showed high levels of sensitivity against various serotypes and genotypes of DENV and exhibited high levels of specificity without cross-reactivity against ZIKV and JEV. In clinical specimens, our RDTs showed sensitivities of 96.0% (145/151, TKK-1st kit) and 96.7% (146/151, TKK-2nd kit), and specificities of 98.0% (98/100, TKK-1st kit and TKK-2nd kit). On the other hand, in the case of the commercially available SD Bioline RDT, sensitivity was 83.4% (126/151) and specificity was 99.0% (99/100) against the same clinical specimens.ConclusionsOur novel DENV NS1-targeting RDTs demonstrated high levels of sensitivity and lacked cross-reactivity against ZIKV and JEV compared with commercially available RDTs.

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Interaction of Mean Temperature and Daily Fluctuation Influences Dengue Incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

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Interaction of Mean Temperature and Daily Fluctuation Influences Dengue Incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh.

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