Dataset Information

Quantifying the Socio-Economic Benefits of Reducing Industrial Dietary Trans Fats: Modelling Study.

ABSTRACT: Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality, generating a large and unequal burden of disease. Dietary trans fatty acids (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor, yet to be addressed in the UK (approximately 1% daily energy) as successfully as in other nations. Potential outcomes of such measures, including effects upon health inequalities, have not been well quantified. We modelled the potential effects of specific reductions in TFA intake on CHD mortality, CHD related admissions, and effects upon socioeconomic inequalities.We extended the previously validated IMPACTsec model, to estimate the potential effects of reductions (0.5% & 1% reductions in daily energy) in TFA intake in England and Wales, stratified by age, sex and socioeconomic circumstances. We estimated reductions in expected CHD deaths in 2030 attributable to these two specific reductions. Output measures were deaths prevented or postponed, life years gained and hospital admissions. A 1% reduction in TFA intake energy intake would generate approximately 3,900 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3,300-4,500) fewer deaths, 10,000 (8,800-10,300) (7% total) fewer hospital admissions and 37,000 (30,100-44,700) life years gained. This would also reduce health inequalities, preventing five times as many deaths and gaining six times as many life years in the most deprived quintile compared with the most affluent. A more modest reduction (0.5%) would still yield substantial health gains.Reducing intake of industrial TFA could substantially decrease CHD mortality and hospital admissions, and gain tens of thousands of life years. Crucially, this policy could also reduce health inequalities. UK strategies should therefore aim to minimise industrial TFA intake.

SUBMITTER: Pearson-Stuttard J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4527777 | biostudies-literature | 2015

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Quantifying the Socio-Economic Benefits of Reducing Industrial Dietary Trans Fats: Modelling Study.

Pearson-Stuttard Jonathan J Critchley Julia J Capewell Simon S O'Flaherty Martin M

PloS one 20150806 8

<h4>Background</h4>Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality, generating a large and unequal burden of disease. Dietary trans fatty acids (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor, yet to be addressed in the UK (approximately 1% daily energy) as successfully as in other nations. Potential outcomes of such measures, including effects upon health inequalities, have not been well quantified. We modelled the potential effects of specific reductions in TFA intake on CHD mo ...[more]

PMID: 26247848

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundStrong evidence indicates that excessive time spent sitting (sedentary behaviour) is detrimentally associated with multiple chronic diseases. Sedentary behaviour is prevalent among adults in Australia and has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating the potential health benefits and healthcare cost saving associated with reductions in population sitting time could be useful for the development of public health initiatives.MethodsA sedentary behaviour model was developed and incorporated into an existing proportional, multi-state, life table Markov model (ACE-Obesity Policy model). This model simulates the 2019 Australian population (age 18 years and above) and estimates the incidence, prevalence and mortality of five diseases associated with sedentary behaviour (type 2 diabetes, stroke, endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer). Key model inputs included population sitting time estimates from the Australian National Health Survey 2014-2015, healthcare cost data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2015) and relative risk estimates assessed by conducting literature reviews and meta-analyses. Scenario analyses estimated the potential change in disease incidence as a result of changes in population sitting time. This, in turn, resulted in estimated improvements in long term health outcomes (Health-adjusted life years (HALYs)) and healthcare cost-savings.ResultsAccording to the model, if all Australian adults sat no more than 4 h per day, the total HALYs gained would be approximately 17,211 with health care cost savings of approximately A$185 million over one year. Under a more feasible scenario, where sitting time was reduced in adults who sit 4 or more hours per day by approximately 36 min per person per day (based on the results of the Stand Up Victoria randomised controlled trial), potential HALYs gained were estimated to be 3,670 and healthcare cost saving could reach A$39 million over one year.ConclusionsExcessive sedentary time results in considerable population health burden in Australia. This paper describes the development of the first Australian sedentary behaviour model that can be used to predict the long term consequences of interventions targeted at reducing sedentary behaviour through reductions in sitting time. These estimates may be used by decision makers when prioritising healthcare resources and investing in preventative public health initiatives.

Project description:BackgroundA large proportion of disease burden is attributed to behavioural risk factors. However, funding for public health programs in Australia remains limited. Government and non-government organisations are interested in the productivity effects on society from reducing chronic diseases. We aimed to estimate the potential health status and economic benefits to society following a feasible reduction in the prevalence of six behavioural risk factors: tobacco smoking; inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption; high risk alcohol consumption; high body mass index; physical inactivity; and intimate partner violence.MethodsSimulation models were developed for the 2008 Australian population. A realistic reduction in current risk factor prevalence using best available evidence with expert consensus was determined. Avoidable disease, deaths, Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and health sector costs were estimated. Productivity gains included workforce (friction cost method), household production and leisure time. Multivariable uncertainty analyses and correction for the joint effects of risk factors on health status were undertaken. Consistent methods and data sources were used.ResultsOver the lifetime of the 2008 Australian adult population, total opportunity cost savings of AUD2,334 million (95% Uncertainty Interval AUD1,395 to AUD3,347; 64% in the health sector) were found if feasible reductions in the risk factors were achieved. There would be 95,000 fewer DALYs (a reduction of about 3.6% in total DALYs for Australia); 161,000 less new cases of disease; 6,000 fewer deaths; a reduction of 5 million days in workforce absenteeism; and 529,000 increased days of leisure time.ConclusionsReductions in common behavioural risk factors may provide substantial benefits to society. For example, the total potential annual cost savings in the health sector represent approximately 2% of total annual health expenditure in Australia. Our findings contribute important new knowledge about productivity effects, including the potential for increased household and leisure activities, associated with chronic disease prevention. The selection of targets for risk factor prevalence reduction is an important policy decision and a useful approach for future analyses. Similar approaches could be applied in other countries if the data are available.

Project description:Backgroundtrans-fatty acids (TFAs) are a well-known risk factor of ischemic heart disease (IHD). In Australia, the highest TFA intake is concentrated to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. Elimination of industrial TFA (iTFA) from the Australian food supply could result in reduced IHD mortality and morbidity while improving health equity. However, such legislation could lead to additional costs for both government and food industry. Thus, we assessed the potential cost-effectiveness, health gains, and effects on health equality of an iTFA ban from the Australian food supply.Methods and findingsMarkov cohort models were used to estimate the impact on IHD burden and health equity, as well as the cost-effectiveness of a national ban of iTFA in Australia. Intake of TFA was assessed using the 2011-2012 Australian National Nutrition and Physical Activity Survey. The IHD burden attributable to TFA was calculated by comparing the current level of TFA intake to a counterfactual setting where consumption was lowered to a theoretical minimum distribution with a mean of 0.5% energy per day (corresponding to TFA intake only from nonindustrial sources, e.g., dairy foods). Policy costs, avoided IHD events and deaths, health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained, and changes in IHD-related healthcare costs saved were estimated over 10 years and lifetime of the adult Australian population. Cost-effectiveness was assessed by calculation of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using net policy cost and HALYs gained. Health benefits and healthcare cost changes were also assessed in subgroups based on socioeconomic status, defined by Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) quintile, and remoteness. Compared to a base case of no ban and current TFA intakes, elimination of iTFA was estimated to prevent 2,294 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,765; 2,851) IHD deaths and 9,931 (95% UI: 8,429; 11,532) IHD events over the first 10 years. The greatest health benefits were accrued to the most socioeconomically disadvantaged quintiles and among Australians living outside of major cities. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving (net cost <0 AUD) or cost-effective (i.e., ICER < AUD 169,361/HALY) regardless of the time horizon, with ICERs of 1,073 (95% UI: dominant; 3,503) and 1,956 (95% UI: 1,010; 2,750) AUD/HALY over 10 years and lifetime, respectively. Findings were robust across several sensitivity analyses. Key limitations of the study include the lack of recent data of TFA intake and the small sample sizes used to estimate intakes in subgroups. As with all simulation models, our study does not prove that a ban of iTFA will prevent IHD, rather, it provides the best quantitative estimates and corresponding uncertainty of a potential effect in the absence of stronger direct evidence.ConclusionsOur model estimates that a ban of iTFAs could avert substantial numbers of IHD events and deaths in Australia and would likely be a highly cost-effective strategy to reduce social-economic and urban-rural inequalities in health. These findings suggest that elimination of iTFA can cost-effectively improve health and health equality even in countries with low iTFA intake.

Project description:BackgroundLinear growth is an important outcome of child development with implications for economic productivity. Enteric infections, particularly Shigella, have been linked to linear growth faltering (LGF). However, benefits from potential reductions in LGF are rarely included in economic analyses of enteric infections. We aimed to quantify the economic benefits of vaccination related to reduced Shigella-attributable disease and associated LGF compared with the net costs of a vaccine programme.MethodsIn this benefit-cost analysis, we modelled productivity benefits in 102 low-income and middle-income countries that had recent stunting estimates available, at least one Shigella-attributable death annually, and available economic data, particularly on gross national income and growth rate projections. We modelled benefits strictly related to linear growth improvements and no other benefits associated with reducing diarrhoeal burden. The effect size in each country was calculated as shifts in height-for-age Z score (HAZ), representing population average changes for preventing Shigella-attributable less-severe diarrhoea and moderate-to-severe diarrhoea separately for children younger than 5 years. Benefits data were calculated per country and combined with estimated net costs of the vaccine programme in the form of benefit-cost ratios (BCRs); BCRs above parity, or $1 in benefits per $1 in costs (with a 10% margin representing borderline results: 1·10:1), were considered cost-beneficial. Countries were aggregated for analysis by WHO region, World Bank income category, and eligibility for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.FindingsIn the base-case scenario, all regions exhibited cost-beneficial results, with the South-East Asia region and Gavi-eligible countries exhibiting the highest BCRs (21·67 for the South-East Asia region and 14·45 for Gavi-eligible countries), and the Eastern Mediterranean region yielding the lowest BCRs (2·90). All regions exhibited cost-beneficial results from vaccination, except in more conservative scenarios (eg, those assuming early retirement ages and higher discount rates). Our findings were sensitive to assumed returns for increased height, assumptions about vaccine efficacy against linear growth detriments, the anticipated shift in HAZ, and discount rate. Incorporating the productivity benefits of LGF reduction into existing cost-effectiveness estimates resulted in longer-term cost-savings in nearly all regions.InterpretationLGF is a secondary outcome of Shigella infection and reduction in LGF is not often quantified as a health or economic benefit of vaccination. However, even under conservative assumptions, a Shigella vaccine only moderately effective against LGF could pay for itself from productivity gains alone in some regions. We recommend that LGF be considered in future models assessing the economic and health impacts of interventions preventing enteric infections. Further research is needed on vaccine efficacy against LGF to inform such models.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

Project description:BackgroundLow socio-economic position is associated with consumption of lower quality diets, which may be partly explained by the cost of healthier diets. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the mediating role of dietary costs in the association between educational level and diet quality.MethodsWe used cross-sectional data from Dutch older adults (N = 9399) in the EPIC-NL cohort. Participants provided information about their own and their partners' highest attained educational level (as proxy for socio-economic position). Dietary behavior was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire from which we derived two diet-quality scores, including the Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet. Dietary cost estimates were based on food price data from food stores, and linked to reported consumption of food items. Multiple regression analyses and bootstrapping were used examine the mediating role of dietary cost in the association between educational level and diet quality.ResultsMean age of participants was 70 (SD: 10) years and 77% were women. Dietary costs significantly mediated the association between educational level and diet quality, except for high versus middle individual educational level and the DHD15-index. Depending on the dietary and educational indicator, dietary costs explained between 2 and 7% of the association between educational level and diet quality. Furthermore, associations were found to be modified by sex and age. For the DHD15-index, mediation effects were only present in females and adults older than 65 years, and for the DASH diet mediation effects were only present in females and strongest amongst adults older than 65 years compared to adults younger than 65 years.ConclusionDietary costs seems to play a modest role in explaining educational differences in diet quality in an older Dutch population. Further research is needed to investigate which other factors may explain SEP differences in diet quality.

Dataset Information

Quantifying the Socio-Economic Benefits of Reducing Industrial Dietary Trans Fats: Modelling Study.

Publications

Quantifying the Socio-Economic Benefits of Reducing Industrial Dietary Trans Fats: Modelling Study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets