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What Are the Prognostic Factors for Radiographic Progression of Knee Osteoarthritis? A Meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT: A previous systematic review on prognostic factors for knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression showed associations for generalized OA and hyaluronic acid levels. Knee pain, radiographic severity, sex, quadriceps strength, knee injury, and regular sport activities were not associated. It has been a decade since the literature search of that review and many studies have been performed since then investigating prognostic factors for radiographic knee OA progression.The purpose of this study is to provide an updated systematic review of available evidence regarding prognostic factors for radiographic knee OA progression.We searched for observational studies in MEDLINE and EMBASE. Key words were: knee, osteoarthritis (or arthritis, or arthrosis, or degenerative joint disease), progression (or prognosis, or precipitate, or predictive), and case-control (or cohort, or longitudinal, or follow-up). Studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were assessed for methodologic quality according to established criteria for reviews on prognostic factors in musculoskeletal disorders. Data were extracted and results were pooled if possible or summarized according to a best-evidence synthesis. A total of 1912 additional articles were identified; 43 met our inclusion criteria. The previous review contained 36 articles, thus providing a new total of 79 articles. Seventy-two of the included articles were scored high quality, the remaining seven were low quality.The pooled odds ratio (OR) of two determinants showed associations with knee OA progression: baseline knee pain (OR, 2.38 [95% CI, 1.74-3.27) and Heberden nodes (OR, 2.66 [95% CI, 1.46-8.84]). Our best-evidence synthesis showed strong evidence that varus alignment, serum hyaluronic acid, and tumor necrosis factor-? are associated with knee OA progression. There is strong evidence that sex, former knee injury, quadriceps strength, smoking, running, and regular performance of sports are not associated with knee OA progression. Evidence for the majority of determined associations, however, was limited, conflicting, or inconclusive.Baseline knee pain, presence of Heberden nodes, varus alignment, and high levels of serum markers hyaluronic acid and tumor necrosis factor-? predict knee OA progression. Sex, knee injury, and quadriceps strength, among others, did not predict knee OA progression. Large variation remains in definitions of knee OA and knee OA progression. Clinical studies should use more consistent definitions of these factors to facilitate data pooling by future meta-analyses.

SUBMITTER: Bastick AN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4523522 | biostudies-literature | 2015 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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What Are the Prognostic Factors for Radiographic Progression of Knee Osteoarthritis? A Meta-analysis.

Bastick Alex N AN Belo Janneke N JN Runhaar Jos J Bierma-Zeinstra Sita M A SM

Clinical orthopaedics and related research 20150521 9

<h4>Background</h4>A previous systematic review on prognostic factors for knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression showed associations for generalized OA and hyaluronic acid levels. Knee pain, radiographic severity, sex, quadriceps strength, knee injury, and regular sport activities were not associated. It has been a decade since the literature search of that review and many studies have been performed since then investigating prognostic factors for radiographic knee OA progression.<h4>Questions/pur ...[more]

PMID: 25995176

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Project description:BackgroundThe aim of this study was to identify modifiable clinical factors associated with radiographic osteoarthritis progression over 1 to 2 years in people with painful medial knee osteoarthritis.MethodsA longitudinal study was conducted within a randomised controlled trial, the "Long-term Evaluation of Glucosamine Sulfate" (LEGS study). Recruitment occurred in 2007-2009, with 1- and 2-year follow-up assessments by blinded assessors. Community-dwelling people with chronic knee pain (≥4/10) and medial tibiofemoral narrowing (but retaining >2mm medial joint space width) on radiographs were recruited. From 605 participants, follow-up data were available for 498 (82%, mean [sd] age 60 [8] years). Risk factors evaluated at baseline were pain, physical function, use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), statin use, not meeting physical activity guidelines, presence of Heberden's nodes, history of knee surgery/trauma, and manual occupation. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted adjusting for age, sex, obesity, high blood pressure, allocation to glucosamine and chondroitin treatment, and baseline structural disease severity (Kellgren and Lawrence grade, joint space width, and varus alignment). Radiographic osteoarthritis progression was defined as joint space narrowing ≥0.5mm over 1 to 2 years (latest follow-up used where available).ResultsRadiographic osteoarthritis progression occurred in 58 participants (12%). Clinical factors independently associated with radiographic progression were the use of NSAIDs, adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) 2.05 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.8), and not meeting physical activity guidelines, OR 2.07 (95% CI 0.9 to 4.7).ConclusionsAmong people with mild radiographic knee osteoarthritis, people who use NSAIDs and/or do not meet physical activity guidelines have a greater risk of radiographic osteoarthritis progression.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00513422 . This original study trial was registered a priori, on August 8, 2007. The current study hypothesis arose before inspection of the data.

Project description:BackgroundOsteoarthritis (OA) is a disease with multiple endotypes. A hallmark of OA is loss of cartilage; however, it is evident that the rate of cartilage loss differs among patients, which may partly be attributed to differential capacity for cartilage repair. We hypothesize that a low cartilage repair endotype exists and that such endotypes are more likely to progress radiographically. The aim of this study is to examine the associations of level of cartilage formation with OA severity and radiographic OA progression. We used the blood-based marker PRO-C2, reflecting type II collagen formation, to assess levels of cartilage formation.Materials and methodsThe type II collagen propeptide PRO-C2 was measured in the serum/plasma of knee OA subjects from New York University (NYU, n = 106) and a subcohort of the phase III oral salmon calcitonin (sCT) trial SMC021-2301 (SMC, n = 147). Risk of radiographic medial joint space narrowing (JSN) over 24 months was compared between quartiles (very low, low, moderate, and high) of PRO-C2. Associations were adjusted for age, gender, BMI, race, baseline pain levels, and baseline joint space width.ResultsIn both the NYU and SMC cohorts, subjects with low PRO-C2 levels had greater JSN compared with subjects with high PRO-C2. Mean difference in JSN between subjects with very low and high levels of PRO-C2 was 0.65 mm (p = 0.002), corresponding to a 3.4 (1.4-8.6)-fold higher risk of progression. There was no significant effect of sCT treatment, compared with placebo, on JSN over 2 years before stratification based on baseline PRO-C2. However, there were proportionately fewer progressors in the sCT arm of the very low/low PRO-C2 group compared with the moderate/high group (Chi squared = 6.5, p = 0.011).ConclusionSerum/plasma level of type II collagen formation, PRO-C2, may be an objective indicator of a low cartilage repair endotype, displaying radiographic progression and superior response to a proanabolic drug.Level of evidenceLevel III post hoc exploratory analysis of one longitudinal cohort and a sub-study from one phase III clinical trial.

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What Are the Prognostic Factors for Radiographic Progression of Knee Osteoarthritis? A Meta-analysis.

Publications

What Are the Prognostic Factors for Radiographic Progression of Knee Osteoarthritis? A Meta-analysis.

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