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A dynamic transmission model with age-dependent infectiousness and reactivation for cytomegalovirus in the United States: Potential impact of vaccination strategies on congenital infection.

ABSTRACT: We present an age-structured dynamic transmission model for cytomegalovirus (CMV) in the United States, based on natural history and available data, primarily aiming to combine the available qualitative and quantitative knowledge toward more complex modeling frameworks to better reflect the underlying biology and epidemiology of the CMV infection. The model structure explicitly accounts for primary infections, reactivations and re-infections. Duration of infectiousness and likelihood of reactivation were both assumed to be age-dependent, and natural reduction in the re-infection risk following primary infection was included. We used an empirical social contact matrix (POLYMOD-based) as support for CMV transmission between different age groups. The baseline model reproduced well the age-stratified seroprevalence data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III) used for calibration. The model was further used to explore the potential impact of hypothetical vaccination on reducing congenital CMV infection under various vaccine profiles and vaccination scenarios. Our preliminary model-based simulations suggested that while infant vaccination may represent an attractive way to reduce congenital CMV infection over time, adolescent female vaccination with an adequate routine booster platform may, under certain conditions, provide an alternative. However, for such tools to be considered toward actual decision-making, enhanced validations based on additional studies and data would be further necessary. The modeling framework presented in this paper was designed to be sufficiently general and flexible, such that it can allow for further adaptations to reflect new knowledge or data that may become available in the future.

SUBMITTER: Hogea C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4514193 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A dynamic transmission model with age-dependent infectiousness and reactivation for cytomegalovirus in the United States: Potential impact of vaccination strategies on congenital infection.

Hogea Cosmina C Dieussaert Ilse I Van Effelterre Thierry T Guignard Adrienne A Mols Johann J

Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics 20150101 7

We present an age-structured dynamic transmission model for cytomegalovirus (CMV) in the United States, based on natural history and available data, primarily aiming to combine the available qualitative and quantitative knowledge toward more complex modeling frameworks to better reflect the underlying biology and epidemiology of the CMV infection. The model structure explicitly accounts for primary infections, reactivations and re-infections. Duration of infectiousness and likelihood of reactiva ...[more]

PMID: 25984886

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Project description:Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) infections cause more children to have permanent disabilities than Down Syndrome, Fetal Alcohol Syndrome, Spina Bifida, and pediatric HIV/AIDS combined. The risk of infection during pregnancy can be significantly decreased using universal precautions, such as thorough handwashing and cleansing of surfaces and objects that have come into contact with infected body fluids. Children under 3 years of age are commonly asymptomatic excretors of CMV, with the highest viral loads present in saliva. Pediatric therapists have regular close contact with young children, and are thus likely at elevated occupational risk of acquiring CMV. Our objective was to evaluate therapist knowledge of cCMV and its transmission. We recruited American Occupational Therapy Association (AOTA) and American Physical Therapy Association (APTA) members via electronic newsletters and printed flyers from April to September 2015. Participants completed an online, anonymous 24-question survey using Survey Monkey. We compared responses between groups and previously published CMV awareness data using binomial tests of difference of proportions and multiple logistic regression. Our study identified both a low level of therapist awareness and poor demonstrated understanding of cCMV. Self-reported cCMV awareness amongst therapists was greater than awareness in the general population, and equivalent to awareness amongst health care professionals. Whereas 52% of participants self-reported awareness of cCMV, only 18% demonstrated understanding of the behavioral modes of CMV transmission. Fewer therapists reported awareness of cCMV than other, less prevalent conditions. Higher levels of health risk knowledge were associated with greater contact with children. Most participants reported learning about cCMV from the workplace. The knowledge gaps between self-reported awareness of cCMV and demonstrated understanding of modes of transmission described by our results emphasize the need for additional training of therapists. cCMV is preventable, and accurate knowledge of modes of transmission is crucial for the health of practitioners and clients.

Project description:ImportanceCongenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) has received far less clinical and public health attention as a teratogenic infection than the Zika virus epidemic. However, cCMV may be responsible for a large fraction of microcephaly cases in the United States.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between cCMV and the prevalence at birth of microcephaly in the United States.Design, setting, and participantsThis population-based cohort study included pregnant women and their newborns identified in 2 insurance claims databases from the United States: Medicaid Analytic eXtract (January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2013) and IBM Research MarketScan, a database for employer-sponsored private health insurance (January 1, 2011, to September 30, 2015). All pregnancies that resulted in live births in women with full health benefits were included. Analysis began June 2016 and ended May 2020.ExposuresCongenital cytomegalovirus infection documented in inpatient or outpatient newborn claims records.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was microcephaly at birth documented in inpatient or outpatient newborn and/or maternal claims records. Cases with chromosomal abnormalities or neural tube defects were excluded. The association between cCMV and microcephaly was estimated in the pooled cohort using prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CIs.ResultsIn the pooled cohort of 2 338 580 pregnancies (2 075 410 pregnancies [88.7%] were among women younger than 35 years), 336 infants (0.014%) had a cCMV diagnosis. The prevalence of microcephaly among newborns with and without a cCMV diagnosis was 655 and 2.8 per 10 000 live births, respectively (PR, 232; 95% CI, 154-350). After restricting to CMV-tested newborns (572 [0.024%]) to correct for preferential testing of infants with microcephaly, the PR was 15 (95% CI, 5.2-41). However, this PR is biased if other cCMV-related outcomes (eg, hearing loss) trigger testing because cCMV prevalence in tested infants, with ([46%]) or without microcephaly (22 of 559 [3.9%]), would overestimate that in the source population. Therefore, the prevalence of cCMV in overall infants with microcephaly (22 of 669 [3.2%]) was compared with that from an external unbiased sample of US infants screened at birth (449 of 100 332 [0.45%]) to estimate a PR of 7.4 (95% CI, 4.8-11.5) as a conservative lower bound.Conclusions and relevanceCongenital cytomegalovirus infection increases the prevalence of microcephaly at birth by at least 7-fold. Prevention of CMV infection during pregnancy might substantially reduce the number of newborns with microcephaly and other cCMV-related outcomes in the United States.

Dataset Information

A dynamic transmission model with age-dependent infectiousness and reactivation for cytomegalovirus in the United States: Potential impact of vaccination strategies on congenital infection.

Publications

A dynamic transmission model with age-dependent infectiousness and reactivation for cytomegalovirus in the United States: Potential impact of vaccination strategies on congenital infection.

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