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Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.

ABSTRACT: A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemiological features of the pandemic and also the actions of people responding to it, focusing only on three aspects of the system, namely, the fear of catching this serious disease, the impact on the economic activities and the compliance of the people to the mitigating measures adopted by the authorities. We apply the model to the specific case of Spain, since there are accurate data available about these three features. We focused on tourism as an example of the economic activity, since this sector of economy is one of the most likely to be affected by the restrictions imposed by the authorities, and because it represents an important part of Spanish economy. The results of numerical calculations agree with the empirical data in such a way that we can acquire a better insight of the different processes at play in such a complex situation, and also in other different circumstances.

SUBMITTER: Snellman JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10774333 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.

Snellman Jan E JE Barreiro Nadia L NL Barrio Rafael A RA Ventura Cecilia I CI Govezensky Tzipe T Kaski Kimmo K KK Korpi-Lagg Maarit J MJ

Scientific reports 20240108 1

A global disaster, such as the recent Covid-19 pandemic, affects every aspect of our lives and there is a need to investigate these highly complex phenomena if one aims to diminish their impact in the health of the population, as well as their socio-economic stability. In this paper we present an attempt to understand the role of the governmental authorities and the response of the rest of the population facing such emergencies. We present a mathematical model that takes into account the epidemi ...[more]

PMID: 38191603

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Project description:BackgroundIn many countries, the worldwide spread of COVID-19 has led to a near total stop of non-urgent, elective surgeries across all specialties during the first wave's peak of the pandemic. For providers of aesthetic surgery procedures or minimal invasive cosmetic treatments, this led to a huge socio-economic impact worldwide. In order to evaluate valid clinical management strategies for future pandemic events and to overcome the challenges imposed by the current pandemic, it is paramount to analyse the socio-economic effects caused by the COVID-19 crisis.MethodsAn online survey comprising 18 questions was sent out five times by e-mail to all members of the International Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery (ISAPS) between June and August 2020. The data set was statistically analyzed and grouped into an overall group and into subgroups of countries with high (n = 251) vs. low (n = 440) gross domestic product per capita (GDP p.c.) and five defined world regions (Europe (n = 214); North America (NA; n = 97); South America (SA; n = 206); Asia and Oceania (Asia + OC; n = 99); Africa and Middle East (Africa + ME; n = 75)).ResultsA total of 691 recipients completed the survey. The majority of the participants experienced severe operating restrictions resulting in a major drop of income from surgical patients. Low GDP p.c. countries experienced a bigger negative economic impact with less aesthetic (non-) surgical procedures, whereas the high GDP p.c. subgroup was less affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Most of the survey participants had already adopted the ISAPS guidelines for patient (pre-) appointment screening and clinical/patient-flow management. For surgical and non-surgical aesthetic procedures, in the high GDP p.c. subgroup more basic-level PPE (surgical mask) was used, whereas the low GDP p.c. subgroup relied more on advanced-level PPE (N-95 respirator mask or higher). Comparing the different world regions, Europe and Africa used more basic-level PPE.ConclusionsMeasurable differences in the socio-economic impact and in the adaptation of safety protocols between high and low GDP p.c. subgroups and between different world regions were present. Since the COVID-19 pandemic is an international crisis, aligned, expedient and universal actions should be taken.Level of evidence vThis journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine Ratings, please refer to Table of Contents or online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

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Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.

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Socio-economic pandemic modelling: case of Spain.

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